Majority do not believe that Wagenknecht can establish herself
It has long been speculated whether Sahra Wagenknecht would leave the Left Party and form her own group. The time has now come in January. However, a majority would not vote for the new party - and do not trust the politician to do much else.
A majority of German citizens do not believe that the new party "Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht" can hold its own in the German party landscape in the long term. According to the RTL/ntv trend barometer, 54% expressed this view. Only just over a third of respondents (37%) believe that the party will establish itself. An above-average number of East Germans (48%) and AfD supporters (50%) are convinced that the "BSW" will remain a permanent fixture in the German party landscape. Only 29% of supporters of the Left Party believe this.
In addition, the majority of people in Germany doubt the political competence of former left-wing politician Sahra Wagenknecht. Around three quarters of respondents (72%) do not trust her to deal with the many problems in Germany. Only around a quarter of respondents (23%) believe she is competent enough to solve many of the current problems. East Germans (39%) and AfD supporters (49%), as well as supporters of the Left Party (43%), say this more frequently than average.
However, other parties fare even worse in the weekly RTL/ntv trend barometer. In the latest survey, when asked which party is most likely to solve Germany's problems, 15% named the CDU and CSU, 8% the SPD and 7% the Greens. The AfD was named by 8% and the FDP by 2%. The vast majority (57%) voted for no party. However, the question in the weekly survey is open-ended, whereas the current survey is only about the Wagenknecht party. The figures are therefore not directly comparable.
Majority would not vote for Wagenknecht
The vast majority of 75% of eligible voters would not vote for a party led by Wagenknecht, or would definitely not vote for it. According to the Trendbarometer, just three percent of eligible voters would "definitely" vote for the party. 18% could "maybe" see themselves voting for Wagenknecht.
Current supporters of the Left (13%) and supporters of one of the small splinter parties (17%) would "definitely" vote for a Wagenknecht party. "Maybe" 38% and 33% respectively would vote for this party. Of AfD supporters, 9 percent would "definitely" vote for the Wagenknecht party ("maybe": 35 percent), and 6 percent of East Germans ("maybe": 31 percent).
More than two weeks ago, Wagenknecht and nine other Left Party MPs declared their resignation from the party and announced a rival project. The new party is to be founded next January and will run in the European elections and several state elections in 2024.
Little knowledge about Wagenknecht's goals
The low level of support for the planned party could be due to a lack of knowledge about its goals. Just a quarter of Germans (24%) know what ideas and goals the "Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance" has on economic, social, foreign or climate protection policy. The vast majority (74%), on the other hand, do not know exactly. At 38%, supporters of the Left Party say they know the political ideas and goals of the new party. Among East and West Germans and supporters of other parties, this figure is between 22 and 29 percent.
Among other things, Wagenknecht wants to revive economic relations with Russia and obtain cheap gas from Russia again, as was the case before the invasion of Ukraine. Only a minority of citizens (26%) think this is a good idea. Significantly more citizens (69%) would not approve of such a rapprochement with Russia. Only the majority of East Germans (51%) and, above all, AfD supporters (73%) would approve of such a course towards Russia.
The opinion research institute Forsa surveyed 1001 people in Germany for the RTL/ntv trend barometer on November 7 and 8. The statistical margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.
Further information on Forsa here
Forsa surveys on behalf of RTL Germany
In light of these polls, it appears that a significant number of Germans do not trust Sahra Wagenknecht's abilities to effectively address the country's issues, with 72% expressing doubts. Moreover, the majority of potential voters, estimated at 75%, are unlikely to support a party led by Wagenknecht, according to the Trendbarometer.
Source: www.ntv.de
