"Numerous French citizens perceive Macron as pompous and didactic."
The right-wing party RN, led by Marine Le Pen, has surged in popularity, with over a third of French voters deciding to support them. On the other hand, President Emmanuel Macron's liberal coalition is struggling to maintain favor with the electorate. France expert Ronja Kempin from the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik predicts that Macron's arrogance will be met with backlash in the upcoming elections.
ntv.de: The RN has weakened Macron's liberal bloc in the European election, and it could emerge as the most powerful force in the upcoming French election. What is driving the popularity of right-wing populists among the French?
Ronja Kempin: Originally founded in the 70s as a post-fascist and anti-Semitic party, the RN languished in the polls between 8-10% for many years, led by Marine Le Pen's father, Jean-Marie Le Pen. In 2011, Marine took over and set a new course, focusing on becoming President instead of remaining in fundamental opposition. This led to a rebranding and restructuring, including a purge of those expressing anti-Semitic views. The culmination of this was the exclusion of her own father in 2015. Today, the RN advocates for economic and social issues from a nationalist perspective.
This approach shares similarities with the demands of the Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW): higher social benefits for natives, but an end to migration.
The party now aims to have as few foreigners as possible in the country, while increasing the purchasing power of the population. They cater to the fears of those who worry about running out of money each month. Through this transformation, the party has become more accessible and garnered support from various age groups and social classes, averaging around 30%.
The Macron government coalition trails in polls, with the left coalition ranking second, and the RN ranked first. What causes dissatisfaction among the French towards Macron?
Many Germans view Macron as modern, pro-European, and exemplary. However, in France, he is seen as arrogant and condescending. He dismisses those who demonstrate as idiots. Macron has weakened the political center in France with his policies. There is only him as the political center, with extremes on both the left and right. It's not that all those who vote for the RN hold extremist views. The party has simply entered the political mainstream due to its constructive behavior in the National Assembly and repeated offers of compromise.
Macron referred to himself as the "Jupiter President," modeling himself after exemplary figures who govern like almost monarchical leaders. Does this self-image turn off voters?
His actions mirror his self-staging. He relaxed the termination right, reduced unemployment benefits, pushed through pension reform, and raised the retirement age, despite widespread protests and even country-wide paralysis. He failed to explain his policies to the population. Instead, he told them to stop protesting because they don't understand what he's doing. He rarely consulted anyone. Macron has been successful in reducing unemployment, but the French feel dominated by him.
Le Pen transferred leadership of the RN to the 28-year-old Jordan Bardella in 2022. He aims to secure the position of Prime Minister if the party wins an absolute majority. Does Bardella contribute to the popularity of the RN?
Giving the leadership to Bardella was a smart move by Le Pen. He was romantically linked to Le Pen's niece, but he is not the first party leader from within the family clan. Furthermore, Bardella grew up in a socially disadvantaged suburb of Paris and has Italian-Algerian roots. His authenticity resonates when he says, "Anyone who assimilates in France can achieve anything." He is extremely popular among young people due to his TikTok presence and has also won over bourgeois voter groups for the RN with his strong demeanor. While Marine Le Pen remains suspect to the French due to her family history, Bardella may prove to be more relatable.
If Bardella becomes Prime Minister following a victory by the RN, Macron would need to collaborate with him. Bardella would then be responsible for domestic policy, while Macron would handle foreign and defense policy. What challenges can we expect then?
France's national debt is already sky-high, and its creditworthiness has taken a hit. The financial market is expected to show signs of anxiety with Prime Minister Bardella in the mix. Macron might come up with smart solutions on the international stage, yet he'll bear the brunt for his homeland's economic struggles. This leaves him vulnerable. In EU parliament meetings, it's possible that RN ministers could take a seat. Bardella might also reach out to partners like Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. The question then arises, will Meloni team up with Bardella or stick with Macron?
Domestically, Macron is a leader with little sway over political actions. This lack of power will become apparent in foreign affairs. Will France carry on backing Ukraine as it has been? The answer might be a firm no if Bardella ascends to the PM role.
(Interview with Lea Verstl and Ronja Kempin)
