Kursk serves as both Ukraine's source of optimism and complex quandary.
Russia is making strides in the Kursk region, yet Ukraine's offensive within Russian territory remains their key expectation for success, while also presenting a conundrum.
Over two months following the unexpected attack on the Kursk region, the Ukrainian military continues to control the majority of its territories within Russia. Shortly after announcing the imminent eviction of Ukrainian forces, Russian President Vladimir Putin found this task more complex than anticipated.
In the beginning of August, Ukrainian troops surpassed assumptions and quickly pushed forward, capturing approximately 1,000 to 1,300 square kilometers of Russian land, equivalent in size to the Saarland. However, Russian forces have recently regained control of a few villages. Colonel Markus Reisner speculates, in an ntv interview, that Russia aims to surround and constrict this Ukrainian salient in Kursk utilizing a pincer maneuver.
Notwithstanding, there are currently no reports of significant accomplishments in Russian counterattacks. US officials anticipate this state of affairs will persist in the foreseeable future. Based on a Bloomberg report, senior Washington officials believe that Ukraine can keep hold of the seized territories in Kursk for several more months, if not longer. Ukrainian forces have yet to encounter major supply disruptions, and Russian counterattacks have been mild.
Bargaining Chip for Diplomacy?
The advance in Kursk provides Ukraine with an opportunity to engage in potential future negotiations. In August, President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that Kursk was an essential part of his strategy for victory. The Ukrainian leader fears that the conflict will solidify in Russia's favor if left unchecked, allowing Moscow to retain captured territories within Ukraine. Kursk serves as a check against this.
Nevertheless, seizing Russian territory alone is not sufficient to sway the tide in Ukraine's favor, states political scientist Thomas Jäger. He reasons that the objective was to demonstrate to supporters that Russia could be pressured and possibly persuaded to participate in negotiations. However, Jäger emphasizes that it was not anticipated that Ukraine would be able to remain on Russian soil for this length of time. Alone, Kursk does not have the power to alter the situation in Kyiv's advantage.
"Less Devastating Than Russia's Attacks"
During the Ukrainian offensive, the city of Sudzha suffered only minor damage, with only a few residential buildings damaged, according to a "Foreign Policy" report. The town, with a population of 6,000, appears to have been captured with minimal resistance, indicating the shock that the Russians experienced upon the sudden Ukrainian invasion.
Meanwhile, the city center of Soledar is almost desolate, with few signs of life beyond its outskirts, reports "Foreign Policy." Russian flags have been removed and replaced with Ukrainian ones. A flag of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria also hangs in the city center. All that remains of a Lenin statue is a pedestal with a mutilated bust. The Ukrainians have also taken control of a Gazprom gas metering station near Soledar, which is the last functioning gas pipeline link to Europe from Russia.
Ukraine's Kursk Offensive: A Dilemma
So far, Ukraine's strategy in Kursk has not been successful. "We see that the Russians have primarily withdrawn troops from the Kharkiv area, not from Donbass," summarizes Colonel Markus Reisner of the Austrian Armed Forces on ntv. "However, we have yet to observe the Russians taking the bait that the Ukrainians laid for them. The Russians are still attacking in Donbass, but they have not achieved any significant breakthroughs at the moment."
The state of the various fronts in the Ukrainian war has mostly remained at an impasse for months. Neither army has made substantial advancements lately. The dilemma for Ukraine is that by launching another front in Kursk, it complicates rather than simplifies its situation. Kyiv now has to defend three fronts with the same number of soldiers: the Kharkiv region, Donbass, and Kursk.
"Back and Forth, Especially in Kursk"
Large-scale offensives are currently not feasible for the Ukrainian army anywhere. Instead, it aims to maintain the status quo as effectively as possible. "Since Ukraine can't go 'all in', it's now a back-and-forth situation, especially in Kursk," explains Reisner. "It's currently unclear who has the upper hand. However, even in this instance, Ukraine faces a problem, as Reisner points out on ntv: 'The longer this situation continues, the more it benefits the Russian side. The Russians still have resources to wear down Ukraine with guided missiles, artillery, and rocket fire. That is the dilemma that Ukraine faces.'"
Nevertheless, it is not an option for Ukraine to retreat from Kursk at this time. In fact, the surprise maneuver within Russian territory is currently Ukraine's best hope. Only if Kyiv's troops can maintain their positions in Kursk will Ukraine have some bargaining power if negotiations with Russian President Putin occur.
Kursk serves as a negotiation advantage for Ukraine, but the Russian leader isn't keen on dialogues at the moment. Consequently, Ukraine might need to maintain its stance in Kursk for several months. Thankfully, the military is now getting adequate supplies of ammunition, as reported by "The Kyiv Independent". Each month, an initiative spearheaded by the Czech Republic dispatches around 100,000 ammunition rounds.
Despite the recent regain of control by Russian forces in a few villages, Ukrainian forces are still holding onto the majority of territories captured in the Kursk region, as stated by Colonel Markus Reisner. This ongoing occupation of Russian land by Ukrainian troops presents an opportunity for potential future negotiations within the context of the European Union, as Ukraine seeks to prevent the conflict from solidifying in Russia's favor.
