Overview of the Committee on Foreign Affairs and Security's Findings Regarding the Situation in Ukraine.
Ukraine persists in regaining the territories seized by Russia within the past decade. However, challenges such as insufficient personnel, weapons, and backing from the Western alliance have impeded this process. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, of Ukraine, now mentions that Kyiv is preparing significant decisions with Washington and other nations for the contact group meeting in Ramstein on October 12th. The new Ukrainian approach, as reported by the "Financial Times," entails seeking military and diplomatic support from allies to encourage Russia to participate in negotiations. Western diplomats and an increasing number of Ukrainian officials believe that legitimate security guarantees might form the basis for a negotiated resolution, enabling Russia to retain actual control, but not legal control, over the Ukrainian territories it currently occupies.
21:23 Analysts: Russia experiencing three times the equipment loss with Ukraine anticipating tank deliveriesRussia experiences, on average, three times more equipment loss than Ukraine and is continuously dwindling its inheritance of Soviet equipment, while its production, like Ukraine's, only covers a minor fraction of what it's losing, says Jakub Janowski, an analyst based in Prague who works for the Dutch open-source intelligence monitoring unit Oryx. Considering the numbers of soldiers, firepower, and production capacities, Russia currently has the upper hand, cautions Konrad Muzyka, a Polish analyst and director of Rochan Consulting. Janowski speculates that although Russia has more troops and superior firepower, it could still encounter issues if the West intensifies its support. Moreover, some anticipated military equipment deliveries are yet to materialize. According to Oryx, Kyiv is still waiting for promised deliveries of at least 280 tanks, 480 armored fighting vehicles, 1200 troop carriers, and 180 mobile artillery vehicles.
20:34 Ukraine alleges downing of Russian bomber, wreckage photos availableThe Ukrainian armed forces claim to have downed a Russian combat airplane. The bomber was hit on Saturday near the city of Kostiantyniwka in the Donetsk province, as per the local military administration's head. Photos show the charred remains of an aircraft that crashed into a house, igniting it.
20:16 Expert: "Improbable for Ukraine to surpass Russia in manpower"To attain the advantage on the battlefield against Russia, Ukraine must draw on "unconventional" strategies, suggests Dmytro Schmajlo, co-founder and managing director of Kyiv-based think tank "Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center". This includes long-range attacks. By employing artillery and missile strikes, Ukraine could have ruined logistics routes and bases for months during the counteroffensive in autumn 2022, forcing Russian troops out of certain regions in Kherson and Kharkiv. "It's improbable for Ukraine to surpass Russia in terms of manpower," Schmajlo states. Thus, the focus is on disrupting the enemy's logistics and targeting the "center of the military-industrial complex" behind it. Currently, Ukraine uses its own designed long-range drones to assault targets deep inside Russia, more than a thousand kilometers away. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asserts that this illustrates Ukraine's capacity to attack Russian territory; however, Western precision weapons with extended ranges could cause more extensive damage. The Western alliance is hesitant to allow the deployment of Western weapons for this purpose due to fears of intensifying the conflict. According to Schmajlo, their usage might significantly impact the frontlines within a few months.
20:02 Röttgen: "A political solution necessitates a military prerequisite"CDU foreign policy expert Röttgen lessens expectations of a rapid peace. "Diplomacy will only have a chance again when Putin realizes that he can achieve nothing through war," he tells "Der Spiegel": "The West is doing too little to guarantee that this realization occurs," he critiques. "The solution will be political. Yet, it relies on a military prerequisite: It does not consist in the recapture of all Ukrainian territories. Rather, it entails Ukraine gaining military supremacy, causing Putin to understand: There is nothing more to achieve through war." For this, Ukraine requires constant and effective backing.
