Nuclear weapon stockpiles show an upward trend globally.
Since the end of the Cold War, the significance of nuclear weapons in global politics has diminished, but alas, according to the Peace Research Institute Sipri. The nine nations armed with nukes have been upgrading their arsenals, with one nation doing so at an unprecedented pace.
These nuclear-equipped powers are increasingly relying on nuclear deterrence in the face of numerous global conflicts. The count of operational nuclear warheads is climbing, as per the annual report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri). Although deactivated warheads are being dismantled, and the global total number of nuclear weapons has lowered for decades, the number of operational nuclear warheads is on a yearly upswing.
Furthermore, the number of nuclear warheads under development has increased, as nations leaned more on nuclear deterrence, Sipri reports. From the estimated global stockpile of roughly 12,121 nuclear warheads in January 2024, about 9585 were stored in military arsenals for possible use. Over 3900 of these warheads were attached to missiles and aircraft - a boost of 60 from January 2023. The remainder was stored in central depositories.
As per the Institute's data, nine nations possess nuclear weapons. The United States and Russia top the list, holding approximately 90% of all nuclear warheads. Britain comes in third place, followed by France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel. Germany does not hold these weapons.
"China is swiftly expanding its nuclear arsenal,"
In addition to their military arsenals, Russia and the United States each hold over 1200 nuclear warheads that have been removed from active service and are being dismantled gradually. "While the total number of nuclear warheads worldwide continues to decline as Cold War-era weapons are gradually dismantled, the number of operational nuclear warheads unfortunately increases every year," said Sipri Director Dan Smith in the report. This trend is "extremely worrying.”
Approximately 2100 of the deployed warheads were being kept on high alert on ballistic missiles, it was noted. Almost all these warheads belonged to Russia or the United States. For the first time, China was reportedly keeping some warheads on high alert. China's total nuclear arsenal grew from 410 nuclear warheads counted in January 2023 to 500 in January 2024. "China is growing its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country,” said Sipri expert Hans Kristensen. However, all nuclear-armed states have plans to boost their stocks.
Yet, none of the nuclear-armed states are eager to confront the reality. The transparency regarding the nuclear forces of leading countries has decreased since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, as per Sipri experts. Transparency has also dwindled in other countries.
Advances in Nuclear Diplomacy
I. Successful Advocacy for Agreements for Shared Use of Nuclear Weapons
However, progress has been made in the debate regarding agreements for the joint use of atomic weapons. "Since the end of the Cold War, atomic weapons have not held such a dominant position in international relations," stated Wilfred Wan, head of the Sipri-Programme for Disarmament, Behavior and Conventional Arms.
II. Setbacks for Nuclear Diplomacy
Nuclear diplomacy has encountered several hurdles since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Vladimir Putin, the Kremlin leader, deactivated the New Start Treaty - the last major nuclear disarmament treaty with the USA - in February 2023. This treaty limits the nuclear arsenals of both countries and supervises inspections. Talks about a successor agreement for the treaty ending in 2026 were halted. In November 2023, Russia withdrew its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) and justified this by an "imbalance” against the USA, which had not ratified the treaty since its signing in 1996. Most recently, Russia announced tactical nuclear weapons exercises near the Ukrainian border in May 2024.
