Most recent CNN "Road to 270" chart indicates minor yet significant shift favoring Harris.
We're making a minor yet significant alteration to our ongoing "Path to 270" electoral chart as we approach the campaign's final five weeks. If there are considerable shifts in polls or financial investments by candidates and teams in the remaining battlegrounds, we might adjust our viewpoint before Election Day.
Check out CNN's "Road to 270" INTERACTIVE MAP for a visual representation.
In this edition of our Electoral College forecast, we're shifting the solitary electoral vote from Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District from a toss-up to favoring Harris.
Nebraska, alongside Maine, is one of the two states that splits some of its electoral votes. Harris holds a substantial lead in the bid for the electoral vote from the Omaha-area seat, according to a CNN poll by SSRS published last Friday and a New York Times/Siena College poll over the weekend. In 2020, Biden won the district by over 6 points en route to securing the presidency. Campaigns spending in Nebraska has heavily favored Harris and her allies, with plans to maintain and perhaps increase this advantage in the campaign's closing weeks.
This small shift on the map points out the most straightforward paths for both Harris and Trump to amass the 270 electoral votes necessary to secure the presidency. In aggregate polling of the seven pivotal battleground states, Harris scores slightly higher against Trump in the Rust Belt states, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, versus the Sun Belt states, Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona. If Harris mirrors Biden's 2020 victories in the "blue wall" states and picks up the electoral vote in Nebraska's Omaha-area district, she would reach the 270-vote threshold and claim the presidency.
If Trump repeats his 2020 triumphs in every state he won, he'd need to flip just two states – Georgia and Pennsylvania – to get 270 electoral votes and secure another four years in the White House. However, this scenario relies on North Carolina remaining in his column, as CNN's most recent poll in North Carolina shows a tied race between Harris and Trump at 48%.
As the campaign's final 35 days approach, monitoring the advertising budgets devoted to convincing undecided voters and encouraging loyal supporters to turn out and vote is illuminating. In September, the Harris campaign and its allies spent nearly twice as much on advertising in the seven battleground states as compared to Trump and the Republican coalition. According to AdImpact, the Democrats invested approximately $293 million on ads, while the Republicans put in roughly $157 million in the same period. Three high-value states, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Michigan, accounted for more than 60% of the total investment made that month.
At present, Trump holds 24 states (including one congressional district in Maine) that are either secure or leaning toward him, amassing 219 electoral votes, 51 votes short of the 270 necessary to secure victory. In contrast, Harris has 19 states, the District of Columbia, and Nebraska's congressional district that are either solidly behind her or leaning in her direction, totaling 226 electoral votes, 44 votes shy of the 270 mark.
Let's clarify what this electoral outlook is and isn't. It's a snapshot of the current Electoral College landscape, suggesting it might be a close and significant election. However, this doesn't imply a forecast of the election's outcome in November.
We create this outlook based on public and private polling, exchanges with campaign strategists, and conversations with political operatives and representatives across both major parties.
Solid Republican: (Total: 188 electoral votes)
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Iowa (6), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (4), Nebraska (4), North Dakota (3), Ohio (17), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (40), Utah (6), West Virginia (4), Wyoming (3)
Leans Republican: (Total: 31 electoral votes)
Florida (30), Maine 2nd Congressional District (1)
Toss-ups: (Total: 93 electoral votes)
Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19), Wisconsin (10)
Leans Democratic: (Total: 51 electoral votes)
Colorado (10), Minnesota (10), Nebraska 2nd Congressional District (1), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Oregon (8), Virginia (13)
Solid Democratic: (Total: 175 electoral votes)
California (54), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), DC (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (19), Maine (3), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14), New York (28), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12)
CNN's David Wright contributed to this report.
The ongoing political discussions surrounding the upcoming election are heavily focused on the battleground states, as small shifts in polls or campaign funding could considerably impact the outcome. Analysts are closely watching the political landscape in Nebraska, where polls suggest a substantial lead for Joe Biden's running mate Kamala Harris in the Omaha-area electoral vote district.
