The Situation – International - Mölling: Kursk invasion damages belief in Putin's strength
The advance of Ukrainian troops into the Russian region of Kursk is challenging the widely held belief in the strength of President Vladimir Putin, according to military expert Christian Mölling. In a Friday interview on the stern podcast "The Situation - International", Mölling stated, "The narrative that the Kremlin is pushing, that Russia's victory is inevitable, is currently being completely undermined." Mölling, the research director of the German Society for Foreign Policy, suggests that this shift in perception could have implications even for the upcoming eastern German state elections. Militarily, however, the Ukrainian push is far less significant, as it only involves a small part of Russian territory, which Mölling believes the Ukraine will struggle to maintain control over in the long term. He predicts, "In two or three weeks, we will see headlines saying 'The tide is turning'." The Ukrainians, he warns, are heavily reliant on a functioning logistics chain to supply their troops beyond their own borders, and this could eventually become a problem for them.
Putin Prioritizes Front in Donbass
Mölling assesses that the Russian regime has decided not to split its military forces, which was one of the goals of the Ukrainian operation. Therefore, for Putin, "Continuing the attack on Ukraine, particularly on the front in Donbass, is more important than protecting its own borders and people." He is not willing to abandon the offensive operation, even if it means deploying conscripts in the Kursk region. "If you don't look at the timeline, Russia naturally has enormous reserves," said Mölling. "But the only reserves Russia can currently activate in the short term are conscripts."
Warning of Retaliatory Strike
Despite this, Mölling does not initially expect any internal destabilization of the Russian leadership. "Putin has such a large apparatus of violence at his disposal that he can initially suppress any protests," he said. He warns of a retaliatory strike by Russia in response to the Ukrainian attack. "Revenge is a motive for this system," he said. "I would expect there to be a major act of revenge." Especially if the impression of weakness arises, the regime in Moscow may try to demonstrate its capabilities with a particularly brutal counterstroke.
The Russian regime, as suggested by Mölling, sees continuing the attack on Ukraine, specifically on the front in Donbass, as a priority over protecting its own borders and people, due to their decision not to split their military forces. Moreover, Mölling warns of a potential retaliatory strike by Russia in response to the Ukrainian attack, highlighting revenge as a motivating factor for the Russian system.
