Podcast 'Die Lage - international' - Mölling sees 'no hope' for turnaround in Ukraine
The war in Ukraine, according to security expert Christian Mölling's assessment, is expected to continue running for foreseeable future as it has been. "There is no hope for a quick improvement for the Ukrainians or a quick end to the war that is not brought about under Russian conditions," he said in the stern-Podcast "Die Lage – international" on Friday. An end to the fighting under Russian conditions would not bring peace but only give Russia time to prepare for a new invasion of its neighbor.
The research director of the German Council on Foreign Relations accused Russia of "disrespectful attacks," in which it sacrifices a large number of its own soldiers piece by piece. Ukraine, on the other hand, now has more artillery ammunition at its disposal but not enough infantry. It can only defend itself with great effort.
According to Mölling's words, Russia must also mobilize all its reserves to continue the war. He referred to investigations that the Russian economy is far from flourishing but is under massive pressure. However, it is not an option for President Vladimir Putin to stop the war – as this could lead to the downfall of his regime. Ukraine also has few alternatives. Russian bombing raids on cities and infrastructure continue, as do advances at the front. "The question is: Whose reserves will run out first?" the expert said. "We are on a precarious path, where both sides can't do much."
Ukraine War: Mediation Out of Sight
Mölling set low expectations for current efforts to reach a negotiated solution. He saw the Beijing trip of Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba not as the beginning of China's mediation role. "Diplomats do diplomat things," he said in response to the praise of the Ukrainians for China's role, which is closely aligned with Russia. Behind the scenes, the Chinese had reportedly told the Ukrainians that they had "moderated" their demands, according to his impression.
He expected from the US a continuation of the previous policy if Kamala Harris were to be elected as the next president. However, great importance would be attached to the future majority relations in both chambers of the US Congress, which would have the power to decide on the budget and thus also on support for Ukraine. In addition to the president and vice president, the House of Representatives and one third of the Senate will be elected in November.
Christian Mölling mentioned that Russia, currently involved in the ongoing war in Ukraine, might need to mobilize its reserves to sustain the conflict, as the Russian economy is under significant pressure. Despite Russia's relentless bombing raids and frontline advances, Ukraine, according to Mölling, is also confronted with limited options and faces great challenges in defending itself due to a lack of infantry.
