Nearly eighteen million early votes have been cast, and counting continues. Here's what we've established so far.
On a Tuesday early on, media sources stated that over 15 million Americans had already voted. By noon on the same day, CNN, drawing from information from election officials, Catalist, and Edison Research, reported an increase to over 18 million votes. The number would continue to grow, considering the total ballots cast in 2020 hit over 150 million.
In Georgia, the Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger predicted that approximately 70% of votes in the state would be cast before Election Day.
A striking trend from Catalist's data showed a hint of the Republican party potentially narrowing the Democratic advantage in early voting. The Republican Party held a leading position in Nevada, and the parties were even in North Carolina, according to the early data. This concern for Democrats might arise from the memory of 2020 when mail-in Democratic votes were crucial in Joe Biden's victory. It might also indicate that Republicans are giving more emphasis to early voting initiatives.
Regardless, an increase in early Republican votes could help minimize the observed "blue shift" that occurred when Democratic-leaning, mail-in ballots were counted after Election Day ballots in key states during 2020.
Avoid jumping to conclusions from the early vote
Firstly, all votes have equal weight, regardless of whether cast early or on Election Day. 2020 was an unusual year, marred by the pandemic, which led to a surge in mail-in voting. This year, the early vote will mainly comprise in-person voting.
Though former President Donald Trump hasn't wholeheartedly endorsed early voting, Republican strategists who support him have encouraged his followers to cast their votes ahead of time.
Examine North Carolina
Trump won the state in both 2016 and 2020, but this year, he is playing defense, hosting events across the state.
In North Carolina, equal proportions of Republicans, Democrats, and independents have cast their votes so far, either by mail or in-person early voting.
Doug Heye, a Republican strategist, was of the opinion that he was not focused on the total number of Republican or Democrat votes cast early in the state. Instead, he was observing unaffiliated voters in North Carolina. According to him, these voters would likely decide the election's outcome.
More than 1.4 million ballots have already been cast in North Carolina, compared to nearly 5.5 million total votes cast in 2020.
Heye argued that in states like North Carolina, where margins of victory are minor, the actual deciding few undecided voters would be what matters.
“If you voted early, obviously you’ve already made up your mind,” Heye told CNN’s John Berman. He highlighted events held this very week by Vice President Kamala Harris and former Rep. Liz Cheney, which may appeal to remaining undecided voters.
In essence, things are far from over.
Focus on Georgia
Over 1.7 million people have cast ballots in Georgia, representing a substantial and expanding portion of the state's voters from the 2020 presidential election (approximately 5 million voters). However, Georgia voters do not register by party affiliation, so other factors should be taken into account.
More women, forming 55% of the early vote, have voted in Georgia, compared to men, who make up 45% of the early vote. In 2020, Biden received over half of Georgia women's votes, and women accounted for more than half of all voters.
On the other hand, the largest age group that has cast early ballots in Georgia is older voters. Trump won their votes in 2020, as per exit polls.
Black voters accounted for 29% of Georgia's voters in 2020 (according to the exit polls) and, considering the early votes, they now account for 31% of the 2024 early vote.
Analyze other significant states
In Nevada, few than 1.5 million voters cast ballots for president in 2020. So far in 2024, however, only around 250,000 voters have cast ballots. Interestingly, the gender distribution differs from Georgia—more men than women have voted in Nevada.
Conversely, in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, the Rust Belt states, more women than men have cast early ballots. Fewer than 400,000 ballots have been cast so far in Wisconsin, compared to more than 3 million ballots cast for president in 2020. Approximately a million ballots have been cast early in Pennsylvania in 2024, compared to nearly 7 million total votes in 2020.
In Illinois, White voters account for a slightly larger share of ballots cast so far compared to 2020, while Black voters account for a slightly smaller share. The share of Latino and Asian voters has remained consistent compared to four years ago. In Pennsylvania, where 89% of voters so far are White, the racial breakdown is surprisingly similar to that at the same point in 2020.
Brownstein had a chat with Brookings Institution demographer William Frey, who brings up a fresh analysis suggesting a rise of around one percent in the number of college-educated White voters and voters of color who typically lean towards Democrats across the nation. On the other hand, the number of working-class White voters, a significant constituency of the contemporary Republican Party, has seen a faster decrease in Wisconsin and Michigan compared to Pennsylvania.
According to Brownstein, these seemingly minor shifts could lead to major consequences.
"It seems like a butterfly-effect scenario where... even a slight disturbance in the environment could possibly alter the equilibrium between these two coalitions that are utterly opposed in their visions for the country and almost equally large in size," Brownstein explained on CNN.
CNN’s Molly English, Matt Holt and Ethan Cohen contributed to this piece.
The ongoing political activity in North Carolina might be influenced by the early votes, as the Republican Party and Democrats seem to have equal support among early voters. The importance of unaffiliated voters in deciding the election outcome cannot be overlooked in states like North Carolina with minor margin victories.
In the realm of politics, early voting strategies can significantly impact election results, as demonstrated by the potential "blue shift" observed in 2020 when Democratic-leaning, mail-in ballots were counted after Election Day.
