Matt Gaetz withstands McCarthy-supported primary rival, as predicted by CNN, while the duel in Florida's Senate race is confirmed.
Gaetz is predicted to conquer retired Navy pilot Aaron Dimmock, who joined the race for Florida's 1st Congressional District at the last minute and received support from McCarthy's former political crew. The ongoing feud between the California Republican and Gaetz – who spearheaded the bid to oust McCarthy from the speakership – fueled a barrage of contentious commercials totalling over $5.2 million, making it one of the most expensive Republican House primaries this year.
During the election, Gaetz brought up Dimmock's remote work for Missouri's Office of Administration and his previous job as leader of a firm specializing in workplace education. Gaetz's adverts aimed to portray his competitor as a disguised liberal, claiming he "teaches radical liberal ideology to DEI groups in Missouri" and coining the term "DEI Dimmick," short for diversity, equity and inclusion.
McCarthy's revenge spree has seen one notable victory – the defeat of Virginia Rep. Bob Good, chairman of the hard-line House Freedom Caucus – but has otherwise missed the mark.
Nevertheless, the Florida primary may pave the way for efforts to harm Gaetz's future political prospects in the Sunshine State. There have been whispers that he might run for governor in 2026, in what's anticipated to be a packed primary to succeed term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis.
The animosity between Gaetz and McCarthy was evident during the Republican party gathering in Milwaukee last month.
Gaetz interrupted McCarthy's interview with CNN's Kaitlan Collins on the convention floor, stating, "If you took that stage, you would be booed off of it."
In response, McCarthy stated that the Florida congressman appeared "very unhinged."
"There are a lot of people with concerns about it. I'm not sure if he was under the influence, but I hope he receives the help he needs," McCarthy told CNN's Manu Raju later. "But more importantly, I hope that young women receive justice when it comes to him," he added, referencing the ongoing ethics investigation into Gaetz.
An anti-Gaetz super PAC called Florida Patriots PAC spent $3.5 million on the race, attacking Gaetz with intense adverts while also promoting Dimmock.
Several of the group's ads touched upon the allegations of sexual misconduct against Gaetz, which are currently under investigation by the House Ethics Committee.
Gaetz spent approximately $1.5 million on his defense through advertisements. One advert emphasized his connections to former President Donald Trump with video of Gaetz declaring at a rally, "This is Donald Trump's party, and I'm a Donald Trump Republican," and clips of the former president praising Gaetz.
Scott to square off against Mucarsel-Powell
Florida Sen. Rick Scott and Democratic contestant Debbie Mucarsel-Powell will win their US Senate primaries on Tuesday, CNN predicts, setting up a fiercely contested race for a Republican-held seat this year.
Democrats view Florida as one of two potential offensive opportunities – the other being Texas, where Republican Sen. Ted Cruz is also seeking reelection – on an otherwise challenging Senate map.
Once a crucial swing state in national elections, Florida has shifted sharply to the right in recent years, with Republicans now holding all statewide offices. However, Democrats hope that Scott's unpopularity, coupled with an abortion rights ballot initiative, could make the state more welcoming and improve their chances of retaining the Senate.
Republicans need to flip either two seats or one seat and win the White House to seize control of the chamber. They are virtually certain to flip one seat already – in deep-red West Virginia, where Sen. Joe Manchin is retiring. Democrats, on the other hand, are defending more than half a dozen seats in red or battleground states.
Scott has won three statewide elections in Florida – two races for governor and one for Senate – all by razor-thin margins. In 2018, he overthrew Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson by around 10,000 votes out of over 8 million votes cast. Scott is also a candidate in a three-way secret ballot contest to succeed Mitch McConnell as Senate GOP leader after the November elections.
By July 31, Scott outraised Mucarsel-Powell, a former congresswoman, mainly thanks to the $12.6 million the former healthcare executive lent his own campaign. One of the most prolific self-funders in Senate history, Scott has also spent more than $11 million on ads so far this cycle, while Mucarsel-Powell has spent considerably less – $2.1 million, almost all of it on digital platforms.
Mucarsel-Powell was the first Ecuadorian American and first South American immigrant elected to Congress when she flipped a Miami-area district in 2018. She narrowly lost reelection two years later before being invited to run for Senate last year.
Since joining the race, Mucarsel-Powell has criticized Scott over his past proposal to scrap federal programs, including Medicare and Social Security, after five years. Scott later revised his plans to include exemptions for those programs.
Democrats are expecting anger over Florida's six-week abortion ban, signed into law by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, to bolster their chances. Although the law includes exceptions for rape, incest, and the life and health of the pregnant woman, it prohibits the procedure in most cases before a woman is aware she is pregnant.
Florida is one of a few states where voters might approve a ballot initiative to protect abortion rights in the state constitution this fall.
Scott declared that he would've supported the state's six-week abortion ban if he was still in office as governor, and He's openly stated he'll cast a vote against the upcoming ballot initiative.
Scott has proactively addressed the Democratic backlash on reproductive rights matters. In a political advertisement, the senator brings up his family's personal experience with in vitro fertilization, a topic dividing the country in the abortion rights conversation.
"Numerous babies have entered this world due to IVF, in vitro fertilization. In fact, our youngest daughter is currently undergoing IVF treatments to grow her family. Both she and I share the viewpoint that IVF needs to be preserved for our family and every other family," Scott mentions in the commercial.
In the context of Florida's robust political landscape, Gaetz's potential future political ambitions in the state, such as running for governor in 2026, could face consequences due to ongoing feuds and investigations. Moreover, the ongoing ethics investigation into Gaetz, regarding allegations of sexual misconduct, has become a significant focus in political advertising during the primaries.
