Numerous youths backed the AfD party in the elections.
At the recent European election, young voters predominantly penalized the Green party and instead endorsed the AfD. Is this a sign of a right-wing shift among the youth, or is the climate issue no longer a priority?
Chancellor Olaf Scholz voiced his thoughts on the German European election outcomes earlier this week, stating, "The election result was dismal for all three ruling parties. We can't just ignore it now." The question remains whether Scholz was caught off guard and thus hesitated to comment on the election night results. However, it's crystal clear that the traffic light coalition was met with punishment - particularly by the young demographic.
16-24-year-olds deviated from their voting patterns in the 2019 European election. The AfD witnessed an 11% surge in support, surpassing other age groups. The Union earned 17%, while the Greens lost a staggering 23% amongst youth - a decline seen in no other demographic.
"Lack of Faith in a Brighter Tomorrow"
Wendelin Haag, Chairman of the German Federal Youth Council, urges caution when interpreting the election results. "We should not overstate the fact that merely a small fraction of young people voted for a non-democratic party. We must also acknowledge that 83% of young voters – first-time voters – cast their ballots for democratic parties." Haag expressed these sentiments in the ntv podcast "Wieder was gelernt."
Yet, the small fraction still causes concern for Thomas König, a political scientist from the University of Mannheim. In a pre-election study, he predicted that young people tend to back populist parties like the AfD or Sahra Wagenknecht's Left Party. The reason for this trend, König explains in the podcast, revolves around young voters' flexibility in party choices and a certain disillusionment with the existing situation. Young people no longer believe in the prospect of a better future than their parents'.
Social media played a crucial role, as König points out, as they are "heavily shaped by right-wing populist or populist parties as a whole. They exert a greater influence through the emotional tone with which they confront others." This generates attention and engagement on platforms like TikTok.
AfD Escapes Scandals Unscathed
The AfD has managed to resonate with young people effectively, unlike any other party. This reality alarms many in Germany. However, even amidst the various scandals surrounding the two AfD candidates Maximilian Krah and Peter Bystron, the party remained undeterred.
Haag stresses the importance of recognizing young people's right to vote as they choose: "It's not their responsibility to vote better than others. Young people, like every other age group, have the freedom to choose their candidate." Moreover, young people are navigating challenging circumstances, including uncertainty and multiple crises, influencing their decisions.
Additionally, Haag expressed concern about the way the media and public debate have been influenced by the AfD: "Unfortunately, the AfD is more effective in disseminating its narratives, particularly on social media."
Young Voters Switch to Volt
At the 2021 Bundestag election, the Greens still led among young voters with 23%. The FDP followed closely with 21%. However, at the European election, only 11% of 16-24-year-olds supported the party.
Although the Green party's main agenda, climate change, holds little importance to young people: According to this year's Sinus Youth Study and the "Future? Youth ask!" – 2023 study from the Federal Environment Agency, environmental and climate protection remains a significant concern for almost 80% of young people. However, politics fails to address these issues adequately, both studies suggest.
The Greens' inability to win young voters has been attributed to a shift in support towards the pro-European Volt Party by many within the Federal Youth Council. Haag posits in the "Wieder was gelernt" Podcast that this is not a rejection of environmental issues that were important to young people five years ago, but a shift from the ruling party (Greens) to an opposition party (Volt).
Smaller Parties Win Support from Young Voters
"Smaller parties were highly successful in garnering young voters' support," asserts Haag. Nearly a third, 28%, of their votes came from smaller and micro-parties, including Volt. Volt secured 7% of the votes from 16-24-year-olds, amounting to a notable share of their total 2.6% overall votes. This percentage was not surpassed in any other age group.
Political analyst König underscores the unexpected success of Volt in the European election as the most significant outcome. "Many, particularly from the traffic light coalition, but also the CDU and CSU, failed in their 'Bundestag election campaign.' They may have underestimated young people's desire for more information on European matters."
A political expert, Uwe Jun from the University of Trier, suggests that the rising support for opposition parties like CDU and AfD among younger generations may be a sign of dissatisfaction with current politics, as they feel underrepresented. This contrasts with the preferences of older generations and the traffic light coalition, the current political alignment.