19:50 Ukraine: Cleared more than half a million bombs and minesUkraine's demining teams have discovered and disarmed more than 533,200 explosive devices since the initiation of the full-scale Russian invasion, as reported by the Emergency Service. They have cleared 148,858 hectares of land of mines and 4,018 aerial bombs. In the past 24 hours alone, the units of the state emergency service responded to 173 calls and neutralized and disposed of 293 explosive devices, including two aerial bombs. The most affected regions were Kharkiv (35,815 times), Kherson (16,560 times), Donetsk (14,826 times), Kyiv (11,393 times), Mykolaiv (9,360 times), Chernihiv (6,948 times), and Sumy (4,425 times). Ukraine happens to be the world's most mined country. Experts from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense have cleared 30,000 square kilometers of mines in the previous two years - an area the size of Belgium or Moldova. Since 2022, approximately 174,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory have been contaminated with explosives.
5:54 Previous NATO Chief Stoltenberg Suggests Potential Ukraine Entry Despite Russian OccupationUntil now, Ukraine's entry into NATO has been proposed for the long term, contingent upon the conclusion of its conflict with Russia. The Ukrainian objective is to gain control of its entire territory prior to membership. Now, Jens Stoltenberg, former NATO Secretary-General, indicates a possible way for Kyiv to enter beforehand. The borders deemed NATO territory need not necessarily correspond to internationally recognized ones. "A boundary should be established that outlines when Article 5 activation occurs, and Ukraine must regain control of all territories up to this boundary." Article 5 is the defense clause, committing other member states to militarily safeguard the member. West Germany recognized East Germany as part of a larger Germany, Stoltenberg noted. "However, NATO only protected West Germany." Similarly, the US provides security guarantees to Japan, not for the contested Kurile Islands. Ukraine submitted its NATO membership request in 2022. Currently, approximately 20% of Ukraine's territory is under Russian control.
5:01 Röttgen Accuses Scholz of "Fear Mongering"CDU foreign policy expert Norbert Röttgen accuses Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz of fueling society's reluctance to continue arming Ukraine due to his alleged fear-mongering. In Röttgen's words, Scholz's repeated rejection of supportive measures as too risky depicts Ukraine's self-defense as the escalation, not the Russian aggression. Rётgen criticizes the issue of rhetoric mirroring a warmonger's stance and its transmission to German society with Scholz's authority. According to Rötgen, a Chancellor should not be driven by fear, but rather by courage, guiding political actions.
4:40 Ukraine Prepares for Potential Attack on Major City SaporischschjaUkrainian military leaders anticipate an imminent Russian offensive aimed at the major city of Saporischschja. By capturing this city, supply lines to eastern defense sectors near Donbass would likely be cut off. Vladislav Voloshin, the military representative for the region, revealed the difficult situation, noting ongoing counter-battery warfare, shelling, and assaults on Ukrainian forces. Counter-battery warfare is artillery fire targeting enemy artillery positions. Additionally, heavy air and missile attacks occur on this front section south of Saporischschja, resulting in turbulent conditions. Although Russian troops occupy the south of the area with the same-named nuclear power plant, they have not seized the city itself.
4:12 Russia Loses Stealth Drone in Ukrainian AirspaceRussian forces are believed to have lost a new stealth drone, the S-70 Okhotnik, in Ukrainian airspace. Pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian Telegram channels report the unmanned combat aircraft crashed in the Donetsk region. According to a Ukrainian Air Force member, the S-70 discharged cluster bombs on Ukrainian positions before being eliminated by friendly Russian fire to protect the technology from falling into Ukrainian hands. The S-70 boasts a weapons-carrying capacity of up to 2000 kg and is expected to enter mass production this year, Russian sources state.
4:00 Nearly Half of Russia's Artillery Shells Sourced from North KoreaAccording to "The Times," half of Russia's artillery shells utilized in Ukraine are imported from North Korea. North Korea is said to provide Moscow with approximately 3 million shells annually, with a significant percentage likely being faulty. Despite the low quality, supplied shells have played a pivotal role in Russia's advance in eastern Ukraine, including the capture of Wuhledar in the Donetsk region. With Russia's dwindling ammunition supplies due to heavy usage in Ukraine, North Korea has emerged as Russia's principal external arms provider. In August, Yonhap News Agency reported that North Korea received technology from Russia in exchange for artillery shells, potentially helping spy satellites, tanks, and aircraft. In June, the two countries signed a military defense agreement.
