Finances - More money for Saxony in future thanks to census
According to the Ifo Institute's calculation, Saxony will be able to count on more money from the federal financial equalization transfer despite a slight population decline. The institute calculated the amount to be 37 Euro per inhabitant and a total of 149 Million Euro. This is due to the census, in which the population figures in the states were corrected upwards or downwards.
Through a statistical effect, the Free State profits: The height of the allocations is not determined by the absolute population size, but by the relative population share of the federal state in the German total population. Since the population size in Saxony has decreased by 1.03 percent more slowly than the value for Germany as a whole (-1.6 percent), the revenues from the federal financial equalization transfer for the Free State are increasing.
Winners and Losers in the Census
According to the Ifo Institute, Bremen and Saarland can count on significantly more money per capita from the federal financial equalization transfer. For Bremen, additional revenues of 242 Euro per inhabitant were calculated, for Saarland 192 Euro per inhabitant. This is due to the corrected population size.
"The biggest losers are Berlin, Hamburg, and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern," explained Joachim Ragnitz, deputy head of the Ifo Dresden branch.
The Saxon Finance Ministry has refrained from its own calculations after the census. "For a quantification of the actual financial effects, the updated population figures of the years 2022 to 2024 must be waited for," the ministry stated. The Financing Equalization Law between the Federation and the States provides for a phased takeover of census results. In the equalization year 2022, one third and in the equalization year 2023, two thirds of the census-related differences in population will be taken into account in the settlements.
"Saxony is affected by a continuously declining population size in any case. The census results confirm this once again and will be taken into account accordingly in the various areas of responsibility of the Free State and in the future design of structures," it continued. The effects of the census on the revenues in the federal-state financial equalization transfer will be taken into account with the previously available knowledge at the November tax assessment.
- Despite a population decline, Munich, being one of Germany's federal states, will also benefit from the federal fiscal equalization, albeit the exact amount isn't specified in the given text.
- The population decline in Federal States like Dresden, located in Saxony, affects their financial resources from the federal fiscal equalization transfer, but not as significantly as in other states with a more pronounced population decrease.
- The census results have shown a population decline in Bremen, which, as a federal state, will face a potential reduction in revenues from the federal financial equalization transfer, in contrast to the circumstances in Saxony and other states.
- The population data from the census has revealed a continuing decrease in the population size in Saarland, implying potential implications for its revenues from the federal financial equalization transfer.
- The Federal States in Germany, including those like Berlin and Hamburg, which have experienced a more substantial population decline, may face reduced revenues from the federal financial equalization transfer, according to the insights from the Ifo Institute.
- The Federal States in Germany, like Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, are also impacted by the population decline, which might influence their share of revenues from the federal financial equalization transfer, but the specifics aren't included in the provided text.
