Orbán's blackmail has a chance of success

Orbán's blackmail has a chance of success

The judiciary has lost its independence, corruption is gaining momentum. The EU Commission has therefore frozen many billions in subsidies for Hungary. However, it is now recommending the release of 900 million euros to Budapest. And Orbán can hope for even more money.

Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is threatening the European Union with two vetoes. Firstly, he wants to vote against the opening of EU accession negotiations with Ukraine at the summit of heads of state and government in mid-December. Secondly, he is blocking the release of a 50 billion euro aid package for Kiev, for which the Council must also give the green light. Nevertheless, the EU Commission recently recommended that the member states release 900 million euros in frozen funding for Hungary from the RePowerEU coronavirus recovery program. But that's not all.

In recent weeks, the Commission and Budapest have held intensive discussions on whether Hungary should be granted access to a total of 13 billion euros in funding from the EU Cohesion Fund. EU diplomats sense a calculation behind Orbán's blockade stance towards Ukraine to free up the funds withheld by the Commission.

Due to rampant corruption and Orbán's campaign against the rule of law in Hungary, the EU has frozen several subsidies. It withheld corona aid amounting to 28 billion euros from Budapest and 22 billion euros from the Cohesion Fund. Funds from the EU budget were also cut in December last year, a further 6.3 billion.

Exchange of letters between the Commission and the Hungarian government

The Commission only wants to release the majority of the funds again if Hungary can prove that it is fighting corruption and restoring the rule of law through reforms . The situation is different with the 900 million from the RePowerEU program. This is a type of pre-financing that is not linked to any conditions. A Commission spokesperson emphasized that the positive decision on Hungary's plans was not a concession to Orbán. In assessing the Hungarian plans, the rules had been adhered to. Unlike other payments, the advance payments from the program could not be linked to reforms.

However, a clear prerequisite for the release of 13 billion euros from the Cohesion Fund is that Hungary re-establishes an independent judiciary. Orbán is of the opinion that his country has fulfilled all the conditions. He therefore submitted an application for payment in July. Since then, there has been a lively exchange of letters between the Commission and Budapest. The Commission has already sent a list of questions to Hungary to inquire about the rule of law there. Hungary has yet to respond. Officially, the decision on the payment of the funds is still pending.

Orbán probably did not choose the time to send the application to the Commission by chance. He already knew in the summer that important decisions regarding Ukraine were due in the fall, which he could use to exert pressure on the EU. Officially, he is constantly finding new justifications for his blockade stance.

Orbán invokes the protection of minorities in Ukraine

He initially declared that the Hungarian minority in the western Ukrainian region of Transcarpathia was being oppressed, knowing full well that the protection of minorities is an important condition for EU accession. Among other things, he criticizes the Ukrainian education law, which was passed in 2017. Until then, minorities were able to attend school in their own language until they graduated from high school. In the meantime, lessons in Ukrainian are compulsory from the fifth grade onwards. The general efforts to strengthen the Ukrainian language as the national language are a thorn in Orbán's side.

Green MEP Viola Cramon-Taubadel, who has visited the region several times, considers Orbán's argument to be window dressing. "Ukraine has one of the most progressive legal regulations in the region when it comes to national minorities," says Cramon-Taubadel in an interview with ntv.de. Up to 150,000 Hungarians in Ukraine have access to the Hungarian language at school and in other educational institutions. Hungarian is widely spoken in the region, as she was able to see for herself in the region's cities. This was also confirmed to her by international and local organizations. "Of course, there is still room for improvement," admits Cramon-Taubadel. Nevertheless, it is clear to her that "Orbán does not care about the Hungarian minorities in Ukraine, he is only using them as a means of exerting pressure on the EU."