3:41 Russia Uses Unknown Drones against UkraineBesides Shahed drones, the Russian military has been employing an increasing number of unidentified drone models against Ukraine, according to former Air Force spokesperson Yury Ihnat. Ihnat did not specify the type of unidentified drones. In recent weeks, Russia has escalated its drone attacks against Ukrainian cities and towns, marking the first instance since the full-scale invasion in September and October.
14:51 Kara-Mursa recognized: "True battle between right and wrong" Critic of the Russian Kremlin Vladimir Kara-Mursa and his wife Yevgeniya are being honored with the human rights award from the Bruno Kreisky Foundation in Vienna. The couple advocates for the release of other dissidents held in Russian prisons. For individuals such as Moscow district council member Alexey Gorinov and Siberian journalist Maria Ponomarenko, this is a matter of life and death. Both were given lengthy sentences for speaking out against Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Vladimir Kara-Mursa himself spent a significant time in Russian jail and was only freed in August as part of a prisoner exchange. The Kara-Mursas urge Western politicians to take a more active stand: "If there's an authentic fight between good and evil, dictators are combining forces, and the survival of democracy is being threatened worldwide, you can't stay neutral," explains Yevgeniya Kara-Mursa.
14:23 Worry over long-range missiles? Russia reportedly moving troops and equipment The resistance group Atesh, active in Ukrainian territories under Russian control, reports the relocation of military equipment and personnel to safe locations in Mariupol. "Due to the threat posed by the Ukrainian army's long-range missiles, Russian military commanders are seriously concerned about their troops' safety and are forced to change their positions," the group claims. They aim to track movement routes and share the information with the Ukrainian army.
13:45 "Major efforts" - Ukraine aims to regain control of gas platforms The Ukrainian border guard has released a video of a joint operation with military intelligence to regain control of gas platforms in the Black Sea near Snake Island. "With great effort, we have taken control of some of these strategically significant facilities that serve as our maritime fortresses. If we maintain control, we can control a significant portion of the water area and strengthen our defense," the caption reads.
13:18 Russian prosecutors seek 7 years for 72-year-old American Russian prosecutors are requesting a 7-year jail sentence for a 72-year-old American citizen for his involvement in Ukraine's defense against Russia's war. He will serve his time in a maximum security prison, Russian news agency Interfax reports, citing the prosecution's request. The prosecution considers his age and confession as mitigating factors. The trial is being held behind closed doors. Sources suggest that the man, originally from Michigan, has been residing in Ukraine since 2014. After Russia's attack on the country, he joined a territorial defense battalion in the eastern Ukrainian city of Izium. The city in the Kharkiv region was captured by Russian forces shortly after the conflict began. The American was captured in April 2022 during the fighting.
12:50 Famous Russian propaganda channel on X no longer present One of the most popular Russian propaganda channels, Rybar, is no longer available on the X platform. The channel with over 1.3 million subscribers shares on Telegram that it has been blocked and criticizes Elon Musk. The reasons are unknown. Rybar describes itself as the "most frequently cited Russian Telegram channel in foreign media" and claims to focus on military analysis, information warfare, and visual propaganda.
12:03 Russian combat aircraft reportedly shot down Ukraine may have successfully shot down another Russian combat aircraft. Corresponding videos are currently circulating on social media, also reported by the Eastern European medium Nexta. However, there is no official confirmation yet. It is suspected that the jet was shot down over Kostyantynivka. Ukrainian journalist Illia Ponomarenko suggests that it could have been friendly fire, i.e., struck by the Russians.
11:44 TASS: Russian troops reportedly capture village in eastern Ukraine Based on information from the Russian Defense Ministry, Russian troops have allegedly taken control of the village of Schelanne Druhe in eastern Ukraine, reports Russian state news agency TASS. The village is located in the Donetsk region, which is partially under Russian control. These reports on the fighting cannot be independently verified.
11:32 Post-War Order: Merz Suggests Consultative Group of Germany, France, UK, and Poland The Union's chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz proposes a consultative group consisting of Germany, France, the UK, and Poland to create proposals for a European post-war order following the Ukraine conflict. "Two conditions for cooperation and the development of proposals are essential: proposals for a peace plan must never be presented independently by Germany, but always in close coordination with these European partners," the CDU chairman writes in a circular email. "And in Eastern and Central European states, particularly Ukraine, it must never appear that the political map of Europe is being redrawn over their heads." Alongside the USA, these four countries "both politically and economically and militarily possess sufficient potential and capabilities" to shape Europe's political order after the Ukraine conflict.
