After the election - New president in Iran - muted hope for change
After his victory in the Iranian Presidential election, the relatively moderate candidate Massud Peseschkian faces significant challenges. Many of his voters may expect a policy change from him. Whether this will be successful depends on several factors.
The former Iranian President Hassan Ruhani sees the opportunity for the resumption of atomic negotiations with Peseschkian's election, as quoted by the newspaper "Shargh" the ex-Prime Minister.
Peseschkian secured his victory in a runoff election on Friday with 53.7% of the votes against his ultra-conservative challenger Said Jalili. The politician is part of the reformist camp. Its supporters aim to reform the Islamic Republic from within without disturbing the fundamental power relations, such as the absolute authority of the religious leader in the state. Observers see his victory as a blow to the conservative ruling elite and a success for the relatively moderate reformist camp, which has been sidelined from politics in recent years.
Peseschkian said on Saturday that it is now necessary to "deal with the various challenges and crises." There are several: Iran is under international sanctions due to its controversial atomic program and is largely cut off from the global financial system. The country needs investments in the billions. Unemployment and income inequality are high. The society is not only divided since the latest protest wave, which was triggered by the death of a young woman in the hands of the morality police in 2022, but also externally due to the conflict with Israel and the West.
Religious Leader Khamenei calls for cooperation between factions
Peseschkian has announced improvements in relations with the West and criticized the headscarf policy in the country during the campaign. Given the complex political situation and powerful interest groups in Iran, it is unclear whether the actual significant shift in course from the Stichwahlsieger Peseschkian is to be expected. Observers assume that he will try to redesign both domestic and foreign policy and thus also revive the ailing economy.
Peseschkian's influence will also depend significantly on Religious Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the most powerful man in the state. In addition, there are influential interest groups such as the Revolutionary Guards - Iran's elite military, which also has a significant economic power in the country. Whether there will be recognizable course changes will be decided by the Revolutionary Guards.
According to the newspaper "Shargh," citing parliamentary representatives, Peseschkian will be sworn in on the 4th or 5th of August. After that, the president has 15 days to present his cabinet. From the 22nd of August, this should be confirmed by the parliament. The hardliners have a majority there. Religious Leader Khamenei called for the political rivalry between Peseschkian and the hardliners to be transformed into friendship after the election of Peseschkian and the defeat of the hardliner candidate. However, cooperation between the hardliners and the reformist camp is considered unlikely.
A majority of eligible Iranian voters did not vote [
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Iran's political system combines republican and theocratic traits since the 1979 Revolution. Free elections do not exist: The so-called Guardian Council, a powerful Islamic oversight body, vets candidates. This time, only six out of 80 presidential candidates were approved as contenders in the first round.
Few Iranians and Iranians believe in change in the country. Reforms of the political system are said to be impossible, it is often resignedly stated. The weeks leading up to the election were marked by striking apathy, as during the recent parliamentary election. In the first round, turnout reached a historically low 40%, and in the runoff, it reached 49.8%.
The early election followed the death of incumbent Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash in May. His nearly three-year tenure was marked by political repression, protest waves, and a deteriorating economic situation.
New President seeks to regain people's trust
In this context, Peseschkian campaigned for a new relationship between the government and the people. He brings political experience to the table. During Mohammed Chatami's second presidency (2001-2005), Peseschkian served as Health Minister. Despite his moderate rhetoric, he aligned himself with the powerful Revolutionary Guards and praised the drone and rocket attack on the arch-enemy Israel in April. In the TV debates, he described himself as a value-conservative politician who, however, considers reforms necessary.
- Despite his victory in the run-off election, Peseschkian's relationship with the ultra-conservative faction, particularly Said Jalili, remains uncertain due to his stance on reforms.
- The woman's death in the hands of the morality police in 2022 sparked widespread protests and deepened the societal divide in Iran, a challenge Peseschkian must address.
- With Iran's nuclear program under international scrutiny and sanctions, Peseschkiani's efforts to improve relations with the West could face opposition from powerful interest groups like the Revolutionary Guards.
- Peseschkian's presidency is also influenced by the religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who called for cooperation between factions following the election, indicating potential obstacles in implementing change.
- During his campaign, Peseschkian criticized Iran's headscarf policy and expressed a desire for improved relations with the West, positions that could generate controversy within the Iranian political landscape.
- The run-off election victory led to calls for policy shifts, but it remains questionable whether Peseschkian has the support and power to significantly alter domestic and foreign policies and improve Iran's struggling economy.
- With strong opposition from hardliners in parliament, Peseschkian faces challenges in presenting and confirming his cabinet, potentially limiting his ability to implement significant changes during his presidency.
