Rassemblement National - "On the threshold of power": France's right-wing populists on the brink of a landslide victory
Three weeks after the European election, France's Right-wing populists once again achieved a clear victory. "The extreme Right is at the threshold of power," conceded Prime Minister Gabriel Attal in Paris on Sunday evening. According to calculations, the Rassemblement National (RN) party is expected to receive around 33 percent in the first round of the parliamentary election. Some forecasts suggest that the RN could obtain a relative or absolute majority on July 7. However, there are still many variables.
Macron calls for alliance against Right
The number of seats the blocks will receive in the National Assembly will only be decided in the upcoming Sunday's runoff elections. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced the withdrawal of approximately 60 candidates in the second round to prevent the success of right-wing populist candidates. The RN could receive "no single vote" in the second round, he said.
French President Emmanuel Macron called for a "broad, democratic and republican alliance" in response to the success of the Right-wing populists. The high voter turnout testified to the "will to clarify the political situation," Macron emphasized. If the RN actually obtains the absolute majority, Macron would be factually compelled to appoint a premier from the ranks of the Right-wing Nationalists. The National Assembly can topple the government. While the supporters of the RN hope for a power shift, many French fear a takeover by the Right-wing Nationalists. Thousands of people demonstrated in Paris and several other cities against the extreme Right on Sunday evening.
The government camp is lagging behind with approximately 21 percent. The left-wing populist politician Jean-Luc Mélenchon called the result a "heavy and indisputable defeat for Macron." His party, La France Insoumise (LFI), will also withdraw some candidates to prevent the success of RN candidates.
The left-green electoral alliance New Popular Front is expected to receive around 28 percent. "We have seven days to save France from a disaster," declared the socialist politician Raphaël Glucksmann. The Republicans – without their expelled party chief Eric Ciotti – are at ten percent. The voter turnout was significantly higher than in 2022 at 65 percent or more.
Marine Le Pen seeks absolute majority
The former RN party chief, Marine Le Pen, urged her supporters to give her party an "absolute majority" in the next round. Macron's camp is "practically wiped out," Le Pen, who was elected in her constituency in the north in the first round, declared.
Party leader Jordan Bardella sees himself as a future "Prime Minister for all French," should his party obtain the absolute majority. He would be "loyal to the constitution but unyielding," the 28-year-old announced.
The RN entered the race with a strict European and anti-immigrant program. The party also promised substantial electoral gifts, some of which it has already scaled back.
Concretely, the party wants to reduce France's EU contribution, introduce a cap on immigration, restrict the freedom of movement of non-EU nationals, and impose professional bans on French citizens with dual citizenship. As one of the first measures, the value-added tax on gas and fuel should be reduced. The abolition of the pension reform is expected to come later.
## France on the Brink of Political Crisis
France experts warned of a political prolonged crisis in light of the election results. "The risk concretizes that France will find itself in a situation without a parliamentary majority once again," said Jacob Ross from the German Society for Foreign Policy (DGAP). Political instability will increase, he added.
The distribution of the 577 seats in the National Assembly will only become clear after the second round of voting. Thirty-nine RN candidates were elected in the first round, and thirty-two representatives from the New Popular Front were able to secure their places directly, according to official figures from the Interior Ministry, which were provided to the news agency AFP. To be elected in the first round, candidates do not only need an absolute majority of votes but also need to secure a quarter of the registered voters' votes.
If the RN were to receive an absolute majority, France would experience its fourth cohabitation, in which the President and Prime Minister belong to different parties. However, the ideological differences would be greater than ever before. Instead of new initiatives, France would focus on administration.
Germany and Europe would have to adapt to the fact that the divided country would no longer pursue a clear course and would become less reliable. As President, Macron takes priority in foreign policy. However, if the 28-year-old Bardella were to become Prime Minister, he would likely not be able to continue his line unhindered. In contrast to Macron, the RN gives little importance to close cooperation with Germany. The party also aims to reduce the influence of the European Union in France.
- Despite Prime Minister Gabriel Attal's concedion of a potential victory for the Rassemblement National (RN) in the first round of the parliamentary election, some forecasts suggest that the RN could obtain a relative or absolute majority on July 7, potentially forcing Emmanuel Macron to appoint a premier from the Right-wing Nationalists if they secure the absolute majority.
- Marine Le Pen, the former RN party chief, called on her supporters to give her party an "absolute majority" in the next round, as the RN entered the race with a strict European and anti-immigrant program, promising substantial electoral gifts and seeking to reduce France's EU contribution, introduce a cap on immigration, and restrict the freedom of movement of non-EU nationals.
- In response to the success of the Right-wing populists, Emmanuel Macron called for a "broad, democratic and republican alliance" to prevent a takeover by the RN, with the left-green electoral alliance New Popular Front expecting to receive around 28 percent and Jean-Luc Mélenchon acknowledging a "heavy and indisputable defeat for Macron."
- Thousands of people demonstrated in Paris and several other cities against the extreme Right on Sunday evening, as Germany and Europe would have to adapt to a divided France if the RN were to receive an absolute majority and France would experience its fourth cohabitation, with increased political instability and potentially altered foreign policy priorities.