11:15 Ukraine Prepares Tough Stance for Ramstein MeetingNext week, the 25th Ramstein meeting will take place, marking the first time it's held at the level of heads of state and government. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy plans to present his "victory plan," which includes "clear, concrete steps towards a fair end to the war." A accompanying video hints at Kyiv's dependance: weapons deliveries from partners to pressure Russia into peace, enforcing "strength." The clip showcases fighter jets, tanks, and artillery repeatedly. "We need sufficient long-range capabilities and a strengthening of our frontline positions," it states. Moreover, aerial images of supposedly destroyed Russian ammunition depots can be seen. The obliteration of these depots is an effective means of hindering Russia's ability to sustain its aggressive war. However, ammunition depots typically lie far behind the front lines and are well-protected, making long-range weapons with high explosive power necessary.
10:42 "Economic Infiltration" - Chinese Companies Expand in RussiaThe former president of the National Bank of Ukraine, Kyrylo Shevchenko, points out on the X platform to numbers indicating that China is expanding its influence on the Russian economy. 34 percent of new companies this year are under Chinese ownership, compared to 13 percent in 2021. "Monthly registrations have increased to 200, with wholesale accounting for 26 percent of turnover," Shevchenko says. "The dominance of companies in key sectors undermines Russia's economic sovereignty," he adds.
10:08 "Unwise Idea" - Criticism Over Peace Engagement CallThe chairman of the European Affairs Committee in the Bundestag, Anton Hofreiter, criticizes the call by the ministers of Saxony and Brandenburg, Michael Kretschmer and Dietmar Woidke, and Thuringia's CDU chief Mario Voigt for more diplomatic engagement in the Ukraine war as "unwise." "It weakens support for Ukraine – at least in public perception. And it encourages Putin to continue the war," Hofreiter told the German editorial network. Critics accuse the politicians of catering to the BSW with the call in order to ultimately form coalitions in the three eastern German states. Kretschmer, Woidke, and Voigt had called for a ceasefire in Ukraine in a FAZ guest article and urged the federal government to bring Russia to the negotiating table. The Russian side has repeatedly presented demands that amount to a dictate for Ukraine, while also regularly insisting on maintaining all war aims.
09:31 Left-wing Figure Regrets Peace Demonstration ParticipationThe Russian attack on Ukraine, with its tens of thousands of deaths, has politically split left-wing circles. Russia's guilt is often downplayed or denied, and the surrender of Ukraine to Russian invaders is sometimes accepted. Left-wing figure Max S. from Saxony-Anhalt expresses regret for participating in the recent "peace demo" in Berlin in a Facebook statement. He criticizes the booing and whistling when SPD politician Ralf Stegner spoke of an attack war. He was also shocked by "warmonger" calls from BSW members. "Ukraine has a right to self-defense," he says. "People who name the aggressor should not be booed in a 'peace movement'." He writes that this was the last such "peace demonstration" he attended.
08:49 Former NATO Chief Stoltenberg Acknowledges Weapons FailureFormer NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg admits that Ukraine was not adequately armed. In an interview with the "Financial Times," he says: "I think we all have to acknowledge that we should have given them more weapons before the invasion. And we should have given them more modern weapons after the invasion. I take my share of the responsibility." Stoltenberg also says there was a large discussion before the Russian attack in February 2022 about whether Kyiv should be armed. Most allies were against it at the time - "they had great fears about the consequences."
08:07 Ukraine Launches Drone Attack on Russian Region VoronezhAccording to the governor of the Voronezh region, Alexander Gusev, there were Ukrainian drone attacks overnight. Several companies that allegedly produce civilian products were the target. There is one injured person and a fire has broken out, Gusev says. Fires are also visible in unverified videos on social networks. Russian authorities usually downplay the effects of Ukrainian attacks.
