Parliamentary election in France: right-wing nationalists ahead in first round
Celebrate for Marine Le Pen's Right-wing National Rally: In the first round of the French Parliament election, the National Rally receives the most votes. However, President Macron must swallow a heavy defeat. The final decision on seat allocation is still pending.
The right-national National Rally could potentially become the strongest force in the French National Assembly. According to initial calculations, it and its allies were leading in the first round of the advanced Parliament election in France with 34 to 34.2 percent. The centrist camp of President Emmanuel Macron came in third place with 20.3 to 21.5 percent. However, the exact number of seats each block will receive is yet to be determined through run-off elections on July 7.
For France's President Emmanuel Macron, this result is a heavy defeat. He had hoped to build a relative majority of his centrist forces in the lower house through the advanced election. This now seems highly unlikely. Preliminary estimates suggest that Marine Le Pen's right-wing populists and their allies could have as many as 230 to 280 seats in the National Assembly. They might even fall short of an absolute majority of 289 seats.
The left could also gain ground and secure between 125 and 200 seats. Macron's liberals are at risk of shrinking to 60 to 100 seats. Precise statements on seat distribution are currently difficult. Before the second round of voting, parties can still form local alliances that could influence the election outcome. If, as predicted in the prognoses, none of the camps manages to secure an absolute majority, France could face tough coalition negotiations. A coming together of the politically diverse actors is not foreseeable at present. Complicating matters is the fact that the French political culture is more geared towards confrontation than cooperation.
Together, the opposition forces could potentially overthrow the current Macron government. However, without an agreement on cooperation, no other government could find a majority in the Parliament. It's possible that the current government remains in power as a caretaker government or that an expert government is appointed.
In such a scenario, France would be facing political gridlock. A government without a majority could not advance new initiatives. A dissolution of the Parliament by Macron and new elections are not possible until July 2025. For Germany and Europe, this would mean that Paris as an influential actor in Europe and part of the German-French tandem would suddenly become less active. Instead of new initiatives, administration would take center stage in France. The office of President Macron remains untouched by the election, but without a functioning government, he too could not implement his projects.
If the National Rally performs better than predicted in the prognoses and secures an absolute majority, Macron would be effectively forced to appoint a premier from their ranks. In such a scenario, Macron would lose significant power, and the premier would become more influential. Germany and Europe would have to adjust to a fractured country that no longer follows a clear course and becomes less reliable.
## Right Wing Party Gives Little Importance to Cooperation with Berlin
In contrast to Macron, the Right Wing (RN) gives little importance to the long-standing cooperation with Germany. The Euroskeptic Nationalists also aim to significantly reduce the influence of the European Union in France. They could try to hinder several projects in Brussels out of self-interest. Moreover, they are against EU expansion, and they are skeptical towards NATO. As President, Macron has priority in foreign policy. However, if RN leader Jordan Bardella or another right-wing populist becomes Prime Minister, he may not be able to continue this line unhindered.
The Right Wing Party benefited from the momentum of the European election, in which the party was the strongest force in France. For years, Le Pen has been trying to "baptize" the RN and distance it from its extreme past and party founder Jean-Marie Le Pen and his Holocaust denial. With her moderate course, she made the party electable far into the bourgeois mainstream. With Jordan Bardella at the helm, there is now a fresh politician at the forefront who acts more moderately than Le Pen and is not entangled with her family clan. The party could also have profited from the uncertainty in the face of multiple global crises and frustration and disappointment with Macron.
The Left Block Scores Points
State President Macron and his supporters may have been caught off guard by the surprising unity of the left in the election. He had called for cooperation against the extremes on several occasions. However, neither the conservative Republicans nor the Socialists or Greens joined forces with him for the election.
The dissolution of the National Assembly was seen by many in France as irresponsible. The French and Frenchwomen also held Macron responsible for this. The left block scored points with the newly formed alliance, which attracted several people from the left spectrum despite internal disagreements. The fact that the leadership question, that is, who would become Prime Minister if there was a victory, was left open, may also have attracted voters who were critical of a coalition with the populist left-wing leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
The voter turnout was reportedly around 65.8 to 67 percent by the institutions. Macron stated to the Elysée Palace that the high voter turnout showed the will to clarify the political situation. Regarding the RN result, he said it was time to form a broad, clear democratic and republican coalition for the second round.
- Despite Emmanuel Macron's centrist camp placing third in the initial calculations of the French Parliament election, Marine Le Pen's Right-wing National Rally and their allies are predicted to secure a significant number of seats, potentially becoming the strongest force in the National Assembly.
- Contrary to the long-standing cooperation between France and Germany, the Right-wing National Rally, led by Jordan Bardella, gives little importance to this partnership and aims to reduce the influence of the European Union in France.
- The left block, which includes various parties, scored points during the elections due to their newly formed alliance, which attracted voters despite internal disagreements, and the fact that the leadership question was left open, avoiding a coalition with the populist left-wing leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
