Maduro threatens civil war, if he loses
2019 it was almost here: Guaido declared victory. But Maduro didn't acknowledge it, the military intervened. Once again, polls show another candidate leading. And Maduro? He's threatening civil war.
With his prominent mustache and a victorious smirk, Nicolás Maduro gazes at the voter from the ballot. Venezuela's authoritarian president is at the top of the list because he was nominated by several parties - not just once, but 13 times. His main challenger, however, is only visible three times.
And yet, former diplomat Edmundo González Urrutia from the Unitary Democratic Platform opposition alliance is given good chances by the polls. He could unseat Maduro from the Presidential Palace on this Sunday, after eleven years in power. The polls, which predict a clear victory for the challenger, should be taken with caution. However, many observers believe that the chances for a political change in Caracas are as high as they have been in a long time.
Perhaps the chances are even greater than in 2019, when the opposition politician Juan Guaidó declared himself interim president and was recognized by many countries. At that time, the military stood behind Maduro. The crisis was simply weathered by Maduro, and Guaidó lost support. Now, the opposition is united, and even loyal government supporters are disillusioned due to the catastrophic economic situation of Maduro.
Venezuela, with the world's largest known oil reserves, is mired in a severe economic crisis due to corruption, mismanagement, and international sanctions. Over 80% of the population lives below the poverty line. Power outages are frequent. Gas, medicines, and gasoline are in short supply. More than seven million people - a quarter of the population - have left Venezuela in the past ten years due to poverty and violence.
The leftist government is harsh against dissenters. Numerous opposition figures have been arrested or excluded from public offices. The International Criminal Court in The Hague is investigating crimes against humanity in Venezuela.
Maduro recently warned of bloodshed and civil war if he is not re-elected. In this South American country, several criminal groups operate with connections to the government. "The risk that things could turn violent is quite high," says Latin America expert Günther Maihold from the Free University of Berlin. At least from Maduro's camp, however, there have been recently conciliatory tones: "If Edmundo wins, we will withdraw and become opposition," said his son Nicolás Maduro Guerra in an interview with the newspaper "El País".
Multiple Scenarios Possible
The Venezuelan elections are being closely watched in all of Latin America and the USA. The mass emigration from Venezuela is putting a strain on neighboring countries. If the sanctions against Venezuela are eased and the oil industry modernized, economic relations could revive. The regional security situation could also benefit. Currently, the Maduro government is providing shelter to Colombian rebels and recently made territorial claims to the neighboring country's Essequibo region, causing anxiety about war.
Observers do not expect a free and fair election in Venezuela. If opposition candidate González were to win, there are several scenarios possible, including the annulment of the election by the government. "Maduro could, for instance, organize a voting fraud that he then exposes himself," says the political scientist. It's also conceivable that the military intervenes and prevents a power transfer. A third scenario could be negotiations between the government and the opposition, for example, about amnesty for current government officials or a gradual power handover.
A radical turnaround in Venezuela is unlikely even with an opposition victory in January 2025. The parliament will still be dominated by the socialist ruling party PSUV after the new president's inauguration. Moreover, Maduro has filled all key positions in institutions, state enterprises, and media with loyalists. However, opposition politician Guaidó believes in a change. However, it is crucial that the armed forces "respect the expression of the people's will" and do not intervene, Guaidó told CNN.
In light of the upcoming elections, polls suggest that former diplomat Edmundo González Urrutia from the Unitary Democratic Platform opposition alliance has a strong chance of unseating President Nicolás Maduro, who has been in power for eleven years and has been nominated by several parties thirteen times. Despite these predictions, Maduro has threatened civil war if he is not re-elected, a sentiment echoed by Latin America expert Günther Maihold, who warns of a high risk of violence.
