New Hampshire's high-stakes gubernatorial contest scrutinizes the influence of voters who support candidates from different political parties, nicknamed ticket-splitters.
The ex-single-term Republican senator is making another attempt in New Hampshire this year, battling in the nation's most intense gubernatorial contest.
Yet, the influence of the top presidential nominee is significant, causing unease among some Republicans in New Hampshire, as they doubt the number of Kamala Harris supporters Ayotte can persuade if Trump looks set to lose in the area.
Democrats are aiming to turn the competition into a national issue, targeting Ayotte on abortion and Trump. However, Republicans are attempting to focus on local matters, disparaging Craig's tenure as Manchester mayor, linking her to the city's homelessness and drug troubles.
"She didn't appear to make any effort to help," commented Ray Lawrence, a 73-year-old resident, finishing lunch in Manchester. Lawrence admires Ayotte's Senate and former attorney general records and supports Trump.
On the opposite side, Claudette Laroche, a 71-year-old resident from Hooksett, stated her reason for backing Craig: "She stands up for women."
The contention between Ayotte and Craig will test the durability of ticket-splitting in a state that does it more frequently than most but also leans slightly blue at the federal level. Hillary Clinton won New Hampshire by a meager margin in 2016; Joe Biden increased that win four years later.
"If voters decide they're voting against Trump, I don't see evidence of many drawing a distinction between other Republicans and Trump," said former state GOP Chairman Fergus Cullen, an Ayotte supporter and self-proclaimed "Never Trump Republican."
"There's plenty of evidence that voters know how to split their ticket, but this is an open-seat race," Cullen observed, noting Ayotte's weaker record compared to Sununu's.
Abortion influences Democratic voters
In her 2016 reelection bid, Ayotte withdrew her support for Trump following the release of the "Access Hollywood" tape. Many attributed her close loss to Democrat Maggie Hassan to this move, as it reportedly dampened support for her among Trump supporters.
This year, Ayotte is in favor of Trump.
"Of course, we had our differences in '16," Ayotte said during an interview with WMUR while campaigning for the GOP nomination. "But with where we are as a country right now, there's no question that he's the right choice."
Ayotte's shift on Trump has served as a target for Democratic attacks, forming part of their broader strategy to question her integrity.
"Now that Kelly Ayotte's running again, she'll say anything to win," the narrator in a New Hampshire Democratic Party ad claims, displaying her 2016 comments on Trump.
Democrats accuse Ayotte of having a controversial stance on abortion as well, citing certain Senate votes, such as defunding Planned Parenthood, and her role as a guide through the confirmation process for Trump-appointed Supreme Court justice Neil Gorsuch, who voted to overturn Roe v. Wade.
"She's had too much history with Kelly Ayotte," commented 40-year-old Arthur Lahey while walking down Elm Street.
Ayotte, who has described herself as "pro-life," argues that she will defend "New Hampshire law," which permits abortion up to 24 weeks.
"I won't change this law, and I'd use the veto pen if someone sends me a law that's more restrictive on your rights," Ayotte says in one ad.
"We all know what they're doing," she reports in another spot, reacting to her Democratic opponents' accusations. "Politicizing abortion to win votes. It's wrong, and it's not New Hampshire."
These statements don't seem convincing to Bill Lonergan, 62, who was out in Manchester on a rainy Friday. "I'm a little concerned about Ayotte on abortion," he said, holding his young granddaughter. "I don't trust her," he continued, arguing that her position of not signing abortion restrictions sounded overly cautious.
Ayotte's campaign did not respond to CNN's requests for comment.
Republicans emphasize law and order
At Manchester's Puritan Backroom restaurant, two Trump supporters at the bar stated they were supporting Ayotte.
"She's conservative," said 59-year-old Susan Berntsen, lamenting Craig's management of Manchester, which now has a Republican mayor.
Berntsen and her sister claimed homelessness and begging on the streets had become unmanageable, making outdoor dining unattractive.
"I don't trust her," Berntsen concluded, echoing the same phrase Democrats have used against Ayotte.
"Kelly Ayotte isn't a favored candidate either," Berntsen added. "We're pro-Trump supporters, and she distanced herself from him" during the 2016 Senate race. "However, we must consider what's best for the state now."
Advertisements from Ayotte's side criticize Craig for intensifying Manchester's "homelessness issue" predicament – displaying footage of a location commonly referred to as "Craigville," a homeless encampment. They also accuse her of trying to boost Manchester's taxes six times. In a state that does not have an income tax, Republicans are attempting to exploit worries about the city "transforming into Massachusetts," connecting Craig to Democratic Governor Maura Healey of Massachusetts.
Manchester aldermen, under Craig's leadership, approved budgets that exceeded the city's tax cap – a limit that restricts the amount of revenue that can be generated via property taxes – although this wasn't a component of Craig's personal budget proposals. Craig's campaign maintains that during her term, city expenses escalated due to reduced state funding, and overall property taxes actually decreased. She has stated that as governor, she would veto any proposed sales or income tax but supports the tax on dividends, arguing it impacts the affluent.
In an interview at her Manchester campaign office, Craig emphasized her dedication to addressing homelessness – establishing the first city-funded shelter – and constructing affordable housing, while highlighting Ayotte's involvement with private equity giant Blackstone. A recent advertisement from Craig aims to depict Manchester in a more positive light, featuring Democratic ex-Governor John Lynch praising the city's advanced manufacturing jobs.
GOP advertisements portraying Manchester in a negative light drew criticism from some Manchester voters, prompting Ayotte's campaign to remove an advertisement last month that incorrectly suggested a notorious murder occurred while Craig was mayor.
However, former GOP chairman Cullen believes the larger criticisms towards Manchester's administration may prove effective, as most state voters do not reside there. “Mayors have challenges moving up due to this reason,” he stated.
Craig gains support from both national parties and a strong Democratic coordinated campaign within the state, while Ayotte's campaign primarily depends on her. She securing the support of the Republican Governors Association, which has recently mentioned not allocating additional funds for North Carolina – the only other highly competitive gubernatorial race in the cycle – following a CNN report about the GOP candidate's provocative remarks.
“The RGA is fully dedicated to retaining New Hampshire's Republican control to ensure New Hampshire's prosperity persists, and there's no one better suited for this task than Kelly Ayotte,” claimed RGA spokesperson Courtney Alexander in a statement. “Joyce Craig neglected Manchester and, if given the chance, would do the same to the whole Granite State.”
A recent poll conducted in the Granite State by the University of New Hampshire revealed no clear front-runner between Ayotte and Craig.
Nevertheless, if Harris wins New Hampshire, the question remains: how narrow of a margin would Ayotte need to surpass to keep the governorship in Republican hands?
If it's less than single digits, Cullen believes Ayotte can emerge victorious.
Mike Dennehy, a New Hampshire Republican strategist, concurred: “You can pry off a few percentage points – perhaps 3 or at most 4.”
However, Dennehy commented, beyond that, it becomes difficult.
“I believe if Trump loses by 6 to 8 points, it's likely the Democrats will win the state house,” he asserted.
In the heated gubernatorial race in New Hampshire, Ayotte's stance on abortion is becoming a contentious issue, with Democrats accusing her of having a controversial position due to her past Senate votes and her role in the confirmation process of Supreme Court justice Neil Gorsuch. (from text)
The political ad from the New Hampshire Democratic Party criticizes Ayotte, stating, "Now that Kelly Ayotte's running again, she'll say anything to win," displaying her 2016 comments on Trump and his controversial stance on abortion. (new sentence)
