Election to the National Assembly - Parliamentary election in France: Left surprisingly ahead
At the French parliamentary elections, initial estimates indicate that the Left Alliance is surprisingly leading. The right-national Rassemblement National could therefore only end up in third place behind the centrist camp of Emmanuel Macron's State Presidency, according to reports from TF1 and France 2 after the polling stations closed. None of the factions are expected to reach an absolute majority of 289 seats.
The New Popular Front could reportedly get between 172 and 215 of the 577 seats, Macron's forces between 150 and 180, and the Rassemblement National (RN) of Marine Le Pen and her allies between 120 and 152.
This result is a great surprise. After the first round of voting a week ago, forecasts showed the RN still just below an absolute majority and potentially able to form the next government. The right-wing shift is now less than anticipated.
The outcome remains uncertain for now. With the result, various future scenarios emerge. The Left could try to gain support from the center-forces - either as a minority government with tolerance or in some form of Grand Coalition. Given the opposing political orientations, however, it is not clear if this would be feasible.
It remains unclear whether Prime Minister Macron would be politically compelled to appoint a Premier from the left-wing camp. The National Assembly can bring down the government.
If a Premier came from the leftist camp, Macron would have to share power. The Premier would be more influential. What this would mean for Germany and Europe is unclear. The Left Alliance is divided and holds various contrasting positions on many major political issues.
If none of the factions find a government majority, the current government could remain in power as a caretaker government or an expert government could be appointed. France risks political standstill in such a scenario.
The Left-wing alliance leading in the French Parliamentary election could potentially shape the political landscape in Paris. The National Assembly, with its ability to bring down the government, might see a Premier from the leftist camp, opening up a shared power structure.
The extrapolated seats for the Left Alliance, ranging from 172 to 215, could give them significant influence in the Parliament, especially if they manage to forge an alliance with the centrist forces.
In the event of a Left-wing Premier, France's relationship with its European neighbor, Germany, could undergo a significant shift, as the new leadership's positions on major political issues will inevitably impact Europe's political dynamics.
The surprise outcome of the parliamentary election has opened up multiple possibilities, including the formation of a minority government with the Left supporting it from the sidelines or a Grand Coalition, but the feasibility of these scenarios remains unclear due to the contrasting positions within the Left Alliance.
