Merz has taken action, and the situation is now escalating significantly
At midday, Friedrich Merz and Markus Söder enter the atrium of Bavaria's Berlin representation, surrounded by the capital's journalists. However, the battle is already over. Over an hour prior, rumors about why this sudden press conference was called spread. The Bavarian leader, Markus Söder, is conceding his candidacy for the upcoming fall election.
"To put it simply, the Union's K-question has been settled. Friedrich Merz will lead it," says Söder, breaking the silence first. "I'm on board with that and wholeheartedly support it," he adds with a surprising air of optimism. He discourages any hopes that the Union might fall apart due to this decision. Instead, the focus is now on challenging the current traffic light coalition. Anything else is secondary.
Merz speaks candidly, in his characteristic grave tone. "When Markus Söder and I started our collaboration two and a half years ago, we vowed that the situations from 2021 wouldn't repeat themselves," he says. "We're fulfilling that promise today." Three years ago, Söder had created difficulties for the Union's chancellor candidate Armin Laschet with constant criticisms. Merz now mentions that it wasn't always smooth sailing, but Söder and he understood their shared responsibility towards the nation.
Merz raises an eyebrow
At the age of 68, Merz experiences the pinnacle of his career. Whether Söder truly is "on board" with this as he claimed, remains to be seen. Notably, the Bavarian had long advocated for his own candidacy. Just last week, he still expressed his readiness. Now, he points out Merz, his followers in tow, who is standing near him. At this very moment, Merz looks at him, raising an eyebrow and frowning in thought.
Merz then clarifies that he had discoursed with the state chairmen of the CDU. The consensus appears to have been strongly in favor of Merz. The CDU deputy chairwoman, Karin Prien, comments casually on ntv: "Someone wanted to be called, but no one called." By Monday evening, when Merz's state chairman, Hendrik Wüst, renounced his candidacy, the writing was on the wall.
The North Rhine-Westphalia Minister President, Wüst, supplies the decisive momentum to the K-question within the Union. Like Söder, Wüst had harbored ambitions for the role. He leads a black-green coalition in North Rhine-Westphalia, making him something of a contrast to Söder, who had ruled out a coalition with the Greens for himself. In the CDU, few seem eager for an open power struggle. Keeping the focus on the current coalition's problems rather than engaging in internal power plays is the preferred approach, especially given the pressing challenges facing the country. Migration, Ukraine, energy supply, to name but a few.
It's Merz now, undeniably. The conservative veteran from Sauerland. The perpetual Merkel rival. The one who seemed long past his prime. When he embarked on his political comeback in 2018, he reintroduced himself as "Merz with an 'e'," due to a mix-up at a federal press conference. Those days are long gone. While he wasn't universally welcomed within the CDU, he nearly defeated Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer in a bid for the party chair. A year later, Armin Laschet emerged victorious. Both were regarded as "Merkelians," while Merz advocated for a departure from Chancellor Merkel's centrist course.
At 66, he assumed the party chairmanship. His time had come following the lost federal election. A party survey revealed that approximately two-thirds supported his return, a result that the party conference soon endorsed. Merz had triumphed on his third attempt: finally, CDU chairman at 66. Soon after, he took over the parliamentary group leadership of the Union in the Bundestag, providing him with the platform he needed. After years of grand coalition rule, life returned to the party. Merz exuded aggression and frequently provoked passionate outbursts from Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
Merz's first task was to clean up the remnants of the CDU following the lost federal election and rebuild the party. The problem was not just a flawed campaign. Many had lost sight of what the party stood for. Conscription had been abolished, nuclear phase-out was set in motion, and same-sex marriage had been legalized. Merz entrusted Carsten Linnemann, now general secretary, with creating a new basic program. The process was more about the journey than the destination, but it revitalized the party. In the numerous working groups, a sense of renewal gradually emerged, a sentiment that many had almost forgotten.
Currently, the CDU is thriving, at least based on initial observations. In surveys, it surpasses the SPD, Greens, and FDP combined. These figures are the best since the federal election, largely due to Merz's efforts. He restored unity within the party, re-established its recognition, and established a constructive and responsible opposition. This wasn't a given situation; at the end of 2021, the CDU was teetering on the brink of oblivion, much like other Christian democratic or center-right parties in Europe had in similar circumstances, such as in France and Italy.
The individual heading the CDU holds the "first right of refusal" for the candidacy, a unique term that speaks volumes about the party's self-perception. And from the perspective of many within the CDU, Merz has certainly earned this privilege, despite controversy. He referred to certain individuals as "little pashas" during an interview with Markus Lanz and faced criticism. He also apologized for implying that Ukrainians were involved in "asylum tourism." Yet, these incidents seem to be in the past. This year, Merz has been seemingly unaffected by scandal, with no major faux pas and a controversial "Der Spiegel" cover story failing to do him lasting damage.
The SPD has expressed hope for Merz as their chancellor candidate.
However, there are dissenting opinions. The performance of the traffic light coalition at the moment is less than impressive, and it's challenging to envision them garnering more than 30 percent, plus a slight margin. Merz's greatest asset is also his liability: he is polarizing. While some view him positively, others vehemently oppose him. Isn't a federal chancellor supposed to be a unifying figure? Is Merz up to the task? It's highly unlikely that SPD or Green voters will say, "Actually, I don't support the CDU, but I'll make an exception for Merz."
Interestingly, the SPD has openly expressed their desire for Merz as their chancellor candidate. They see him as an easy target. This is evident in the trend barometer of RTL and ntv. Currently, only 26 percent endorse him as chancellor. Merz's good fortune lies in the fact that Scholz isn't faring much better. And the SPD and Greens have their own set of issues to contend with. Merz doesn't need to shine to win the election; he just needs to steer the party safely to victory.
A new limelight has now fallen on Merz. He is now the potential chancellor, a marathon leading up to the Chancellery on September 28, 2025. He has the most promising launch pad. However, Armin Laschet had similar advantages before Markus Söder got in the way. But this time, things are supposed to be different.
"Regarding the SPD's interest in Merz as their chancellor candidate, the SPD's trend barometer on RTL and ntv shows only 26% endorsement for him. Despite this, the SPD might view Merz as a weaker opponent, given the current challenges facing Scholz and the SPD-Green coalition."
"The SPD's openness towards Merz as a chancellor candidate could potentially shift the dynamic of the upcoming fall election. However, the SPD must consider the polarizing nature of Merz, as not all voters might be swayed by his candidacy, lending credence to the belief that a federal chancellor should serve as a unifying figure."
