International Discussion Podcast: 'The Situation' - Mölling perceives the confidence in Germany's aid to Ukraine as eroding
The ongoing disagreement within the federal government has significantly undermined the belief in the credibility of German Ukraine aid, according to security analyst Christian Mölling. On the stern podcast "The Situation - international", Mölling points out: "What the federal government should focus on is that many, almost everyone, thinks it could cut off the supply." The research director of the German Foreign Policy Society criticizes that Germany has failed to assure that there will be no interruption in support: "The whole commotion would have played out differently if it had been said that we'll foot the bill no matter what, even if the arrangement with interest payments doesn't work out."
"Significant harm to the foundation"
This proposed funding of aid through interest on frozen Russian assets in the West is theoretically sound, but a technical solution with uncertain outcomes. "The issue is: The money hasn't arrived yet, and the method of getting it to Ukraine isn't completely clear," says Mölling. "Germany has tripped over this plan, causing significant harm to the foundation internationally."
There isn't just uncertainty for Ukraine, but also for the weapons industry, which requires dependability to expand its capabilities. Mölling mentions that only money for previously committed aid is included in future budgets, not for new shipments. These would be facilitated through a loan from major Western industrialized countries to Ukraine, which would be repaid with interest on Russian assets.
"Are we backing Ukraine or not?"
Furthermore, Mölling states that the requested 50 billion dollars in aid through Russian interest payments is not as significant as it may seem. "50 billion sounds impressive at first," Mölling acknowledges. But when considering the timeframes and involved actors, it's not that substantial.
Ultimately, it's not just about a few billion dollars in the next budget. "The core political question is: Are we backing Ukraine or not?", says Mölling on the stern podcast. In this debate, it's important that the aid isn't just about Ukraine, but also about Germany's security. This often gets overlooked, and not all parties in government have recognized that Russia is an imperialistic power. He warns against acting as if the threat from Russia can be repelled without consequences for prosperity. "That's the welcoming lie," he says. "But you can tell this lie, so they all tell it."
The budgetary dispute over the funding of aid to Ukraine has further complicated Germany's image in international relations. Failure to reach a consensus on this matter could potentially lead to a budgetary dispute within the German government itself, potentially causing further harm to the foundation of its aid efforts.
