Who drove the surge of the AfD?
Merz urges backers of the coalition parties to cast their votes for CDU in the upcoming election.
A shared viewpoint between Scholz and Merz surfaced in their recent indirect encounter: Merz attributed the strong performance of the AfD to the traffic light coalition - a stance shared by Scholz as well. Regarding the poor performance of the traffic light parties in polls, Scholz clarified in a brief Q&A session following his summer interview that the policy was sound, but the execution left much to be desired. Essentially, Scholz stated that the coalition had made "a multitude of decisions," providing a sense of confidence moving forward. No one understood the specific details of the decisions "hidden in the smokescreen."
Merz also views the traffic light coalition as the primary catalyst for the AfD's success in the European elections in Eastern Germany – primarily referring to their policies, not just the conflicts. Merz highlighted that he's been extensively touring the East, engaging in discussions with people about lingering issues: in refugee policies and integration, employment, and schools. He aimed to find solutions and campaign on these issues during the three eastern state elections in September.
Merz: We can rank first
Regarding these elections in Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg, Merz requested support from other democratic parties and their supporters. "We can place first in the East." This implies that the parties of the political center must agree to vote for the CDU in the first round.
The CDU has won all municipal runoff elections in Thuringia uncontested. "This demonstrates the strength of the CDU. Assuming others are willing to join us in such elections." In Thuringia and Saxony, where the SPD, Greens, and FDP are struggling and could potentially fall below the 5% threshold, Merz could only urge voters to support the CDU.
Agreement on BSW collaboration
Both Scholz and Merz agreed that the question of cooperation with the BSW in the states would be decided locally. The SPD's position is that such decisions would be made locally, according to Scholz. The SPD, however, is in agreement that the AfD is an unacceptable partner. "And there are choices to be made locally." For the federal level, Scholz ruled out cooperation with the BSW as unfeasible.
Similarly, Scholz showed the same attitude. He ruled out cooperation with the BSW at the federal level. He described the BSW as a "Single-Person Party" that is "extremist in many areas," while being "active" on subjects like immigration and integration, "which we only hear from the AfD." The regional parties in the countries must decide what transpires "after these extremely challenging state elections in the fall." There has always been consensus in the CDU about this.
However, Merz seemed to convey a different message two weeks ago. At that time, he declared that the BSW was "right-extremist in some issues, left-extremist in others." He ruled out cooperation with the BSW altogether at that time. After criticism from the lands, he corrected himself.
A similar situation occurred in the previous year. During that time, Merz momentarily suspended the party's distinction from the AfD for the communal level in a ZDF summer interview – only to later clarify that he hadn't intended it. The result was a lively discussion among the Union members, providing ambiguous signals to voters and supporters. This should not occur again.
"Something's up"
This year, Scholz is under the spotlight. In response to a survey from Thuringia where the AfD garnered 28 percent, the CDU 23 percent, the Left Party (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht) 21 percent, and the SPD only 7 percent, the Chancellor stated: "Something's up, and I think we can't just ignore it." A dominant theme in Eastern Germany is the support for Ukraine. "But in my opinion, there's no other path for us to change that," emphasized Scholz. Russia attacked Ukraine, which is "a classic conquest war." To prevent such an action from being successful, Ukraine needs further support.
It seemed Scholz felt mistreated. He was a bit annoyed, Scholz said, because in the past two years he had only been asked if he was being too cautious. "I have always advocated for caution and also for utilizing all possibilities to make a peaceful resolution, which is not a surrender of Ukraine, possible. And I will continue to do so."
Merz, however, criticized the Chancellor's stance on Ukraine as overly cautious. The federal government acted too late and inadequately in Ukraine aid. "We should have done more at the start," said the CDU chairman. Now we must look at how we can generate "opportunities" to end this conflict someday.
However, the Union has found a unique approach to address the resentment in Eastern Germans towards the SPD's Ukraine policy: They now demand that no more unemployment benefits be paid to refugees from Ukraine – although European comparison figures do not support the claim that unemployment benefits are the primary reason for less work among Ukrainians in Germany. CSU state group leader Alexander Dobrindt now demands the expulsion of jobless Ukrainians – a proposal that legally cannot be implemented, as it contradicts the EU's mass inflow directive.
The Federal Chancellor acknowledges his party's struggles, feeling like a burden due to dwindling poll numbers. He insists that high-ranking party members will publicly support him as the next Chancellor candidate, promising unity with the statement, "We're in this together." No prominent figure questions his candidacy. The SPD's priority, he stresses, is improving election results and actively fighting for them.
On the other hand, Merz holds a contrary view. When probed about his inexperience in government, he casually remarks, "I reckon the majority of Germans are tired of this federal government's governing experience by now."
Read also:
- Merz criticized the traffic light coalition's refugee policy as one of the issues causing dissatisfaction in Eastern Germany, contributing to the AfD's success in the European elections.
- In light of the upcoming federal election in 2025, Merz urged his party's supporters to vote for the CDU, emphasizing the need for a strong opposition to the current traffic light coalition.
- Scholz expressed concerns about the surge of the AfD in state elections in Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg, noting that the CDU had been winning uncontested in Thuringia municipal runoff elections.
- Regarding the potential for cooperation with the right-wing BSW party in state elections, both Scholz and Merz agreed that it would be a local decision, with Scholz voicing opposition to cooperation at the federal level.
- The Ukraine crisis was a significant topic in the discourse surrounding the SPD and CDU, with Scholz and Merz having differing opinions on the appropriate response to Russia's attack on Ukraine.
- Federal elections in 2025 were not the only focus for Merz, as he also prepared for the Brandenburg state elections, aiming to achieve success in the three elections in September and garnering support from other democratic parties.
