Le Pen faces election victory - but she still has to tremble
More than one third of the French want to give their vote to Le Pen's RN party. This is good news for the Right-wing populist, but not yet a reason to celebrate. President Macron still has opportunities to settle the score with them.
The RN is on the run. The French Right-wing populists have emerged as winners from the European elections. Now, a survey by the Ifop Fiducial Institute gives them good chances of securing the majority in the upcoming French election. The RN currently stands at 36%, significantly ahead of the leftist coalition Front Populaire with 29.5%, and the liberal camp around President Emmanuel Macron with 20.5%.
Marine Le Pen, the face of the RN, has appointed the 28-year-old Jordan Bardella as her successor less than two years ago. Bardella confirms in every interview that he wants to be the Prime Minister if the RN wins. However, the good survey results are not a guarantee for a future Prime Minister from the RN ranks.
The party must not only perform well in the first round of voting on the upcoming Sunday but also in the second round a week later. France uses a majority electoral system: A candidate can only secure a parliamentary seat in the first round if they receive more than half of the votes in their constituency. The second condition: At least a quarter of the registered voters in that constituency must vote for them. This rarely happens in the first round. Then, a week later, there is a runoff between the first and second-place finishers.
"It's particularly interesting what happens between the first and second rounds in France," says Ronja Kempin, a France expert at the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, ntv.de. "Then opportunities open up for new political alliances that could field common candidates against the RN in the constituencies." Coalitions of parties that have previously campaigned against each other are also possible. "For Macron's camp, the Republicans and the moderate left are the most likely partners," says Kempin. However, they might not be too enthusiastic about cooperating with Macron.
On the one hand, the leftist coalition Front Populaire is making headway against Macron's liberal politics, especially his pension reform. On the other hand, the conservative Republicans - the French sister party of the CDU - have broken apart. A part of the party is now working with the RN. The catalyst for this was Éric Ciotti, a former leader of the Republicans. In secret, he and the RN have identified dozens of constituencies where they plan to field joint candidates. The Republicans, who see themselves in the Gaullist tradition, expelled Ciotti from the party for this reason.
The majority of the Republicans - those who have not defected to the RN - could potentially align with Macron after the first round. However, this would come with significant risks. The party of former French presidents Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy is fighting for its political survival. In the polls, it hovers around the single digits. With the few dozen seats they could win, the Republicans would not be much help for Macron in his search for majorities. And they have already refused Macron's offer after the presidential election in 2022: At that time, they rejected his proposal to draft a coalition treaty.
Antisemitism could split the leftist coalition [Antisemitism could potentially split the leftist coalition]
On the left side of the political spectrum, the chances for a coalition with the liberal presidential camp are slightly better. Moderate social democrats and the Greens have formed an alliance, called Front Populaire in English: People's Front, with extreme groups like the France Unbowed's Left Populists. Macron could speculate that this alliance might break up before the second round of elections. This happened once before during the 2022 presidential elections, when the leader of La France Insoumise, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, alienated his coalition partners with antisemitic remarks, says Kempin.
If moderate left parties switch to Macron's camp and secure him a majority, one of their leading politicians could become Prime Minister. This is only possible if the RN fails to secure an absolute majority in the second round, emphasizes Kempin. "If the RN achieves an absolute majority, Macron cannot get around appointing Bardella as Prime Minister - otherwise he would completely ignore the will of the voters," says Kempin.
However, it's clear that a victory in the first round is not enough for Le Pen. Final clarity will only come a week later.
- Despite the RN's strong performance in the survey, Emmanuel Macron still has a chance to challenge them in politics, as he has opportunities to counter their advance.
- The conservative Republicans, traditionally aligned with the Gaullist philosophy, have faced internal struggles and some members have aligned with the RN, potentially complicating Macron's alliance-building efforts.
- If the leftist coalition, including moderate social democrats and the Greens, manages to stay united and switch to Macron's camp before the second round, a leading figure from their ranks could potentially become Prime Minister, provided the RN fails to secure an absolute majority.
