Majorities in Thuringia and Saxony now solely dependent on BSW, excluding AfD.
In ten days, fresh state parliaments will be chosen in Saxony and Thuringia. Recent polls suggest complicated government formations in both states. In Dresden, the current coalition no longer holds a majority. In Erfurt, it could potentially result in a government majority after five years once again. The BSW plays a significant role.
Ten days prior to the Saxony state election, the CDU and AfD are neck and neck as per the ARD pre-election survey. The CDU, headed by Minister President Michael Kretschmer, would secure 31% and hold the title of the strongest force, just narrowly beating the AfD with lead candidate Jörg Urban at 30%. The Sahra Wagenknecht-led (BSW) alliance follows in third place with 14%, then the SPD with 7%, and the Greens with 6%. The Left would not be represented in the state parliament with 4%.
The other parties add up to 8% according to the survey, which includes the FDP and the Free Voters. All parties that reach at least 3% in the survey are listed individually as announced by the responsible WDR.
The current government coalition of CDU, SPD, and Greens would no longer hold a majority in the Saxony state parliament as per the survey. Kretschmer wants to continue without the Greens in the future. Cooperation with the AfD is rejected by the Saxon CDU, but an alliance with the BSW is not ruled out fundamentally. A coalition of CDU and BSW would have a narrow majority as per the new survey. However, such an alliance is a topic of controversy. CDU federal chairman Friedrich Merz initially rejected cooperation with the BSW, but later clarified that this only applies to the federal level.
43% of those surveyed in Saxony are satisfied or very satisfied with the work of the current state government, 53% are less or not satisfied. A majority of 58% in the ARD survey stated that the CDU should continue leading the state government in the future. 27% chose the AfD. The CDU could particularly benefit from its lead candidate. If the Minister President were to be elected directly, 58% would vote for Kretschmer, 20% for Urban.
For the representative survey, the opinion research institute Infratest dimap interviewed 1566 eligible voters in Saxony between Monday and Wednesday.
Thuringia: CDU and BSW with a narrow majority
In Thuringia, where a new state parliament will be elected in ten days, the AfD continues to lead. According to the state constitutional protection office, the AfD, classified as provenly right-wing extremist, would secure 30% if the election were held this Sunday. The CDU, led by lead candidate Mario Voigt, would garner 23%.
The Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW)-led alliance follows with 17%, as well as the Left, led by Minister President Bodo Ramelow, with 13%. The SPD would receive 7%. The Greens, currently governing with the Left and SPD in a minority coalition, would miss out on entering the state parliament with 3%. The FDP would also not be present in parliament.
Coalition formation post-election is likely to be challenging according to poll results. Cooperation with the AfD is rejected by all other parties, with the CDU also rejecting alliances with the Left and Greens. The only majority option would be a coalition of CDU, BSW, and SPD. However, alliances with the BSW are also contentious within the CDU. Voigt expressed openness to discussions.
The survey by Infratest dimap for ARD involved 1551 eligible voters in Thuringia between Monday and Wednesday.
Saxony, similar to Thuringia, will elect a new state parliament next Sunday, with Brandenburg following on September 22.
In Saxony, a potential coalition between the CDU and BSW could secure a narrow majority, as suggested by the new survey, despite initial reservations from CDU leader Friedrich Merz at the federal level. The BSW, led by Sahra Wagenknecht, is expected to gain 14% in the Saxony state election.
In Thuringia, the BSW, with Sahra Wagenknecht at the helm, is projected to secure 17% in the upcoming state election, making alliances with the BSW a topic of controversy for the CDU and other parties, including their lead candidate Mario Voigt.
