Elections in France - Macron and the left join forces against right-wing victory
After the success of the Rassemblement National (RN) in the first round of the French parliamentary elections, a right-wing national government seems more likely than ever. According to predictions, Marine Le Pen's RN could be the strongest force in the National Assembly on the coming Sunday. The right-wing nationalists even dream of an absolute majority. President Emmanuel Macron and the left are determined to prevent a right-wing government at any cost and are ready for a coalition beyond party lines.
Possible new "Brand Wall" against the Right
Although the RN finished significantly ahead in the first round on Sunday, it is still undecided how many seats the right-wing populists will secure in the National Assembly. Only 76 French deputies were elected in the first round, among them the RN's leading figure Marine Le Pen. All other seats will be distributed in second-round elections on July 7.
Due to the high voter turnout of 66.71% and the strong concentration on the three political blocs, unusual numbers of candidates qualified for the second round in many constituencies. French media reported on Monday about over 300 potential run-offs.
To prevent each other from losing votes and helping the RN win locally, it was announced from Macron's party and the left that they would withdraw in favor of the candidates who can beat the RN in every constituency where they finished third. The parties hope that the so-called "Brand Wall" against the Right will halt Le Pen's advance again.
Workers vote for the Right, Seniors for Macron
RN and its allies obtained 33.15% of the votes according to the preliminary results. The left-wing alliance came in second place with 27.99%, while Macron's camp obtained 20.04%. The bourgeois right received 10.23% of the votes.
The voter turnout was significantly higher than before at 66.71%. None of the camps benefited from this more than others. While the majority system made it harder for the RN to win earlier, this is no longer the case due to the increased support for the party and its stronger local roots.
The far-right party performed particularly well among its core voter base of workers and people without higher education. However, they also gained more votes elsewhere, such as among people under 35 years old.
The center-ground of French President Macron received votes mainly from seniors and financially better-off individuals. The new left-wing coalition Nouveau Front Populaire was voted for mainly by youth, city dwellers, and people with higher education.
Election outcome has far-reaching consequences
A victory for the RN in the second-round elections would have significant consequences. If the party obtains an absolute majority, Macron would in fact be forced to appoint a premier from their ranks. The lower house can bring down the government. Macron's power would significantly shrink.
For Germany and Europe, this would mean that France would become less reliable. Although Macron, as President, holds the upper hand in foreign policy, with the right-wing party leader Jordan Bardella as Prime Minister, he would hardly be able to continue his line unhindered. The RN is reluctant to cooperate closely with Berlin and critical of Brussels.
If the common front truly prevents the Right's advance and none of the camps achieves an absolute majority, France would face harsh coalition negotiations. If no solution is found, political stalemate could loom over the country.
Monday: MontagTuesday: DienstagWednesday: MittwochThursday: DonnerstagFriday: FreitagSaturday: SamstagSunday: Sonntag
- Despite leading in the first round of the French parliamentary elections on Sunday, the exact number of seats the Rassemblement National (RN) will secure in the National Assembly remains uncertain.
- Marine Le Pen, the figurehead of the RN, was one of the 76 French deputies elected in the initial round.
- To circumvent helping the RN win locally, Macron's party and the left have agreed to withdraw support for candidates in constituencies where they finished third.
- The center-ground of French President Emmanuel Macron predominantly receives votes from seniors and financially well-off individuals.
- The second-round elections on July 7 will decide the final distribution of the remaining seats in the National Assembly.
- A victory for the RN in the second-round elections could result in Macron having to appoint a premier from their ranks, significantly reducing his power.
- The Paris-based Rassemblement National, led by Marine Le Pen, is a prominent right-wing nationalist party that aims for electoral success in the upcoming parliamentary election.
