Election to the National Assembly - Political quake in Paris: Left in the lead, prime minister resigns
On the day following the unexpected result of the parliamentary election, France must reorganize itself. The right-wing shift is weaker than anticipated - in the newly elected National Assembly, a Left Alliance is expected to be the strongest force. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced his resignation as a consequence. However, a government-majority is not yet in sight, and the Left is lacking a common leadership. It is also uncertain what the result means for Germany and Europe.
The New Popular Front from the Left, Communists, Socialists, and Greens could, according to Institute Ipsos and Ifop estimates, obtain between 177 and 192 of the 577 seats - causing a great surprise.
The Centre-Ground of State President Emmanuel Macron and Attal, on the other hand, appears to have dropped from previously 250 to now 152 to 169 mandates. The National Rally (RN) of Marine Le Pen and her allies grew from lastly 88 to 138 to 145 seats - and thus could only land on the third place. The absolute majority of 289 seats could not be reached by any of the groups.
Celebrations and Riots
In cities across the country, riots occurred during demonstrations in the night. In Paris, thousands of people gathered on the Place de la République in the heart of the capital to celebrate the victory of the Left Alliance. However, some demonstrators clashed with law enforcement officers, who then used tear gas. Barricades made of wood were set on fire. Riots also occurred in Lille, Rennes, and Nantes.
The Left sees government responsibility - despite deep divisions
France's divided Left had united for the election as the New Popular Front just a few weeks ago. In the European election in early June, the parties had run separately. Disagreements within the Left mainly concern the left-wing leadership figure Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The populist, who makes Euroskeptic statements and advocates a clearly populist course, is heavily criticized within his own party.
The Left Alliance lacks clear leadership and a common program.
The Left announced a government claim after their surprise victory. "We have won and now we will govern," said Green Party General Secretary Marine Tondelier. Mélenchon also demanded that Macron invite the Left Alliance to govern.
Le Pen looks ahead
Initially, a landslide victory of the right-wing National Rally (RN) of Marine Le Pen was expected. After the first round of voting a week ago, forecasts still showed the RN close to the absolute majority and potentially able to form the next government. A government of the Right-Nationalists - a likely nightmare scenario for Germany and the EU - seems to have been averted for the time being. The RN made significant gains nonetheless.
Le Pen gave herself a calm assessment after the initial estimates: "The tide is rising further and our victory is only postponed." RN leader Jordan Bardella also stated that his party was the only alternative to the supposed "unity party" of the left-wing bloc and the Centre-Forces.
Links and Macron's Center-Forces formed an alliance before the second round of elections to prevent each other from taking votes away from the RN and helping it win locally. Several candidates from the Left and Liberals withdrew from the races, urging their voters to vote against the RN in every case.
Great Coalition or Minority Government?
At this point, it's unclear what will happen next. Whether the Left can form a Minority Government on their own is uncertain. Other factions could bring down such a government through a vote of no confidence.
The Left could also try to gain support from the Center-Forces - either as a Minority Government with tolerance or in some form of Grand Coalition. Given the opposing political alignments, however, it's uncertain if this would be possible. The Chief of the Socialists, Olivier Faure, has already stated there should be no "Coalition of Opposites."
It's uncertain if President Macron will accept a resignation from Attal and appoint a Leftist as Premier. In such a scenario, Macron would lose power, while the Premier, who leads the governmental affairs, would become more important.
What this would mean for Germany and Europe depends largely on who comes to power. The Left coalition holds various contrasting positions on major political issues.
Uncertain Future
If neither camp finds a parliamentary majority, the current government could temporarily carry on with the administrative duties or an expert government could be appointed. France faces the risk of political standstill in such a situation. A dissolution of the Parliament by Macron and a new election are only possible in July 2025.
- The Left Alliance, expected to be the strongest force in the new National Assembly in Paris, may struggle to find a common leadership and program.
- Despite the surprising victory in the parliamentary election, a government-majority is not yet within reach for the Left Alliance in France.
- The National Rally (RN) of Marine Le Pen, despite significant gains, fell short of reaching the absolute majority in the National Assembly, preventing a right-wing government.
- In cities like Lille, Rennes, and Nantes, riots occurred during celebrations and demonstrations following the Left Alliance's victory.
- The Centre-Forces and Emmanuel Macron's party saw a decrease in seats, dropping from 250 to 152 to 169 mandates in the newly elected National Assembly.
- The New Popular Front, a Left-wing alliance consisting of Communists, Socialists, and Greens, could secure between 177 and 192 seats in the National Assembly.
- Gabriel Attal resigned following the unexpected result of the parliamentary election, citing the weaker-than-anticipated right-wing shift.
- If the Left Alliance forms a Minority Government, they may face challenges from other factions in Parliament, potentially leading to a vote of no confidence.
- The Centre-Forces and RN formed an alliance prior to the second round of elections to prevent each other from taking votes away from Marine Le Pen's National Rally.
- The future of France and Europe remains uncertain due to the contrasting positions held by various political parties within the newly elected National Assembly, such as the Left Alliance, Centre-Forces, and RN.