07:31 Russian Defense Ministry Shares Odd Video of Anti-Drone TrainingThe Russian Defense Ministry has published a video showcasing Russian soldiers training to evade drone attacks. Drones are one of the biggest threats on the battlefield. The best way to counter them is with electronic jammers. If this method is not available or successful, there are few effective ways to defend against them. Shooting down a drone with a regular infantry weapon is extremely difficult, shotguns are the most suitable. In the Russian video, a soldier can be seen briefly evading an attack by rolling over the ground with a log. Another soldier even throws his rifle high into the air and hits a drone with it. Similar scenes have also been seen on several videos from the front, where the drones usually still explode.
06:45 OSINT Analyst Reveals Overwhelming Casualty Numbers of Russian Forces at PokrovskThe brutal war tactics of Russia, characterized by large-scale forced assaults, are evident in the data unveiled by an OSINT specialist from Oryx Project. The data suggests catastrophic losses for the Russian forces in the vicinity of Pokrovsk, the war's current hotspot, that far surpass those of Ukraine. The figures show that within the past year, there have been 539 ruined, deserted, damaged, and surrendered tanks on the Russian side and merely 92 on Ukraine's. In military terms, an attacker usually requires a threefold advantage to successfully challenge defenders. Even in armored combat vehicles like APCs, the disparity is substantial: 1020 to 138. Lee, a former US Marine and now a researcher at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, labels these losses as "extremely high." OSINT experts primarily procure their data from publicly accessible images and videos available online sources, implying that the actual losses may be even more substantial.
06:06 Discussion on Lowering Conscription Age for 18-25 Year Olds: Ambassador Saluschnyj is OpposedValeriy Saluschnyj, the former Ukrainian military leader and now Ambassador to the UK, is of the opinion that Ukraine should not consider lowering the conscription age. In his perspective, the 18-25 age group constitutes Ukraine's future, and the conscription age should only be reduced as an ultimate resort, as reported by the news agency Unian, citing Bukvy. In his own words, "The age group of 18-25 year olds should be protected to the maximum extent possible. Thus, as a military commander, I vehemently protested against mobilizing people below the age of 25, as Ukraine requires a healthy and vibrant culture in the years to come, and other who will safeguard this country," said Saluschnyj. There are some in Ukraine advocating for reducing the conscription age to increase the soldier count.
05:29 Retry: Establishment of Ukrainian Volunteer Legion in Poland: Second AttemptDeputy Defense Minister Paweł Zalewski announced on Friday that the Ukrainian consulate in Lublin began enlisting Ukrainian volunteers residing in Poland for training by the Polish military. Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz mentioned that Poland was prepared to start training in September yet delayed beginnings due to insufficient volunteers: "At that time, sufficient volunteers hadn't come forward. I am informed that Ukraine has recently taken steps to inform, recruit, and promote this process, so we can anticipate results," Kosiniak-Kamysz told regional news outlet Wnp.pl. The legion was introduced in July as a voluntary military unit made up of Ukrainian males living in Poland and instructed by the Polish military.
04:00 Former NATO Chief Stoltenberg Regrets West's Delayed Military Support to UkraineFormer NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg admitted to the "Financial Times" that the postponed delivery of weapons to Ukraine throughout his tenure as the alliance's chief was a major regret for him. He believed that such support could have significantly bolstered Ukraine's defense capabilities. "If there's something I regret the most and now realize more clearly, it's that we should have provided Ukraine with more military assistance much earlier. Delaying it significantly weakened Ukraine," Stoltenberg said. He added, "The deployment of lethal weapons was a major topic of debate. Most allies were against it prior to the invasion... they had significant concerns regarding the consequences. I'm proud of what we've accomplished, but it would have been greatly advantageous if we had started earlier, possibly preventing the invasion or at least making it considerably more challenging for them to do as they did."
