Nine reasons why Ukraine is now in grave danger

Lack of weapons, lack of success, hardly any protection from the cold and dwindling US aid: There are a whole host of reasons why this winter is becoming a threat to the Ukrainians. If the West wants to turn the tide, it must switch to turbo.

1. the troops find too little protection from the winter

In the offensive in the east of the country, the Ukrainian troops have not managed to completely break through the Russian defenses, but have remained behind the first line. If they had reached the Russian-occupied village of Tokmak and liberated it, they could have set up their winter quarters there, with protection against the cold. However, under constant Russian artillery and drone fire, the Ukrainians were unable to advance any further. Now they have to cope with the weather in the open and try to make their camp as winter-proof as possible. "The Russian soldiers on the other side have the advantage that they have already been setting up their defensive positions for months," says Colonel Markus Reisner ntv.de. This means they are better protected against snow and cold.

2. not only the frontline fighters, everyone is exhausted

This is the second winter on the front line for the Ukrainian troops, and in contrast to the situation a year ago, they lack the success of a previous offensive to encourage them. In the fall of 2022, the Ukrainians had recaptured a surprising amount of territory near Kherson and Kharkiv and were accordingly confident going into the hardships of winter. Military expert Nico Lange has observed "general exhaustion" among the frontline soldiers in Ukraine, but not only there. The "permanent physical and psychological strain" can be felt right up to the highest positions in the general staff or the government. Everyone is "on the edge of their physical capabilities and therefore quickly mentally irritated", Lange describes in the NDR podcast "Armed Forces and Strategies". It is currently difficult to be confident, to radiate confidence in Ukraine.

3. there is a lack of ammunition

In March 2023, the EU seemed to have nailed its colours to the mast: one million rounds within a year - that was the promise to the fighting Ukrainians. 155 millimetre artillery ammunition, suitable for the NATO weapons that Western supporting countries had supplied to Kiev and whose ammunition Ukraine cannot produce itself. Nine months later, the results are devastating and are therefore being concealed as much as possible in Brussels: According to the "Süddeutsche Zeitung", the number of 155 millimeter shells supplied so far from the countries' own stocks is said to be just 100,000.

The number ordered so far is also far too low and the arms industry lacks the capacity to process them. Their production volumes are largely fully utilized with existing orders from the USA, and the supplier companies of the large corporations cannot increase their production on demand. Speaking of suppliers: quite a few components come from China, which is allied with Russia.

With a consumption of at least 150,000 rounds of artillery ammunition per month, sometimes twice as much in fiercer battles, it is clear what the EU's failure means for the fighting power of Kiev's troops: the Ukrainians will have nowhere near the amount of ammunition they need this winter.

4. lack of weapons

What applies to ammunition is also a central problem for the supply of weapons: the stocks of European countries are alarmingly patchy. At best, the Baltic states and Scandinavians were still prepared for a long, intensive war in Europe; for others, such as Germany, military shortages were the norm. Some artillery systems, battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles were handed over to Ukraine - often only after a tough struggle.

But the months that passed in the spring, when the Ukrainians were still waiting for Western weapons, were used by the Russian troops to dig in along the front line and build such defensive positions that they were almost impossible to break through. Ukraine had to fight its offensive in the summer without sufficient fighter jets, minesweepers or cruise missiles. There is now an urgent need to re-equip for a spring offensive, but many EU countries are already running low.

5 Too little, too late, too defensive

Germany refuses to supply Kiev with the powerful Taurus cruise missile and instead relies on the delivery of anti-aircraft weapons. These are good for protecting infrastructure and the population. But you can't win a war with them. Germany's behavior represents the attitude of the Western support group as a whole: they do not want to see Ukraine go under, but they are not giving it what it needs to win. As a result, Ukraine is fuming because it will never be able to penetrate the Russian lines with mass and really good equipment. If it tries anyway, it will cost many soldiers' lives and equipment. If the West does not switch to turbo now and prepare comprehensive support for a spring offensive, there will be no breakthrough in 2024 and therefore no turning point in the war.

6 The war is losing momentum, a long positional war is looming

Hardly anyone in the West had thought it possible that the Ukrainian offensive could fail to achieve its most important goal because the Ukrainians' demands had not been taken seriously. Of the quantities of weapons that the commander of the armed forces, General Valery Salushnyi, had declared to be necessary for the offensive, the West only supplied a good half and thought to itself: "It will work out. But it went wrong.

