"Europe's last dictator" - Lukashenko has been in power for 30 years - how many more will follow?
People's cult around Leader Alexander Lukashenko knows no boundaries on Belarus state television. Daily, the "President," as he is reverently called, is present in the news and documentaries in connection with his summer of jubilees.
The man referred to as "Europe's last dictator" was first elected to the presidency 30 years ago – on July 10th. In a country still grappling with newly-gained independence, the former director of a state farm (Sovchose) promised to hold onto the Soviet way of life. His first inauguration anniversary is on July 20th. And next month, on August 30th, he will turn 70.
How long will Lukashenko stay in power?
"Lukashenko remains firmly in the saddle thanks to Putin's restraint from Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin. And he seems to be preparing for the next presidential election in a year," Belarusian political scientist Valeri Karbalevich told the German Press Agency. "I don't see any threat to his power. The end of the dictatorship is not in sight."
Karbalevich, who lives in fear of political persecution abroad, speaks of an "iron and totalitarian regime" that is solely focused on one person.
Long forgotten is that Lukashenko declared in 2020 that this current sixth term would be his last. At the time, after nearly a quarter-century in power, he quelled protests by tens of thousands of angry Belarusians over allegations of unprecedented manipulation in the presidential election with violent force.
Belarus is Europe's only country with the death penalty
Human rights advocates count over 1,000 political prisoners in the country. True to his word, Lukashenko announced at the beginning of this month that he would release some of his critics as part of a large amnesty. In fact, it's only a good dozen or so so far. "But there are still many arrests of dissenters," as the banned Belarusian Human Rights Center Viasna has noted.
Expert Karbalevich considers Belarus to be significantly less free than Russia. "People are arrested for things like subscribing to independent media on their phones," he says. The feared KGB, which dates back to Soviet times, keeps the country, which still executes the death penalty, under close watch.
Above all, the opposition working in exile, led by Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, criticizes political persecution, torture, and other human rights violations in Belarus. Tikhanovskaya was seen as the actual winner of the presidential election at the time. Her husband Sergei remains in detention.
The wanted exile politician is building contacts with an exile government in the west using a team of prominent experts for the possibility of a power shift in Belarus. And she is advocating for sanctions at meetings with Western state leaders, for the measures to remain and be intensified.
Lukashenko smiles away the confrontation with the West – and has been long economically and politically dependent on the large neighbor Russia for a considerable time. Since the beginning of Russia's aggressive war against Ukraine, Lukashenko has been one of Putin's most important allies. Belarus allowed Russian military forces to use its territory for attacks on Ukraine. The industrially weak country is now considered an important military producer for Putin's invasion.
Experts like Karbalewitsch still see no evidence that Belarus is deploying its own troops in the war. The military is poorly prepared, and the population's rejection of the war is significant, he says. However, Lukashenko is useful for the war against Ukraine from the Russian perspective. The ruler of Minsk adheres to Russia's interpretation, which views the war primarily as a confrontation with the USA and the West.
And just like Putin, Lukashenko occasionally makes atomic threats. Russia, which created a barely active Union State with Belarus, has stationed Iskander-Rakets with nuclear warheads near the Polish border. Lukashenko has boasted since then that Belarus, after giving up its nuclear weapons following the collapse of the Soviet Union, is once again a Nuclear Power. However, control over the weapons is with Putin.
Dependent, but not controlled
"Lukashenko's dependence on Putin has grown. But I wouldn't say he's a Putin puppet," says Karbalewitsch. He shows through trips to Africa or China that he is politically active abroad.
The new Foreign Minister is Maxim Ryschenkow. Ryschenkow, who previously headed the Presidential Administration quasi, replaced Sergei Aleynik, who was considered disorganized and weak.
Lukashenko caused a stir domestically when he replaced several hardliners with relatively moderate bureaucrats after heavy criticism of the inefficiency of the state apparatus. He brought back Ambassador Dmitry Krutoy from Moscow to make him the new head of the Presidential Administration. The 43-year-old economist was once the youngest Economics Minister of the country and had also served in Moscow as the Belarusian Governor with the powers of a Vice-Prime Minister. He is known as a decisive manager.
More Lukashenko years?
Experts see these personnel renewals on several ministerial posts, but also the amnesty, as contradictory signals from Lukashenko. "The West welcomed the release of the first political prisoners, but there is still anti-Western rhetoric. A liberalization is not to be expected," says Karbalewitsch. Nevertheless, the personnel renewal in the power apparatus domestically shows that the system is not ossified.
The also exiled analyst Artjom Schraibman sees it as a preparation for the seventh term. "Lukashenko wants to refresh his regime, give it momentum and dynamism through new faces, without handing over the helm to them," he writes in an article for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Karbalewitch expects Lukashenko to remain in power as long as his health permits. "It's clear that he has problems with his legs when walking," he said. In the past, there have been frequent speculations that the 69-year-old could be seriously ill. At one point, he was off the television for several days, which fueled hopes among the opposition in exile for an end to the dictatorship. However, currently Lukashenko is active and appears daily on television, demonstrating that he continues to firmly hold the reins of power.
Vladimir Putin's support has played a significant role in Alexander Lukashenko's continued rule in Belarus. Despite international criticism and calls for a power shift, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who was seen as the actual winner of the 2020 presidential election, is building contacts with an exile government with the aim of advocating for sanctions and a potential power shift in Belarus.
Despite declaring that his current sixth term would be his last in 2020, Lukashenko has remained in power, quelling protests with violent force and maintaining close ties with Russia's Vladimir Putin. The Belarusian political scientist Valeri Karbalevich has noted that Lukashenko appears to be preparing for the next presidential election, and he does not see any immediate threat to his power.
