Negative sentiments prevail, FDP's standing is weak, and CDU's progress remains stagnant.
The recent RTL and ntv trend barometer reveals a pessimistic atmosphere in the nation. Support for Scholz and Merz is modest, financial prospects are grim, and the future seems uncertain for the ruling parties, particularly the FDP.
The trend barometer might actually amplify the FDP's concerns instead of alleviating them. The Greens, who are also enduring struggles, might find solace in the Forsa poll results, as they gained one point, reaching 11 percent, while the Liberals lost one point, dropping to 3 percent.
With respect to other parties, no substantial changes have been observed from the previous week. The CDU remains the dominant force with 31 percent, followed by AfD (17 percent), SPD (16 percent), BSW (7 percent), and Left (3 percent). The "Other" category remains high at 12 percent. The Union fails to capitalize further on the FDP's weakness or the coalition as a whole, as they have consistently scored between 31 and 32 percent throughout the year.
October has been a challenging month for the FDP. They plummeted to 3 percent initially and have consistently scored between 4 and 6 percent since then. The 11.5 percent result they achieved in the 2021 Bundestag election appears to be a distant memory now.
The Greens have managed to maintain stability for half a year, albeit at a low level. However, the long-term trend is downward. They started the year at 14 percent and dropped to 10 percent a few weeks ago, but have now bounced back to 11 percent.
The SPD's tax proposals have not proved to be an effective campaign tool yet. 85 percent of respondents are skeptical that there will be a net benefit if social security contributions increase as anticipated.
Key themes: Ukraine and the federal government itself
The most significant topics for the 2500 respondents were the conflict in Ukraine (37 percent), the perception of the federal government (35 percent), and the economic situation (33 percent), followed by the Middle East conflict (30 percent), the U.S. election campaign (14 percent), immigration (13 percent), climate/environment (8 percent), and the formation of governments after the September state elections (7 percent).
Should the Germans have the power to directly elect the federal chancellor, neither incumbent Olaf Scholz nor Union candidate Friedrich Merz would have an obvious advantage. Neither garners enthusiasm. Merz now has a slight superiority, with 28 percent backing him, compared to 24 percent for Scholz. This advantage is attributable more to Scholz's decline than Merz's ascent. Merz's values have remained steady at 28 percent for an extended period, while Scholz has lost eight points since May, when he was at 32 percent and Merz at 29 percent. Significantly, Merz performs better among men, while Scholz performs better among women. Both perform well in the west, but the gap is consistent in both regions (East: Scholz 21, Merz 25 / West: Scholz 24, Merz 28).
Disappointing competence ratings, dismal economy
The competence ratings attributed to the parties by respondents remain severely low. The CDU and CSU continue to be the most trusted, with 18 percent believing they can best address Germany's challenges. The SPD, Greens, AfD, and FDP all receive low trust levels of 8 percent, 6 percent, 7 percent, and 1 percent respectively.
The sentiment on the economy remains bleak. 62 percent anticipate a decline in the coming years. Only 14 percent are hopeful for an improvement, with 21 percent expecting the situation to remain unchanged. The sentiment has been poor throughout the year, albeit slightly better during the summer, when 18 percent felt optimistic and "just" 57 percent felt pessimistic.
The "Traffic lights" coalition, consisting of the SPD, Greens, and FDP, might find their concerns about public sentiment amplified after seeing the results of the RTL and ntv trend barometer. Despite the Greens gaining a point, the FDP continues to struggle, with their support dropping to 3 percent in October, a significant decline from their 11.5 percent in the 2021 Bundestag election.