To be successful, it would have been necessary to advance as far as the Sea of Azov and thus drive a wedge into the land bridge conquered by Russia as far as the coast. This would have cut off important supply routes to and from the Crimean peninsula. However, this did not succeed. The Russians had built up their positions too well, while Ukraine waited for Western weapons in the spring.

Salushnyj is the first high-ranking Ukrainian military officer to publicly state that the most important objective of the offensive was not achieved. He described this as an increasing "stalemate" in the British "Economist". This is dangerous, as Russia is not fighting alone, but has China, North Korea and Iran behind it.

The stalemate is also caused by the mass deployment of reconnaissance drones on both sides. Neither of the warring parties can make a move without being spotted by the enemy. A surprise attack is therefore not possible. But Ukraine would need one in order to regain the upper hand.

7 Russia has caught up technologically

In the early days of the war, the Russian military was repeatedly described as outdated in terms of warfare and equipment. However, the Russians have used the past 18 months to catch up, particularly in the use of drones and electronic warfare. "The gap that initially existed between them and the Ukrainians, who are weaker in terms of numbers but technically superior, is closing more and more," says security expert Gustav Gressel from the European Council on Foreign Relations in an interview with ntv.de. For example, the Russians can now jam the GPS guidance of Western cruise missiles so effectively that the majority of high-quality missiles miss their target.

A year ago, it would have been possible to make a difference in the war by supplying Kiev's troops with masses of combat and infantry fighting vehicles. "Now that alone is no longer enough," says Gressel. "Now we have to rethink the battle of linked weapons with a very close integration of electronic warfare and drones." There are no signs that this is already happening in the West. "The weapons that decide the war," says Gressel, "must be made by Ukraine itself."

8 The West is deluding itself

While military expert Nico Lange is experiencing a great deal of anger towards Russian President Vladimir Putin and "a great determination to keep fighting" in Ukraine, the supportive West seems to be flagging earlier than the fighting Ukrainians. In many debates about the situation on the battlefield, a "negotiated solution" is currently being presented as the likely consequence of the dwindling fighting power as a way out of the war. If the Ukrainian population and ultimately President Volodymyr Zelenskyi were to realize that Russia cannot be defeated, then Kiev would finally agree to "peace talks".

But it takes two to talk, and the Russian president has never shown or even declared a willingness to negotiate. Only recently, he reiterated in a speech that Ukraine is not an independent nation and must be brought under Russian control. From day one of the war, the Kremlin has been propagating the conquest of the neighboring country, resulting in military dominance throughout Europe.

Negotiations stand in the way of this goal and are not necessary from Putin's perspective. The president sees his troops on the road to victory - not least because of the hesitancy of Western aid for Ukraine. From his point of view, his original expectation that the West would not stand together and abandon Ukraine is now coming true - with some delay.

9 The USA is already rehearsing its departure

Western support, which has been too weak over the past 18 months to enable Ukraine to win, is now facing a dramatic collapse: Democrats and Republicans in the US Congress are unable to agree on a new aid package because the conservatives want to buy a stricter migration policy with their approval.

President Joe Biden wants to invest more than USD 43.6 billion "in the US industrial base" in order to increase weapons and ammunition production capacities and replenish stocks. In total, the Ukraine package is to be worth 60 billion dollars. However, the majority of Republicans reject the aid and will only agree to it if they get tougher asylum laws passed in return. The Democrats do not want to be blackmailed. The White House warned Congress that the money for Ukraine would run out "by the end of the year".

Politicians such as the Green Party's Anton Hofreiter and CSU leader Manfred Weber are trying to make the dramatic situation clear to their European colleagues shortly before the next EU summit: "Now it is all the more important for Europe," Hofreiter told RND, urging European partners to order weapons systems from the arms industry "quickly and extensively". Weber, leader of the European Conservatives, warned: "If Ukraine loses this war, there will be no peace, Putin will continue to attack us." He also called on the heads of state and government to provide further aid. "The EU summit next week must send a clear signal of support, we stand by Ukraine."

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Despite the urgent need for weapons and ammunition, the USA's aid to Ukraine has been dwindling. The political stalemate in the US Congress over a new aid package has led to a potential depletion of funds by the end of the year. This could greatly hinder Ukraine's ability to maintain its defensive positions and stall Russian advancements.

2. Russia and USA have differing views on the war in Ukraine

The attitude of the West, including the USA, towards the ongoing war in Ukraine contrasts significantly with that of Russia. While the West appears reluctant to provide the necessary resources for Ukraine to win, Russia continues to push forward with its military objectives without showing any willingness to negotiate.

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Source: www.ntv.de