"Lindner doesn't know where to get the money"
For the traffic light coalition, it means after the budget agreement on Friday: breathe a sigh of relief. But the opposition is not impressed by the new plans - to put it mildly. CDU budget expert Middelberg sees above all the fundamental conflict of the coalition not resolved.
ntv.de: Mr. Middelberg, the traffic light has once again managed to reach a deal on a budget. How do you feel about it? Thumbs up or thumbs down?
Mathias Middelberg: That was a typical sham agreement. Just like we have often experienced from the traffic light. They focused on the needs of their partners rather than those of the state. They only agreed on key points. As soon as these are now poured into concrete legislative proposals, the conflict in the traffic light coalition will erupt again.
Why? When Chancellor Scholz, Finance Minister Lindner, and Economics Minister Habeck presented the result, they seemed quite optimistic. The message was: We've made it.
For me, that looked quite strained. The question of adhering to the debt brake was not even addressed. SPD fraction leader Mützenich made that clear on the day of the agreement. Already, some traffic light politicians are questioning points from the growth initiative. Among the Greens, some say the tax adjustment to inflation is not feasible. That's about 23 billion euros over several years.
You seemed to like the complications with citizens' income.
It's true, sanctions, reporting requirements, and rules on affordability and solvency should be tightened. I'm curious, however, if the coalition factions will actually pass this in the Bundestag.
Do you have doubts?
Yes. The crucial thing is to motivate citizens' income recipients to take up work. For that, the entire package must come in its entirety. I don't trust the traffic light coalition with that. Regarding the decisive point - the wage gap between the net income of the low-wage earner and the height of citizens' income - the traffic light coalition actually does nothing. So it will become harder to bring more citizens' income recipients into work.
Lindner said they had understood a new common basis for government action.
I see it differently. They're just trying to fill in the trenches between SPD and Greens on one side and FDP on the other with money. They are emptying out the debt brake completely. In the two years, they will mobilize almost 100 billion euros in new debt. In addition, there are all sorts of accounting tricks. The debt service is recalculated and stretched over several years. That saves four billion euros per year. They shift budget reserves from one budget to the next. They leave the 30-billion-euro gap in the Bundeswehr wide open. In addition, there's the global under-expenditure of 16 billion euros. All these "creative accounting tricks" - SPD fraction leader Mützenich rightly called them that - are mobilized to finally be able to say: We have agreed.
What's hidden behind the "global under-expenditure"?
It's a nice name for money we don't have. If you order 50 euros worth of food in a restaurant but only have 34 euros in your pocket, you have a global under-expenditure of 16 euros.
The number 16 fits, as the global budget deficit in the household amounts to 16 billion Euro. How does that fit together, to say: We have agreed, but we still lack 16 billion Euro?
That doesn't make sense at all. Christian Lindner doesn't know where to get the money from. Half of this hole is supposed to be closed through the highway agency and the railway. They are allowed to borrow eight billion Euro outside the debt brake. But where does the other eight billion come from? That's completely open. He just hopes that the ministries will not fully spend their budgets - a simple hopeful value. But, and that's the scary part, there is no real saving in the budget anywhere. . The turning point is not happening, not in defense, but also not in other areas. No re-prioritization. Instead, the outdated junk from the coalition agreement is being financed further.
Must the global budget deficit be eliminated if the budget becomes law?
No. There have been global budget deficits many times before. But that we have planned such a huge deficit of 16 billion Euro, I don't know about that.
The cabinet is supposed to decide on the legislative draft on July 17, and from the beginning of September, the Bundestag will negotiate on the budget law. Is it only about small things now?
In the Bundestag, it will still be about the big picture. If the so-called growth initiative is cut again, then the expected growth of 0.5 percent will not occur. The measures regarding citizens' income, the tax relief for companies, and the inflation adjustment for the working population are indeed correct. But if all this is not fully implemented, then nothing will happen to the growth and tax revenues will continue to decline. The likelihood, however, that the traffic light factions - as before - will quarrel about everything, is high.
When they say our measures bring 0.5 percent more economic growth - is that more than just a hope?
That's just a principle of hope. It could also be different if certain, positively assumed effects do not materialize in practice. Growth has always been weaker than forecasted when this traffic light was in power.
The defense budget is growing, but only by about a billion. That's something like an inflation adjustment. But after 2028, it is supposed to increase dramatically.
That's the next billion-dollar hole. A huge gap is coming towards us. In 2028, we will have to allocate 80 billion Euro to the defense budget, as the Chancellor himself has said. Currently, it is 53 billion. Where the missing 27 billion are supposed to come from, is written in the stars. This government acts according to the motto: After us, the deluge.
Scholz said on Friday: I am campaigning for "this need for action." What does that mean?
That means: The next government must solve this problem. That's the point. This coalition is not capable of understanding savings.
Where would the Union save?
We see the greatest savings opportunities with Citizen's Money. This now amounts to around 50 billion Euro, more than every tenth Euro from the Federal Budget. We need to bring more people from Citizen's Money into employment. In terms of asylum and the fight against causes of asylum seekers, we see potential. With a strict limitation of asylum immigration, a lot of money could be saved. Point three are the federal programs of the Federal Government. There are over 400 of them. Some, like "Living Democracy," are particularly inefficient and should be abolished. However, these issues are not even being addressed by the Coalition. The Greens do not want to limit asylum immigration, and the SPD does not really want to tackle Citizen's Money.
They have also suggested scrapping the Digital Pact School. Are you going to try and get that into the budget in the Bundestag?
No. With the term "Digital Pact School," it wasn't about reducing investments in education or short-term savings. But we need to critically reconsider the division of tasks between the Federal Government and the States. The States now have higher tax shares than the Federal Government. It used to be the other way around. At the same time, there is constant talk of financial injections from the Federal Government in areas where the Federal Government does not even have jurisdiction. Both parties need to come to a fundamental understanding on this.
New elections are off the table for now. But if the Union is the strongest force after the next Bundestag election, with whom would you rather negotiate a coalition, if not with the Greens or SPD?
We need a real turnaround, a genuine shift in this country. We need to clearly communicate this to the people. We need more growth and less bureaucracy. We need to realign the welfare state. I believe that for a "Germany is back on track" program, many people can be won over. . And the message must be: For that, a strong CDU is needed. With whom we then cooperate, will depend on it.
Interview with Mathias Middelberg, Volker Petersen spoke
- Despite the relief felt in the traffic light coalition after the budget agreement, CDU budget expert Middelberg expresses skepticism, stating that the fundamental conflicts within the coalition have not been resolved.
- In his critique of the budget agreement, Middelberg mentions the issue of the traffic light coalition not addressing the question of adhering to the debt brake, which is a major concern for the CDU.
