France: A Look at the Country's Culture and Heritage in a New Light - Macron's daring move: holding a new election to offset the drift towards the right?
After the resounding success of the right-wing Nationalist group in the European elections in France, President Emmanuel Macron is looking to halt the progress of Marine Le Pen's forces with a bold move. In the coming weeks, the French will elect a new National Assembly. Macron, who could potentially lose his position in the vote, wants to increase his center-right alliance's majority to ease his way through the remainder of his term. "We are coming to win," it was said from Macron's team. But how?
The government has been under pressure for quite some time now. In the National Assembly, Macron's camp has struggled to push through its plans due to the frequent confrontation and conflict culture in the chamber. They have also been dealing with a brewing vote of no-confidence in the government. The crushing defeat in the European elections, with Macron and his allies only managing to garner less than half the votes that the right-wing National Rally (RN) secured, has significantly exacerbated the pressure on the president. Now he's taking action.
Macron is gambling on clarity and is stating that he wants to increase his relative majority. But the question is, with whom? It remains unclear who Macron aims to team up with. The head of Macron's party, Renaissance, Stephane Sejourne, has already extended an olive branch: We will not field candidates in any seats where there are currently MPs from Republican fields who are committed to a clear project for France in the parliament. Reports suggest that this applies to all parties except RN and the leftist party La France Insoumise.
The Republicans, who had been on the decline for years in terms of political survival, rejected cooperation with Macron on Sunday evening. The Greens and Socialists strongly criticized the president's decision to dissolve the parliament. It is possible that Macron's surprise move could benefit him, as the leftist camp will have to sort itself out internally.
If Macron assumed he would surprise the right-wingers, he miscalculated. It has been reported that plans for parliamentary dissolution and advance elections with a candidate list are already in progress. Le Pen appeared self-assured and prepared to take control on Sunday evening.
Fears of implosion
There is great concern in some parts of France that Macron's gambit could backfire. The National Right, which Le Pen has made electable in over 90% of French municipalities through years of demonization tactics, won the most votes in over 90% of French municipalities in the European elections. If the right-wingers were to achieve an absolute majority in the National Assembly, Macron would, in effect, be forced to appoint one of them as prime minister.
There is a significant possibility that RN could gain the majority in these elections. Surveys from December, during the heated debate about the immigration law, suggest that there's been an increase in support for RN, possibly even a majority. While the outcome is uncertain, history shows that Macron's strategy is risky.
When President Jacques Chirac dissolved the National Assembly in 1997, his party lost its absolute majority in the subsequent election, with the Socialists taking control. Despite this, Macron's team refuses to consider appointing a prime minister from another party. "The President doesn't follow that logic." There is a majority for parties that don't share the values of the extremists. It is clear that Macron wants to describe the parliamentary election as a joint fight against the right.
Consequences for Germany and Europe
If Macron's gambit doesn't pay off, it would be disastrous for Germany and Europe. Macron would lose a significant amount of power, making it more difficult for him to push through his foreign policy agenda. A compromise between pro-European Macron and Eurosceptic RN leader Jordan Bardella, who also wants to distance himself from Germany, is difficult to imagine. Internally, France could plunge into a chaotic situation, where it would no longer be a reliable partner on the international stage.
If Macron manages to create more solid majority relationships, this could also benefit his international partners. The president would no longer have to spend so much time and energy fighting fires at home. However, it's assured that Macron and Foreign Minister Sejourne, orchestrating the presidential party's election campaign, will have to meet with their international partners in the coming four weeks. Partners should expect Macron in campaign mode and focused on domestic affairs at the G7 summit in Italy.
Macron and his party consistently claim that the president is not personally invested in the approaching parliamentary election, as he's barred from running for a third term in the 2027 presidential election. But it's not that straightforward. Macron is determined to avoid a right-wing successor at all costs. Otherwise, his political journey would be considered a failure if a right-wing leader such as Le Pen came to power, continuing his agenda.
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- The right-wing nationalists in Germany, observing the shift to the right in France, are seeing an opportunity to gain more influence in European politics.
- During a recent visit to Paris, right-wing leader Stéphane Séjourné of the Rassemblement National discussed potential alliances with French parties, expressing support for Emmanuel Macron's centrist agenda.
- Meanwhile, Marine Le Pen of the RN is gaining popularity, suggesting that the French are becoming more receptive to European integration criticisms.
- In response to this trend, French political analysts are closely watching developments in Germany, as a right-wing government there could further bolster the rise of radical nationalist forces across Europe.
- The French Parliament, following the parliamentary election, will consider implementing stricter immigration policies and strengthening ties with the United Kingdom after Brexit, as per the ambitions of the right-wing nationalists.
- As France heads towards these elections, fears of a right-wing nationalist takeover in Europe are being voiced by opposition parties and international leaders alike.
- Germany, being a key EU member, is concerned about the potential impact of a right-wing nationalist government in France on the future of the EU, particularly in regards to the bloc's stance on migration and its relationship with neighboring countries.
- The Left, a prominent political party in France, is advocating for stronger European unity in the face of increasing right-wing nationalism, aiming to bolster support for a more inclusive and progressive Europe.
