Myanmar's military loses control
Things are moving in Myanmar. While the situation in the crisis-ridden country, which is shaken by a brutal junta, seemed static for a long time, armed groups have been rising up against the army for several weeks now - with remarkable success.
The generals seem at a loss. The president they appointed, Myint Swe, has already blatantly warned of the disintegration of the former Burma. "2023 is likely to be the worst year for the Myanmar army since the 1960s," wrote journalist Wai Moe, a former political prisoner, in a commentary.
Fighting has been particularly fierce since October 27 in northern Shan State on the border with China, a region known for drug trafficking and gambling and considered lawless. In keeping with the date, the fighters call their offensive "Operation 1027".
Within just a few days, the so-called Brotherhood Alliance - a guerrilla alliance of three ethnic groups - claims to have gained control of important trade routes to China as well as more than 180 bases and outposts. In the important towns of Chinshwehaw and Pansai, flags of the armed opposition now fly instead of the Myanmar national flag. The army is responding with air strikes, but is making no progress on the ground. At the same time, according to the UN, tens of thousands of civilians are on the run.
Fighting on several fronts
The alliance with many experienced resistance fighters consists of three groups: the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Arakan Army (AA). All are traditionally close to China, Myanmar's most important trading partner. Beijing, which is planning major projects in the region as part of its new Silk Road, plays an important role in the conflict.
"We have occupied major cities on the border between China and Myanmar," Li Kyar Wen, a spokesman for the MNDAA, told the German Press Agency. More than 200 junta soldiers had been killed and hundreds more had surrendered. At the same time, army weapons and ammunition had been confiscated. The reports cannot be independently verified in view of the confusing situation. However, observers say that the military is facing its biggest challenge since the coup in February 2021.
One reason for this is that fighting is taking place on several fronts and in different parts of the country. Armed groups have also risen up against the military in other states in the course of the offensive and taken over villages and military posts - for example in Chin State on the border with India and Bangladesh, in Karenni State in the far east, in Rakhine State, in Kachin State and in the Sagaing region.
Chinese gangs and fraud factories
But the morale of the junta troops is now also at an all-time low. Since the overthrow and the arrest of Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi, the soldiers have felt the full force of the population's hatred. In many places, the generals can hardly find any new recruits to fight for them.
But what role does China play? As is so often the case, the People's Republic seems to be using the conflict for its own interests. However, the current situation is complicated: Although Beijing maintains diplomatic relations with the junta, there are also traditionally close contacts with the guerrilla groups.
In the border region of the huge Shan State, which makes up around a quarter of Myanmar, casinos and so-called scam factories run by Chinese gangs are booming alongside the drug trade. These are mainly run by people from Myanmar, Laos or Cambodia who have been lured in with promises of a lucrative job - but are then forced to commit criminal acts. They are supposed to use fake accounts to persuade wealthy people in the West to transfer money or invest in cryptocurrencies.
Striving for self-determination and democracy
These factories operated by dubious cartels are a thorn in the side of the leadership in Beijing. It has long urged the junta in Myanmar to take action against these machinations - with moderate success. The guerrilla groups have now apparently promised to put an end to the fraud factories as part of their offensive. Beijing will probably tolerate "Operation 1027" and the resulting instability in the border region if it solves the problem of online scam factories, says Nan Lwin, a China expert at ISP-Myanmar, a non-partisan think tank.
Next, the MNDAA says it plans to attack Laukkai, the capital of the Kokang region. Formerly an important opium-growing region, the area is now considered a center for online gambling and cyber fraud.
It is currently impossible to predict what the nationwide offensives will mean in the long term. What seems certain is that many ethnic groups in the multi-ethnic state are pursuing a similar goal: The end of the generals and self-determination. "Throughout the country, we are currently fighting together against the military regime to pave the way for the establishment of a federal democracy," said Khun Beedu, leader of the Karenni Nationalities Defense Force (KNDF). "While there may be collateral damage and casualties during the operations, the ultimate goal is the complete eradication of the junta."
The military in Burma is facing severe conflicts on various fronts, with the Brotherhood Alliance significantly expanding their control in Shan State and taking over important trade routes and bases. This has led to air strikes by the army but no progress on the ground, causing tens of thousands of civilians to flee.
Amidst these conflicts, Chinese gangs and fraud factories have been flourishing in Shan State, a major concern for China due to its lucrative projects and diplomatic relations with the junta. The guerrilla groups have promised to put an end to these fraud factories as part of their offensive, potentially leading to Beijing's tolerance of the instability.
Source: www.dpa.com
