Macron seeks advantages, regardless of Le Pen's election victory.
Following their triumph in the European elections, the National Rally (RN) party led by Le Pen has a strong chance to influence France's upcoming election. Macron is fully aware of this. However, even if the Right-wing populists claim victory, Macron's cunning strategy might backfire.
Macron's clear objective is to ensure that his successor in the Elysée Palace doesn't hail from the RN ranks. Yet, there's a possibility that the RN could capture a relative majority in the National Assembly through the elections Macron initiated. In such a scenario, Macron would need to appoint a Right-wing populist as prime minister, he stated. Macron's strategy is tactical but risky.
In a private conversation with the media at a CDU federal executive committee meeting in Berlin, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen allegedly revealed that Macron had promised to maintain control and "disillusion" the RN, should they win the election. Macron is hopeful that the Right-wing populists will tarnish their image and deter voters. As per the polls, the RN isn't far from securing the election. In the European elections, the party garnered 31% of the votes and 30 seats in the European Parliament - double the number achieved by the Europe Ecology – The Greens alliance associated with Macron's party Renaissance.
The most well-known figure of the RN is Marine Le Pen, the stripper and daughter of the party's founding father Jean-Marie Le Pen, who established the party in 1972. She handed over the official leadership of the party to the 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, who aims to assume the premiership if the Right-wing populists emerge victorious. Cooperation between Macron and Bardella appears challenging. Bardella would be in charge of daily affairs and domestic policy, while Macron would retain control over foreign and defense policy. Macron's supporters fear that he might end up as a "lame duck" - politically powerless due to the electoral defeat.
Macron is playing his "Vabanque" – all or nothing. This is typical of him. Often, his self-confidence veers towards arrogance. Similarly, intelligence is often coupled with arrogance when speaking of Macron. Those who have listened to Macron praise his eloquence. Moreover, his political style is known for surprising effects.
It's uncertain whether the National Assembly was genuinely surprised by the announcement of its dissolution. Some of Macron's supporters felt caught off guard. However, Macron has been striving for political effectiveness in the National Assembly for close to two years. His governing coalition, which includes Renaissance, the Liberals of the Mouvement Démocrate, and the Center-Right party Horizons, has been the strongest faction with 245 MPs. Yet, he lacked an absolute majority. Facing the confrontational atmosphere in the chamber, Macron could only assert himself with difficulty, often resorting to issuing decrees.
The RN as the second largest opposition party behind the leftist NUPES continues to criticize Macron's legislative proposals. Calls for a dissolution of the National Assembly came from various political quarters. This is one of the potential benefits of Macron's strategy: He can accuse his critics of only fulfilling their desires.
Chaos among Conservatives
If Macron had indeed speculated that he could neutralize his political opponents through the swiftly scheduled elections on June 30 and July 7, he was mistaken. The Left promptly formed an alliance, the Popular Front, which has challenged Macron's pension reform. Macron refuses political collaboration with this alliance: aside from moderate Social Democrats and Greens, he counts the Left-populists of La France insoumise among them.
However, in the right-wing camp, Macron's declaration of elections caused uproar. He lost potential political allies. First, the party leader of Renaissance, Stéphane Sejourné, extended an olive branch: They would not run candidates against current MPs from the Republican camp who wish to champion a clear mission for France in the parliament. Sejourné primarily aimed his offer at the Republicans. Yet, they rejected cooperation instantly.
Shortly thereafter, chaos erupted among the Republicans when their chairman, Éric Ciotti, announced that they would collaborate with the RN on the candidate selection for the constituencies. This move broke a taboo for many members of a party that considers itself in the Gaullist tradition and has erected a clear wall to the right, similar to the German sister party CDU.
RN plans to field joint candidates with Republicans
Ciotti was expelled from the party. He attempted to resist and appealed. After his expulsion, Ciotti apparently did not distance himself from his plans to collaborate with the RN. In an interview with the French television channel BMF-TV, Bardella claimed, "in 70 constituencies" there would be common candidates of the Republicans and the RN.
If parts of the Conservatives were to actually collaborate with the RN, this would weaken Macron's position. The Republicans would not merely aid the amateurishly organized right-wing populists with the candidate selection and campaign organization, but they would also contribute to further discrediting and legitimizing the RN. This blunder, in turn, could also be used against Macron at a later date. After all, he must work with Bardella if the RN wins the election. Ultimately, Macron may not disillusion the right-wing populists, but rather himself. No one knows, after all, whether the electorate would be displeased with a Prime Minister Bardella.
Read also:
In the aftermath of their victory in the European elections, Marine Le Pen, the daughter of Rassemblement National's founding father Jean-Marine Le Pen, leads the party with a strong chance to impact France's upcoming elections. Emmanuel Macron, despite the RN's potential influence, remains determined to ensure his successor is not from the RN ranks.
Despite internal chaos within the Conservative party, some Republican leaders, like Éric Ciotti, have proposed collaborating with the RN for joint candidate selection in certain constituencies, which, if successful, could further weaken Macron's position.
