- Lebanon and Iran threaten Israel <unk> Escalation a matter of time?
Israel and Iran are stoking fears of a larger war in the Middle East with their latest threats, with consequences far beyond the region. The seven major Western industrial nations (G7) are strongly urging de-escalation, but the fronts between the hostile leaderships in Tehran and Jerusalem seem hardened.
In light of an announced Iranian retaliatory strike, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu consulted with his military and intelligence chiefs. So far, there is "no definitive picture" of the expected attacks, reported Israeli TV channel 12. Other reports suggest that Iran could strike as early as Monday.
Iran and Hezbollah threaten Israel after deaths of functionaries
The most dangerous crisis in the Middle East region in decades was triggered by deadly attacks on two high-ranking targets of the Israeli security apparatus last week. In the early hours of Wednesday, an explosion in a guest house of the Iranian government in Tehran killed the foreign chief of the Islamic Hamas, Ismail Haniyah. A few hours earlier, an airstrike killed the high-ranking Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in the Lebanese capital Beirut.
Israel claimed responsibility for the attack on Shukr, but there have been no official statements of this kind from Jerusalem regarding the attack on Haniyah. Iran and the Hamas allied with it hold the Jewish state responsible in both cases.
The leadership in Tehran and the Shiite militia Hezbollah supported by it threatened Israel with massive retaliation for the attacks. Netanyahu's government warned of severe consequences in this case. A regional wildfire is feared if, as announced by Tehran, the militias allied with Iran in the region also participate. These include Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, as well as the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq and Syria.
International diplomats strive for de-escalation
According to a newspaper report, Arab diplomats are said to have appeared in Tehran and campaigned there for a reaction to the assassinations that is as restrained as possible. However, the Iranian leadership reportedly told the envoys that it is indifferent whether the planned retaliation strike triggers a war, according to the "Wall Street Journal" citing persons familiar with the contents of the discussions.
Iranian President Massoud Peseschkian received the Jordanian Foreign Minister Aiman al-Safadi and said in connection with the killing of Haniyah: "This cowardly act was a violation of all international laws and a big mistake by the Zionists (Israel), which will not go unanswered." His government wants peace and stability in the region, but the prerequisite for this is "an end to Israeli crimes, especially in Gaza," it was quoted from Peseschkian's office.
In a joint video conference, the G7 foreign ministers called on all parties to the conflict to exercise the utmost restraint to prevent further escalation. In the current situation, dialogue and restraint are needed, said Italy's Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani. His country currently holds the G7 presidency and organized the hastily convened conference of the group, which also includes Germany.
Unclear is when the threatened retaliatory strike could occur. In Tehran's and Hezbollah's statements, they have repeatedly referred to the "next few days". The news portal "Axios" reported, citing assessments by three American and Israeli government officials, that Iran could strike as early as Monday. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken reportedly told his G7 counterparts about this possibility, mentioning a timeframe of the next 24 to 48 hours.
U.S. President Joe Biden will hold a meeting with his security advisors on Monday to discuss the situation in the Middle East, with Vice President Kamala Harris also in attendance. Before that, Biden will speak with Jordan's King Abdullah II.
Israel can likely count on the support of the U.S. and probably other allies in intercepting Iranian and its proxy groups' rockets, missiles, and drones using modern defense systems.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with his Israeli counterpart Joav Galant on Sunday (local time) and assured him of "ironclad support" for self-defense, according to a Pentagon statement. They also discussed troop movements as a security measure. Austin also advocated for a ceasefire in the Gaza conflict and an agreement for the release of hostages remaining in the Gaza Strip.
Warning to Israeli citizens – Netanyahu signals readiness for combat
The Israeli military spokesperson, Daniel Hagari, said on Sunday evening that the Israeli civilian population should remain vigilant. "The defense is not foolproof," he stressed. The situation remains unchanged, but in case of need, people should quickly seek shelter and follow all instructions.
Overnight Monday, the Israeli military reported a nighttime attack from Lebanon with several suspicious aerial objects. However, it did not appear to be a large-scale attack. The air defense was deployed, and one of the objects was downed near the Kibbutz Ayelet Hashahar, injuring two soldiers lightly. In other parts of northern Israel, air raid sirens were false alarms – a common occurrence in recent days.
Prime Minister Netanyahu maintained his tough rhetoric on Sunday evening. "Iran and its clients are trying to encircle us with a ring of terrorism," he said at a memorial event for right-wing Zionist leader Zeev Jabotinsky (1880-1940). "We are ready to confront them on every front – near or far. Whoever tries to harm us will pay a heavy price."
Hostage negotiations at a standstill
The latest escalation is a result of the war Israel has been waging against Hamas in the Gaza Strip for nearly ten months. This war was triggered by the unprecedented massacre that Hamas and other groups' terrorists carried out in southern Israel on October 7 last year, killing 1,200 people and taking another 250 as hostages to the Gaza Strip.
Israel set out to dismantle Hamas as a military and political organization. However, countless Palestinian civilians in the Gaza Strip have also been killed, and a significant portion of the Strip's infrastructure has been destroyed. As the war drags on, Israel faces growing international criticism.
Indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas, aimed at achieving a ceasefire and the release of hostages, have been at an impasse for months. As the two sides do not engage in direct talks, the U.S., Egypt, and Qatar are facilitating the process. The latest round of discussions between an Israeli delegation and Egyptian mediators in Cairo over the weekend concluded without any progress, according to Israeli media reports.
Critics, and increasingly even Israel's ally the U.S., are blaming Prime Minister Netanyahu for the stalemate. He is accused of making new demands repeatedly, making an agreement unattainable.
In response to the threats from Iran and Hezbollah after the attacks on Israeli security targets, discussions between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his military and intelligence chiefs have been ongoing to prepare for potential retaliatory strikes. The situation in the Gaza Strip, which has been under tension due to Israel's ongoing conflict with Hamas, is a major concern, as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip are allied with Iran and could potentially participate in any retaliation.
