Macron's second arch-enemy alongside Le Pen is now reaching for power

France's President Macron is spared from governing with Marine Le Pen's Right-wing party Rassemblement National (RN) in France. However, finding left-wing allies will be challenging. Macron faces opposition there as well. The most bitter opponent among them is the Left-populist Melenchon, who has already made demands.

The shock has been averted: The Right-wing populists of Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National (RN) have missed the absolute majority in the French Parliament – and by a wide margin. The surprising winner is the leftist alliance Nouveau Front Populaire (New Popular Front). According to projections, it is expected to win between 172 and 215 of the 577 seats in the National Assembly. Macron's camp Ensemble follows closely, with an estimated 150 to 180 potential deputies. The RN finishes in third place with 120 to 152 seats.

Macron can't breathe a sigh of relief yet. His goal of establishing clear majorities in the National Assembly has been missed. No faction has won the absolute majority. Macron is now left with few options. None of which he may truly favor.

Macron had always declared Le Pen his personal arch-enemy during the campaign. He even encouraged candidates from his own camp to withdraw in the second round to boost the chances of other democratic parties against Le Pen's candidates. However, in the leftist alliance, Macron also encounters bitter adversaries. His biggest adversary there: Jean-Luc Melenchon, founder of the left-populist party La France insoumise. Melenchon is not only unpopular with Macron but also among his political allies. Even parts of his own party sharply criticize Melenchon. During the campaign, Macron often labeled Le Pen's Right-wing populists and Melenchon's party in the same breath. Both should be kept out of the government, Macron emphasized.

"New Popular Front ready to govern"

Melenchon does not only criticize the European Union and NATO. He is also accused of harboring prejudices against Jews. This became apparent during the 2022 Presidential elections. Melenchon even alienated coalition partners with his anti-Semitic remarks.

Immediately after the announcement of the election results for the Leftist alliance, Melenchon made a claim for government participation. "The New Popular Front is ready to govern," Melenchon declared. Additionally, he demanded the resignation of Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, who resigned shortly thereafter. Whether Melenchon had his eye on Attal's position is still unknown. Members of the leftist electoral alliance include Melenchon's Left-populists, Greens, Social Democrats, and Communists. They refrained from nominating a common candidate for the presidency during the campaign.

Since Melenchon could not put himself forward for the position, pragmatic reasons may be at play. His unpopularity could have split the Leftist alliance. Macron also ruled out cooperation with Melenchon. If the New Popular Front intends to govern, it will likely have to look for a more moderate figurehead. However, even if a Green or Social Democrat becomes Prime Minister: Melenchon will continue to be a thorn in their side, at least as long as the alliance with other parties still exists. He made this clear once again with his demand for government formation. After all, he is the chairman of one of the parties that fared best in the alliance.

## A Coalition with the Left would be a Turning Point

If Macron were to form a government with the Left, Melenchon could boost Macron's pro-European course. Additionally, various Left parties in the National Assembly have repeatedly opposed Macron's pension reform, which they have now declared war on. They attracted voters with the promise of increasing social spending. However, Macron categorically rules this out due to France's high national debt. If there is a collaboration between the Left and Macron's Liberals, it would, in essence, be: alive. However, it is not excluded.

To drain the waters of Le Pen's right-wing populists, Macron has even considered forming a coalition with the Left. This would be a turning point. Unlike in Germany, a government coalition has never been formed in France. Therefore, the model for such a cooperation, which is becoming increasingly likely, is called a "cohabitation." This means that the President and the Prime Minister represent different political directions. This last occurred in 1997 when the center-right President Jacques Chirac dissolved parliament. He believed he could expand his majority, but instead lost unexpectedly to a left coalition led by the Socialist Lionel Jospin. Jospin served as Prime Minister for five years.

The Prime Minister is responsible for day-to-day business and domestic issues in a cohabitation. The President retains the decision-making power over foreign and defense policy. Macron's political maneuverability would be significantly limited. Additionally, he would not be able to resolve the stalemate between himself and the Prime Minister after the 2027 elections - the Constitution prohibits Macron from running for the presidency again.

France is Threatened by Political Standstill

Theoretically, Macron's resignation is also an option. However, he himself ruled this out even in the event that the RN obtains an absolute majority. There is little reason why Macron should change course now.

A final option remains, which would have disastrous consequences for France: The current government could remain in power as a caretaker government or an expert government could be appointed. Such a government, not democratically legitimized, could no longer bring comprehensive laws or reforms onto the agenda. France would then face political standstill. The election result is already decided, but France still trembles.

Despite Macron's efforts to prevent Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National from gaining power, Melenchon's Left-populist party in the New Popular Front emerged as the surprising winner in the French Parliament elections, posing a new challenge for Macron in French politics.
Melenchon, a bitter opponent of both Macron and Le Pen, declared that "The New Popular Front is ready to govern" after their election victory, demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Attal and setting the stage for potential partnerships or conflicts in the upcoming government formation.
After the election results, Macron is now faced with the daunting task of finding a way to govern effectively, potentially considering a coalition with the Left or the possibility of a caretaker government, with potential consequences such as political standstill for France.