Peak attainment of Russian offensive, as per American specialist assessments.
American military analysts predict a decrease in Russia's aggressive actions in Ukraine during the approaching weeks, attributing this to significant casualties. There's still apprehension among the Estonian intelligence service that Pokrovsk might fall this year.
As per the analysis of the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia's offensive in eastern Ukraine is likely to witness a decrease in momentum in the forthcoming weeks or months. This decrease is expected due to the exhaustion of Russian troops allocated for the offensive and their dwindling reserves. The Russian forces are spread thinly, having to engage in various fronts such as Donbass, the halted offensive in Kharkiv, and countering Ukrainian forces in the Russian region of Kursk. The report asserts that the Russian forces lack the personnel and resources to sustain prolonged intense offensive operations.
Russia's advance has been ongoing since October 2023, when Ukraine's summer offensive in the south stagnated. Recent developments have seen Russia making swift progress. However, Ukraine lost its long-held stronghold, Vuhledar, in the Donetsk region. According to ISW experts, this is a tactical victory for Russia but strategically, no significant breakthrough has been achieved. Simultaneously, the Ukrainian defenders are also running low on strength.
On the battlefield today, the Ukrainian General Staff reported 142 attempted Russian assaults, including 30 targeted at the long-contested city of Pokrovsk. Officials claim that Russian troops are currently just seven kilometers away from the city's outskirts. The Estonian intelligence service suspects that the Ukrainian defenders may be compelled to evacuate the strategically essential logistics hub before the year's end.
"Russia has managed to gain between one to two kilometers towards Pokrovsk in the past week, where intense attacks are concentrated," stated Janek Kesselmann, deputy head of the Estonian intelligence service, during an interview with Estonia's public broadcaster ERR. If the intensity of these attacks persists, Ukrainian troops may be forced to retreat and establish stronger defenses from a more strategic position.
The International Crisis Group, a respected global think tank, has expressed concern about the potential fall of Pokrovsk, urging The Commission to consider increasing aid and support to Ukraine's military. In light of the ongoing situation, The Commission is anticipated to discuss these concerns in an upcoming meeting.