02:01 Russian Elite Units Suffer Severe Casualties in Wuhledar BattleAccording to BBC News Russia, as reported on Friday, Russian elite troops suffered losses four times higher in the year-long battle near Wuhledar in the Donetsk region than they had in the ten-year Second Chechen War. The Kyiv forces declared their withdrawal from the strategically significant Wuhledar settlement in the Donetsk region on Wednesday, after Russian troops breached the city's perimeters and entered Wuhledar itself. Elite units 155 and 40, also known as "Black Berets," participated in the city's assault. BBC reported that 211 marines from the 155th Brigade were killed during the Battle of Wuhledar, with 42 still missing. This is far more than the unit's losses in the Chechen War's decade-long span, as stated by BBC journalists. They documented the deaths of 72 soldiers from the 40th Brigade as well.
23:55 Belarusian Opposition Figures Sentenced for Sabotage Attack: Prison Terms between 2 to 25 YearsA court in Belarus has sentenced twelve opposition activists to prison terms ranging from 2 to 25 years for allegedly participating in a sabotage attack on a Russian military aircraft in February 2023. The court in Minsk found the twelve defendants guilty of the "terrorist act" and passed the sentences, as stated by the prosecution. Five of the convicted remain in Belarus, while the remaining defendants were tried in absentia, including the alleged mastermind of the attack, Nikolai Swets, who was given a 25-year prison sentence after leaving Belarus in the summer as part of a prisoner exchange with Ukraine. In February 2023, pro-Ukrainian activists claimed to have destroyed a Russian military aircraft at the Matschulischtschi airport near Minsk. It was an A-50 reconnaissance aircraft.
22:19 Update: Russia intends to enlist 225,000 temporary soldiers within the next 3 yearsPer the Russian Defense Ministry's statements, they aim to enlist a minimum of 225,000 temporary soldiers throughout the subsequent 3 years. This information was divulged by the Russian independent online outlet "Crucial News". As per the proposed budget for 2025-2027, approximately 335 million US dollars are set aside annually for bonuses to new contract signers.
21:44 Romania: Detected Russian drone on NATO territoryRomanian authorities, as a NATO member, have identified a Russian unmanned aerial vehicle on their domain. The Ministry of Defense announced on X that debris indicative of a Russian drone was found near the Litcov Canal, close to the Ukraine border. The remnants are under examination. A week prior, there was an event concerning a Russian drone. The drone potentially ventured into Romanian airspace, according to the ministry, who elucidated that the drone was engaged in an assault on the southern Ukrainian city of Ismajil. This city is situated on the Danube, with Romania situated on the opposite side of the river.
21:10 Johnson: If Trump had been president, Putin wouldn't have instigated the warAccording to former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the absence of Russia's invasion of Ukraine during Trump's tenure as US President is unlikely to be a coincidence. As Johnson explains to the "Telegraph", "Trump's innate unpredictability" makes it questionable that Russia would have invaded Ukraine had he been in office. Johnson posits that Moscow viewed Trump's unpredictability as a potential risk, leading to apprehension about initiating a conflict with a sovereign nation. According to the "Telegraph", Johnson is of the opinion that Trump's unpredictability would have sufficed to deter Russian President Vladimir Putin from engaging in war with a nation-state.
20:03 Mayor: Russians 7 km from PokrovskRussian forces seem to be closing in on Pokrovsk, now less than 7 km from the city limits, according to Mayor Serhii Dobriak on Ukrainian TV. Earlier, the distance was reported as under 10 km. The mayor reported bombings, with the city center undergoing 2 separate attacks alone the previous day. Currently, over 80% of the city's critical infrastructure is either harmed or destroyed. "The adversary deprives us of power, water, and gas. This is a prelude to winter," he remarkedly commented. Despite evacuation orders, over 13,000 residents remain in Pokrovsk, including around 100 children. Pokrovsk's pre-conflict population was approximated to be 60,000.
Review all previous events here.
The attack on Ukraine by Russia continues to be a significant challenge, hindering Ukraine's efforts to regain territories seized over the past decade. Despite the military aid provided by Western allies, the country faces insufficient personnel, weapons, and backing, making the process difficult.
Meanwhile, analysts suggest that although Russia has more troops and superior firepower, it could still encounter issues if the West intensifies its support to Ukraine. These anticipated military equipment deliveries, such as tanks and armored fighting vehicles, could significantly impact the frontlines and force Russia to reconsider its position.