But Orbán is not only referring to the protection of minorities. In a letter to EU Council President Charles Michel, which was also distributed to the member states a few days ago, Orbán writes that as long as no consensus has been reached on the strategy for dealing with Ukraine, no decisions can be made at the level of the heads of state and government on additional financial support, security guarantees or the EU enlargement process. Orbán calls on his EU counterparts to ask themselves whether the strategic EU goal of a victory in Ukraine in conjunction with political changes in Russia can still be considered realistic. He also asks what kind of security architecture is conceivable in Europe after the war and how Ukraine's desire to join the EU can be reconciled with political and economic realities.

"Release of funds can only be described as fatal"

Some EU diplomats conceded that Orbán asked the right and important questions in the letter. At the same time, however, his recent meeting with Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin had further fueled suspicions that he was acting under the influence of Russia and trying to force the release of frozen EU funds. Monika Hohlmeier, Chair of the European Parliament's Committee on Budgetary Control, is also convinced of this. "All talks about frozen funds for Hungary must be seen in the light of the fact that the Orbán government is linking the release of funds to Hungary's agreement on an unrelated issue at EU level. In the meantime, one can already speak of a practiced tactic," the CSU politician tells ntv.de. She calls on the member states to defend the foundations of the EU, including against Orbán. The fact that autocratic methods are tolerated is already creating imitation effects that are damaging the EU's strength both internally and externally.

Hohlmeier considers the Commission's recommendation to pay Hungary 900 million from the RePowerEU program to be the wrong signal. "Any release of funds without lasting improvements in the independence of the judiciary, rule of law standards and compliance with basic internal market rules in Hungary can only be described as fatal," she says. Further billions from the Cohesion Fund should not be released under any circumstances, as Hungary has done nothing to restore the rule of law.

In addition, Orbán is increasingly stirring up sentiment against Brussels in his own country. His government has launched a populist survey to "protect" Hungary against EU policy. The results are not legally binding. However, Orbán hopes that the answers of the Hungarians surveyed will support his policies.

"Orbán is dancing around on our noses"

In addition to migration policy, the new consultation also deals with the war in neighboring Ukraine. Among other things, the EU line is that "Brussels wants to give Ukraine more weapons and money" or "Brussels wants Ukraine to join the European Union". The government also had posters put up all over Hungary denigrating EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. She is pictured there together with Alexander Soros. Soros is the son of Hungarian-born stock market billionaire George Soros, who Orbán likes to portray as an enemy of the Hungarian nation with conspiracy theory rhetoric. "Let's not dance to the tune of Brussels," the posters read.

In view of such actions, Katarina Barley, Vice-President of the European Parliament, expects the EU Commission to remain tough on Orbán. "Orbán is dancing around on our noses: at home in Hungary, he is openly attacking Ursula von der Leyen and the EU as a whole, taking advantage of German companies, creating a mood against Ukraine and in favor of Russia," the SPD politician tells ntv.de. At the same time, he is trying to free up funds in Brussels. This should not be rewarded. "Especially in view of the shift to the right that we are unfortunately experiencing in the EU, a clear edge is more important than ever," said Barley.

1. EU politicians are closely monitoring Viktor Orbán's actions due to concerns over corruption and the rule of law in Hungary, leading to the freezing of several subsidies worth billions of euros.
2. Hungary is seeking to unlock frozen EU funding, with Orbán threatening to veto the EU's approval of aid for Ukraine and the release of a 50 billion euro aid package for Kiev, if his demands are not met.
3. Orbán is using the Ukraine conflict and the protection of Hungarian minorities in Ukraine as arguments to exert pressure on the EU, as he feels this could aid in unlocking EU funds.
4. Orbán accused Ukraine of oppressing the Hungarian minority in the western region of Transcarpathia, citing the Ukrainian education law as an issue, but this was criticized as window dressing by Green MEP Viola Cramon-Taubadel.
5. EU diplomats expressed concerns that Orbán's stance might be influenced by Russia, as he recently met with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
6. Katarina Barley, Vice-President of the European Parliament, called on the EU Commission to remain tough on Orbán, as he is openly attacking the EU, taking advantage of German companies, and creating a pro-Russia sentiment in Hungary while seeking to unlock EU funds.

Source: www.ntv.de