Kretschmer in the front, Ramelow down, BSW is growing strong
Early September will see state elections in Saxony and Thuringia. While in Dresden, Minister President Kretschmer can expect another term, much in Thuringia points to a change of government. The BSW is likely to be a significant political force in both states.
A few weeks before the Saxony state election, a majority for the government coalition is once again discernible. The CDU of Minister President Michael Kretschmer is polling at 34 percent. The SPD and Greens can currently expect 6 percent each, according to the Politbarometer of ZDF. The AfD would come in second with 30 percent, followed by the BSW with 11 percent. Other parties would not be represented in the Dresden state parliament, including The Left.
Minister President Kretschmer enjoys great support. Almost two-thirds of respondents (64 percent) want the 49-year-old to continue leading the government of the free state. Only 14 percent want AfD challenger Jörg Urban in the position of head of government - not even half of AfD voters. Overall, 60 percent of eligible Saxons want the CDU to continue leading the government.
Regarding political tasks, a quarter (25 percent) names migration as the most important issue. For 20 percent, the AfD and the right overall are the most pressing topics. 18 percent name school and education as the greatest challenges. Every tenth respondent mentions inflation, and every ninth respondent mentions the economic situation.
Greens miss out on state parliament in Erfurt
Like Saxony, Thuringia will also elect a new state parliament on September 1. The survey shows the AfD clearly ahead with 30 percent. The CDU follows with 21 percent, and the BSW can expect 19 percent, likely at the expense of The Left, whose result would be halved compared to the election five years ago. The three parties of the minority government of Bodo Ramelow trail behind: The Left is at 15 percent, the SPD at 7 percent. The Greens, currently part of the government, would not make it back into the Erfurt state parliament.
This means a change of government is possible in the free state, as the CDU under state chairman Mario Voigt has not ruled out a coalition with the BSW. However, the SPD would also have to switch sides. Thuringia would then also have a coalition with its own majority in parliament again after five years.
When asked about the next head of government, incumbent Ramelow is ahead, both against AfD state chairman Björn Höcke and against Voigt. More than a third (36 percent) think the CDU should lead the next government. Around 26 percent want The Left at the helm. And, as in Saxony, the proportion of those who find an AfD-led state government desirable (14 percent) is significantly lower than the survey result for the right-wing populists.
Regarding the greatest challenges in the free state, education (23 percent) is ahead of migration (22 percent), right/AfD (19 percent), and infrastructure (11 percent).
Finally, 67 percent of respondents in Saxony and 60 percent in Thuringia said their voting decision was already final three weeks before the election. This means that about a third of respondents have not yet made a final decision on which party to vote for.
For the survey, the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen polling institute reportedly interviewed 1003 or 1015 randomly selected eligible voters in the two federal states by phone and online from August 5 to 8. The survey is thus representative of the eligible population in those areas.
After the survey released, the CDU under state chairman Mario Voigt is considering a coalition with the BSW in Thuringia, which could potentially result in a change of government. The elections to the Landtag of Thuringia on September 1 show the AfD leading with 30%, followed by the CDU at 21% and the BSW at 19%.
Despite the lead of the AfD, a majority of respondents (36%) believe the CDU should lead the next government in Thuringia, with only 26% preferring The Left at the helm. However, a third of respondents in Thuringia have not yet made a final decision on which party to vote for.
