Parliamentary election - Macron's power poker fails: chaos and a shift to the right loom
He wanted to go far with risky parliamentary elections, but now France's President Emmanuel Macron is likely to experience a deep fall. Not only did his camp have to lose the relative majority in the National Assembly and become the third strongest force. He, who wants to be remembered in history as a pioneer of the Right-wing Nationalists, could actually hand over the keys of power to the first Right-wing government in decades through his poker play.
Regardless of how exactly the decisive round of voting on the next Sunday goes: The ruler in the Élysée Palace, who until now preferred to hold all the reins himself, will have to share his power. Either with Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National (RN), which triumphed in the first round, or with the second-placed new Left-wing Front Populaire - it depends on two factors that Macron has little influence over: the strategic positioning of the parties and the voting behavior.
Wall against the right planned
Only 76 of the 577 seats of the National Assembly were given out in the first round. The rest follows in the runoff elections. Those who received at least 12.5 percent of the registered voters' votes in their constituency are participating.
The big question: Do all parties beyond the extreme right in all constituencies really understand each other in all constituencies with three potential candidates for the runoff election, to withdraw their third-placed candidates and give a recommendation for the second strongest challenger of the RN candidate? On election night, the Left-wing Front and Macron's Center-Left coalition announced the construction of such a wall against the advance of the extreme right.
The behavior of the deeply divided conservative Républicains, who are wavering between an alliance with Le Pen and a clear stance against the Far-right, remains to be seen. The practice of tactical alliances for the second round has a tradition in France with its majority electoral system. To what extent it can now curb the high approval ratings for the Far-right remains to be seen.
Macron's strategy failed
Nothing indicates that, after the record result for the RN in the first round, the approval for the Right-wing Populists is waning. According to an Ipsos Institute survey, 74 percent of voters in France are dissatisfied with Macron. And his strategy, which involved discrediting the parties to his left and right of his Center-Left coalition as unelectable or their allies, clearly did not work.
The Liberal Macron and his supposedly much smaller parliamentary group starting from next Sunday face an enormous challenge. Even if it manages to prevent the Far-right from grabbing power in coalition with the Left-wing Front, the two camps with previously mostly conflicting visions will have to gather ideas for a government program. With the rejection of the Far-right as a common denominator, this could lead to political chaos and stagnation.
The EU warns of austerity measures instead of additional billion-dollar expenditures
The high debt of France offers little room for costly new future visions when looked at realistically. Two weeks ago, the EU Commission even initiated a deficit procedure against France due to excessive new borrowing. Instead of additional expenditures in the magnitude of dozens of billions of euros, which the Left-wing camp was campaigning for, France should actually be cutting costs, something Macron had not been willing to do so far.
Young Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, whom Macron placed great hopes on at the beginning of the year, may not be able to remain in office in future power configurations, it seems clear. But if Macron could name a new Premier, a surprising coup of a great coalition against the right could succeed. The Left Front, which includes Greens, Communists, Socialists, and the Left Party, itself did not go into the early parliamentary elections with a leading candidate - and there is no favorite. However, it is certain that the future Premier, given the changing power relations, will have more influence. On the contrary, Macron will lose power.
Right-wing government fright for Berlin and Brussels
From the perspective of many on the left, a RN government would be even more of a nightmare for Berlin and Brussels than a blocked France. Not only do the Right-wing Nationalists have little left for Germany as a close partner, but they also want to significantly reduce Brussels' influence. Instead of Macron's strategy of not excluding too little in defense of Ukraine against the Russian aggressor, the party sets clear boundaries, for example, in weapons deliveries.
Ultimately, Macron bears the responsibility for these perspectives, which France is heading towards and are perceived by some as ominous. He was the one who initiated the new elections, whether out of naivety or overestimation of himself. His maneuvers for more power have failed. A right-wing shift and a power shift are certain for France. Regardless of how the runoff elections turn out, it is established: This time, the impulsive strategist Macron has outmaneuvered himself.
- Despite his ambition for risky parliamentary elections, President Emmanuel Macron is now facing a significant decline, potentially handing over power to the first Right-wing government in decades due to the success of Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National in the Parliamentary election.
- The decisive round of voting for the National Assembly's remaining seats will take place on the following Sunday, with Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National leading in the first round.
- The Left-wing Front Populaire, led by a new alliance, and Macron's Center-Left coalition are the two main contenders for the second round, aiming to build a wall against the advance of the extreme right.
- If the conservative Républicains align with Le Pen, the Far-right could gain significant power, posing a threat to both Berlin and Brussels, as a Right-wing government would reject the influence of the EU and significantly reduce cooperation with Germany.
- With the Liberal Macron and his Center-Left coalition facing a significant challenge, the upcoming power poker could lead to political chaos and stagnation, as conflicting visions between the two camps may hinder a collaborative government program.
- The EU has warned against austerity measures and excessive borrowing, advocating for cost-cutting instead of billion-dollar expenditures, which the Left-wing camp had previously campaigned in favor of.
- Young Prime Minister Gabriel Attal may not remain in office in future power configurations, while the likely future Premier, with a more influential position in the changing power dynamics, will have to navigate a shambles in French politics following the shift towards the right.
- The result of the runoff elections will confirm a significant right-wing shift in France, with Macron being outmaneuvered in his attempt to obtain more power, leading to a power shift that will impact France's relationship with both Berlin and Brussels.
