Poland and Ukraine - two steps forward, one step back
The first F-16 combat jets have arrived in Ukraine. However, the NATO's cautious approach in supporting Ukraine is evident in the recently signed Polish-Ukrainian security agreement. Even though it indirectly involves the security of a NATO member state.
By the end of June, Ukraine had already signed security agreements with the USA, Germany, and 17 other countries, as well as the European Union. In early July, another contract was added. During his visit to Warsaw, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk signed a security agreement that gained international attention due to the establishment of a "Ukrainian Legion" on Polish soil, for which Ukrainians living abroad can volunteer and be trained and equipped by Poland.
Less attention was given to another clause that would have elevated Poland's and the West's support for Russia-attacked Ukraine to a new level, although not as far as the deployment of ground troops suggested by French President Emmanuel Macron a few months ago. However, the clause in the Polish-Ukrainian contract and the subsequent reactions also show how cautious NATO is in supporting Ukraine due to concerns about escalation with Russia.
"The parties agree to continue the bilateral dialogue and with other partners to assess the necessity and feasibility of a possible interception of missiles and aircraft shot down in the direction of the territory of the Republic of Poland in the Ukrainian airspace, taking into account the procedures agreed and required by the countries and organizations involved," the agreement states. In simpler terms, in coordination with NATO and its allies, Poland would have the right to shoot down missiles heading towards its territory while still in Ukrainian airspace.
Repeatedly violated Polish airspace
"Whoever defends Ukraine today, defends themselves," Polish Prime Minister Tusk said at the contract signing. This clause emphasizes that particularly, as there have been several incidents:
- In November 2022, a Ukrainian air defense missile crashed in the village of Przewodów, located near the Polish-Ukrainian border, killing two people.
- Russian missiles launched against Ukraine have repeatedly violated Polish airspace over the past two years.
- In December 2022, a Russian missile even crashed near Bydgoszcz, Poland's eighth-largest city, located northwest of Warsaw and closer to Germany than Ukraine. The subsequent cover-up by the then PiS defense minister, Mariusz Błaszczak, was one of the reasons for the conservative nationalists' defeat in last fall's elections.
Not surprisingly, the idea of Poland shooting down rockets is particularly popular in Ukraine. Just days before the signing of the Polish-Ukrainian security agreement, Olena Kondratiuk, deputy speaker of the Ukrainian parliament, used a visit to Lithuania to discuss the topic with Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska, marshal of the Polish parliament's lower house. Kondratiuk made it clear why Ukraine could benefit from Poland's help: it would be a way to "protect the airspace in Ukraine's border regions using Poland's air defense," as she explained.
The topic swept under the rug
Despite Donald Tusk's emphasis that defending Ukraine would also be defending Poland - which in this case is indeed true - Poland's prime minister is cautious when it comes to the practical implementation of the idea of shooting down rockets approaching Poland within Ukrainian airspace. This is evident not only in the vague wording of the agreement but also in the comments made by Polish and Western politicians after its signing.
"We've been discussing this idea, born in Poland, for some time," Tusk said at a press conference with Ukrainian President Zelensky. "Poland was the first country to discuss this with Ukraine," he added, but then qualified this with a big 'but': "But we need clear cooperation within the NATO framework, because such actions would require joint NATO responsibility."
Other politicians were similarly cautious. "It's normal for Ukraine to say more than it can achieve, and that could be the case here too," said Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamisz. And he was not wrong: "We support Ukraine in destroying Russian aircraft, but NATO will not commit fully to this task," outgoing NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told the Ukrainian news portal 'Kyiv Independent', effectively ending the discussion. This left Ukraine disappointed, but Polish politics accepted it.
The Polish-Ukrainian security agreement signed by President Zelensky and Prime Minister Tusk gained international attention due to the establishment of a "Ukrainian Legion," but it also contained a clause regarding the potential interception of missiles and aircraft in Ukrainian airspace that violate Polish territory, showing NATO's cautious approach.
Despite the potential benefits for Ukraine, the idea of Poland shooting down rockets approaching Poland within Ukrainian airspace remains a delicate topic, with both Polish and Western politicians emphasizing the need for clear cooperation within the NATO framework due to the significant implications and responsibilities involved.
