- Political Shifts in the East Regions: Examining Society's Fragmentation
Latest Update from the BBC on Sunday night was about the "Extreme Right Poised for Initial Election Victory in German State since World War II". Interestingly, in a region like Thuringia, the extreme-right party, AfD, is currently leading the pack. This marks a significant shift in the political landscape.
Author and political scientist Marcel Lewandowsky ("The Desires of the Populists") points out a crucial observation: the AfD and the recently formed Sahra Wagenknecht alliance are not simply protest parties. "Labeling it all as a reaction to the traffic light coalition is a short-term strategy, but it's not an accurate analysis," Lewandowsky stresses in conversation with the German Press Agency. "The traffic light coalition contributes to it, but similar trends have emerged in France, Austria, the Netherlands - it's not a German-exclusive phenomenon."
Research reveals that AfD voters are not solely protesting.
The idea that AfD voters in Thuringia and Saxony, considered far-right by the state's Office for the Protection of the Constitution, are merely voicing their discontent, is reassuring. However, Lewandowsky disagrees: "These voters support the AfD because they agree with their ideologies, particularly on migration and society. Moreover, the AfD promises a form of democratic representation, claiming it will restore the democracy that political elites have supposedly stripped away." Consequently, AfD voters do not see themselves as enemies of the constitution, but rather as the true advocates of democracy.
Communication and political scientist Andrea Römmele from the Hertie School in Berlin concurs: "For AfD voters, migration and security are their main concerns, and they see the AfD as the most competent in addressing these issues."
As per Lewandowsky's findings, a significant portion of AfD voters is shrouded in deep mistrust - mistrust of political elites, but also of others perceived as different: experts, journalists, academically educated city dwellers - "they are all generally viewed as enemies." This polarizing view has been bolstered during the COVID-19 pandemic.
In Saxony and Thuringia, even among young voters, the AfD leads uncontested. Generational researcher Rüdiger Maas interprets this as an indication of the AfD's normalization: "The AfD is not immediately viewed as far-right." Many young people identify as politically centrist but vote AfD.
Römmele identifies another East German peculiarity that has impacted the elections: "Compared to West Germany, the situation is more volatile. We have fewer people with strong party loyalty. This means: one is more open to change, to the moment." In the 2021 federal election, the SPD still performed relatively well in Thuringia and Saxony.
There's a striking difference between city and countryside: "In Erfurt and Jena, Leipzig and Dresden, the election results reflect those in West German cities, with a diverse, urban audience. And then you have the smaller and medium-sized cities and rural areas - and there's a world of difference between them." This insight comes from sociologist and bestselling author Steffen Mau ("Trigger Points").
Sociologist Mau: Politicians intentionally provoke the population
Mau, one of the most influential sociologists, speaks of a major turning point for three reasons: Firstly, because the options for the AfD have significantly increased. Secondly, because the political culture is "coarsening". And thirdly, because the pressure on other parties to form coalitions against the AfD is growing.
"These then become classic defensive coalitions meant to prevent the worst, but they come with substantial risks for these parties," Mau told dpa. Because each party must somewhat compromise its own principles and step back: "If you consider the CDU: If they now have to work with the BSW, a party from a completely different political spectrum, this has implications for the CDU nationwide, because it may also deter voters." So, defending against the AfD could also work in their favor again.
All of this seems to suggest that German society is shifting further apart. However, one of Mau's central tenets is: "The social divide is not already there, but it's created by political actors." The method for doing this is "stimulation", the deliberate pressing of certain buttons that heighten emotions - example "gender language" or "denture care for rejected asylum seekers". Then, the political debate becomes more heated, despite polls showing a broad consensus on key issues across various demographics.
"Polarization occurs mainly where political actors - I also call them polarization entrepreneurs - can successfully maintain group-distinguishing discourses over an extended period of time," says Mau. "For example, between 'green-leftist elites' and 'common sense' or between 'natives' and 'migrants'. Efforts are made to establish a social divide through 'culture war themes' like gendering and then exploit it in elections."
How about re-establishing communication with one another? Steffen Mau advocates for community councils, which are made up of local residents. The context: Many supporters of populist parties feel disconnected from the political system. At this juncture, community councils could become a valuable tool for engagement. They focus on real-world issues such as energy supply or urban development within a specific neighborhood. "The advantage is that these community councils are not tainted by the accusation that an elite clique has always been in control," Mau explains. Research indicates that council members eventually move past the initial excitement and engage in constructive, fact-based discussions. This approach should complement, rather than replace, democratic party politics. However, in East Germany, where political parties have been under attack, "this could serve as an additional wing to the democracy house."
As for political scientist Römele, he emphasizes the significance of preserving connections with various social groups in our daily lives. "Working from home is convenient, but it's essential that work still occurs in the office. That's where you encounter individuals with diverse perspectives, engage in conversations, and engage in dialogue. Afterward, there are sports clubs, choirs - these are the breeding grounds for democratic values. We all need to embrace this concept more thoroughly."
I'm not going to sugarcoat it: The findings suggest that there's a significant portion of German voters who hold deep-seated mistrust towards political elites and certain groups, leading them to support the AfD.
Despite the reassuring notion that AfD voters in Thuringia and Saxony are merely voicing their discontent, it's crucial to acknowledge that they support the AfD due to agreement with their ideologies, particularly on migration and society. They also perceive the AfD as a representation of democracy that has supposedly been stripped away by political elites.
