Election to the National Assembly - Parliamentary election in France: Left surprisingly ahead
At the French parliamentary elections, initial calculations indicate that the Left Alliance is surprisingly leading. The right-national Rassemblement National could therefore only end up in third place behind the center-stage of State President Emmanuel Macron, according to reports from TF1 and France 2 after the polling stations closed. None of the factions are expected to reach an absolute majority of 289 seats.
The left-wing New Popular Front could reportedly obtain between 172 and 215 of the 577 seats, Macron's forces between 150 and 180, and the Rassemblement National (RN) of Marine Le Pen and her allies between 120 and 152.
This result is a great surprise. A week ago, forecasts predicted that the RN was still just below an absolute majority and thus potentially able to form the next government. The right-wing shift is now less than anticipated.
The outcome remains uncertain for the time being. With the result, various future scenarios emerge. The Left could try to obtain support from the center-forces - either as a minority government with tolerance or in some form of Grand Coalition. Given the opposing political alignments, however, it is not foreseeable whether this would be possible.
It is unclear whether Prime Minister Macron would be politically compelled to appoint a Premier from the left-wing camp in such a scenario. The National Assembly can overthrow the government.
With a Premier from the left-wing camp, Macron would have to share power. The Premier would be more important. What this means for Germany and Europe is unclear. The Left Alliance is divided and holds varying positions on many major political issues.
If none of the factions find a government majority, the current government could remain in power as a caretaker government or an expert government could be appointed. France risks political standstill in such a scenario.
The surprise lead of the Left Alliance in the French parliamentary election could potentially see Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National relegated to the role of opposition in the National Assembly. The extrapolated seat count suggests a narrow margin between Macron's forces and the RN, challenging earlier predictions of an RN absolute majority. This unexpected shift towards the left in France's political landscape could have significant implications for the country and its European partners. Emmanuel Macron's government might face challenges in maintaining power, especially if required to accommodate a left-wing Premier. The choice for France in the following parliamentary sessions is clear: between a fragile coalition, potential political stagnation, or navigating the shifting political sands of Paris.
