Kuleba's departure is imminent, but not immediately so
During a crucial period of conflict against Russia, President Zelenskyy has chosen to dismiss Foreign Minister Kuleba and other cabinet members. This strategic move corresponds to a specific approach and reasoning behind Kuleba's departure. The international community might soon have the opportunity to engage with Kuleba in Brussels.
Onlookers may find the frequent changes in the Ukrainian government and President Zelenskyy's powerful administration surprising, especially given the devastating airstrikes in eastern Ukraine's Poltava and Lviv, which have captured media attention. However, these personnel shifts were not a sudden decision. For months, President Zelenskyy has hinted at the possibility of a major cabinet overhaul, which he has frequently mentioned in public.
In the summer, there were even rumors circulating about Denys Shmyhal, who has served as Ukrainian Prime Minister for over four years, potentially being replaced. While this is still a possibility in the coming months, the relatively low-profile 48-year-old technocrat seems secure in his position for now. This is not the case for the dismissed Minister of Justice, Denys Malyuska, who was dismissed from parliament along with other ministers on Wednesday.
Making Ministries Winter-Ready
Unlike Malyuska, not all ministers will depart from the Kyiv power system following their formal release by the deputies. Oleksandr Kamyshin, who has been serving as Minister for Strategic Industry, is likely to become Zelenskyy's advisor on economic and energy matters. Malyuska is expected to be replaced by the currently dismissed Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanyshyna. Stefanyshyna is anticipated to continue handling questions of European integration, in addition to her presumed role as Minister of Justice. A significant number of changes within the government and presidential office are likely, should they receive approval.
The timing of these personnel decisions can be attributed to several factors. The absence of permanent leaders in many ministries over the past few months necessitated these changes, anticipating a challenging winter with widespread power outages due to Russian airstrikes. The new ministers now have ample time to adapt before critical situations require immediate, decisive action.
Refreshing the Breeze to Avoid Exhaustion
President Zelenskyy is known for periodically making personnel changes and swapping positions between his presidential administration and the government. This practice aims to prevent "emotional exhaustion" and infuse new energy into the system. The resulting changes are likely to be successful, although fundamental shifts in the overall direction of the Ukrainian political apparatus are unlikely. In truth, it is Zelenskyy and his powerful chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, who steer the course of Ukrainian politics. There are few other prominent figures.
The Ukrainian parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, has yet to approve the dismissal of the popular and influential Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba. However, it is inevitable that this will happen.
Kuleba's Departure Garners International Attention
Kuleba's departure is being closely monitored internationally, as he is widely regarded as one of Ukraine's most influential voices. His potential dismissal, which has been a topic of discussion among Kyiv's political elite since March, is especially noteworthy given his prior role as Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration under Zelensky and his tenure as Foreign Minister since March 2020. At one point, Kuleba was even a frontrunner for the ambassadorial position in London. However, the position ultimately went to popular army commander Valeriy Saluschnyy, who was dismissed in February.
Deficiencies within the Foreign Ministry
The 43-year-old Kuleba, who holds the distinction of being Ukraine's youngest Foreign Minister in history, is expected to take up a role in Brussels. His mission: to strengthen Ukraine's relationships with the EU and NATO. Given Ukraine's unwavering transatlantic orientation, maintaining these connections is a top priority for Kyiv's diplomacy. with Kuleba's progressive mindset and fluent English, he would be an ideal candidate for this role.
However, Kuleba's departure is not devoid of reason. Despite being among Ukraine's better Foreign Ministers, who served during some of the most challenging times, the Ukrainian diplomatic service continues to grapple with a shortage of skilled personnel. It is often difficult to find suitable ambassadors, many of whom lack a diplomatic background, instead boasting political profiles. There is also significant criticism of the performance of the consulates. Improvement was not immediately expected after Russia's large-scale invasion two and a half years ago. However, the lack of meaningful progress is a source of disappointment in Kuleba's tenure.
A Successor Emerges
Zelenskyy typically expects innovation and fresh ideas from his team. In the realm of foreign policy, which is one of the Ukrainian President's primary constitutional responsibilities, Kuleba has appeared passive in recent years. Many of Zelenskyy's ideas, such as his peace formula and the peace summit in Switzerland last summer, were mainly implemented by the President's office. It is also reasonable to assume that the fundamental foreign policy of the Ukrainian state is dictated by the President's office rather than the Foreign Ministry.
It's no shocker who could potentially take over from Dmytro Kuleba's position: Andriy Sybiha, a 49-year-old Ukrainian diplomat with a long-standing career, has been in the spotlight. He's been the deputy head of the President's office since the mid-part of 2021, focusing on international matters. Starting from April 2024, Sybiha stepped into the role of the First Deputy Foreign Minister. Whispers in Kyiv have been circulating since spring about his imminent promotion, a move that seems imminent this week. A shift in Ukraine's foreign policy direction isn't anticipated.
Despite the international community's likely interest in engaging with Kuleba in Brussels, his departure from the Ukrainian government as Foreign Minister may be due to the challenges faced by the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, such as a lack of skilled personnel and criticism of consulate performances.
The European Union might find a new voice in Ukrainian foreign policy with the potential appointment of Andriy Sybiha as Foreign Minister, given his focus on international matters in his role as deputy head of the President's office.
