NATO assembles and spins straw into gold
NATO Building Fortress Europe in Response to Russia's Attack on Ukraine
Due to Russia's aggression in Ukraine, NATO has adapted to the new geopolitical reality. The Commander of the US Armed Forces called the changes in the alliance a "massive shift." In case of an emergency, NATO can deploy half a million soldiers for the defense of Europe within 30 to 100 days. This includes air force, navy, and more. Detailed deployment plans exist for various regions and scenarios, with NATO and its members already conducting corresponding drills. Deterrence is the top priority, as it is hoped that it will not even come to a defense situation. Starting in 2026, US intermediate-range missiles will be stationed in Germany again.
Ukraine has received the greatest informal commitment to membership from the alliance. The path is described as "irreversible" in the final declaration. More may not be possible in practical terms: A conditional entry by Kiev in the midst of the war could mean a NATO intervention and direct confrontation with Russia, which the alliance wants to avoid at all costs. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin also emphasized this at the summit. For the struggling Ukraine, the promise is initially meaningless: nothing at all.
The decision was already circulating among the alliance members before the summit and seemed appealing in sound to many. Sarkastically expressed: It's nice when you don't want to make a decision but want it to sound like you have. Unlike last year in Vilnius, there was no Vladimir Zelensky on the table complaining about the lack of an invitation to the accession process into the alliance. The Ukrainian president has learned to abide by the rules. But wouldn't it perhaps be better for NATO if he hadn't done that? Instead of a direct membership, the EU, Germany, and more than 20 other countries have concluded bilateral military support agreements with Ukraine, which NATO calls the "Ukraine Compact."
Spinning Straw into Gold by the Press Office
Admittedly, this decision was also a headline: For the first time since the end of the Cold War, the United States want to station intermediate-range missiles in Germany again, which can target Russia. If it's about the interests of Ukraine, the PR machine of the alliance also turns this into a headline, which in reality is a zero number. The "irreversible path" is one thing, the additional system of the valuable air defense weapon Patriot, which US President Joe Biden announced at the 75th anniversary festival, is the other. This is an old hat, known for months and already planned in the Ukrainian dispositive.
Five strategic air defense systems have come together, praising Western aid from Biden, three of which have been in use in Ukraine for a long time. And it is clearly not enough, as the murderously successful attack on a children's hospital at the beginning of the week showed. Such a heinous attack earned condemnation even in the closing statement. However, more Patriots from the NATO alliance to shield the country from Vladimir Putin's brutal air attacks are not available.
No One Dares to Invoke the Two-Percent Clause
There should be more joint procurement of military material from NATO partners. The alliance confirms that the greatest and immediate security threat comes from Russia. In previous years, the Kremlin was seen in this way, but in other years, it had not yet converted the Russian economy to war and had invested at least 7 percent of economic output in its own military power, according to western analyses. The NATO demands annual defense spending of 2 percent of GDP from its members.
The NATO members in Europe have come together on this percentage for the first time this year, but nine of the 32 member states remain below it. Should the alliance perhaps also pick up a few more pounds to get a little closer to what the enemy is doing? Many experts and experts have no doubts about this necessity. However, the Two-Percent Clause did not make it onto the summit agenda, and it is questionable whether it will be possible to make a Three-Percent Clause from it soon. Or should it? The topic of costs and cost distribution in the NATO is too sensitive and controversial. No one wants to shake the Two-Percent Pot in Washington.
The Alliance Toughens Its Tone Against China
A new geopolitical alignment was spoken of by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who spoke of cooperation between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea in military matters. He was not the only one. According to the US, Moscow's war in Ukraine would not have been possible without Beijing's support. Practically everything the Russian arms industry needs to produce its weapons comes from there. Blinken proposes sanctions, and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg confirmed that China's support is not much different from direct weapons deliveries to Russia.
The 32 member states describe the country as a "decisive helper" in the Ukraine war in their final declaration. Beijing reacted angrily. A notable step, after all, China is both for the USA and Europe an enormously important trading partner.
Trump is Omnipresent
US President Joe Biden was the host, but Donald Trump, who will be endorsed by the Republicans as a candidate for the November election next week, was still present everywhere. In the decisions, the question lurks between the lines of what would happen if Trump returned to the White House. The great NATO skeptic could block US aid to Ukraine or demand significantly more from the allies. After all, the United States is by far the most important member of the military alliance.
Washington is already giving more control out of its hands, so that the NATO becomes "trumpfester": Instead of the US, the alliance will "very soon" take over the training and coordination of Ukraine aid in a new command center in Wiesbaden. In addition, there is a pledge for weapons deliveries worth 40 billion US dollars next year. With the help of the "Ukraine Compact" agreements, Ukraine and its military should be supported "into the 2030s." Possible returns from the White House do not have to be unavoidable and immediate at the expense of European security.
- Despite Joe Biden's push for increased defense spending among NATO members, only nine out of 32 member states are currently meeting the two-percent goal, a requirement deemed crucial in deterring Russia's aggression towards Ukraine.
- The Ukraine Compact, an agreement between NATO and more than 20 other countries providing military support to Ukraine, was highlighted during the summit, as direct NATO membership for Ukraine remains a contentious issue due to Russia's involvement in the Ukraine-Conflict.
- Donald Trump, slated to be the Republican candidate for the November election, loomed over the summit, raising questions about the future commitments to Ukraine, as the former president had previously criticized NATO and its military spending requirements.
- In addition to the US's announced deployment of intermediate-range missiles in Germany, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg highlighted China's role in supporting Moscow's military capabilities, drawing concern about the emerging geopolitical alignment between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea.
- With Vladimir Putin continuing his aggression towards Ukraine and the growing threat from China, NATO members agreed on the need for joint procurement of military material, consolidating their stance against these external threats, drawing the alliance closer to its two-percent goal in defense spending.
