Keir Starmer can reign supreme
After his monumental election victory, Labour leader Starmer is set to move into 10 Downing Street soon. The Britons are promised a whole decade of national renewal by him. For this mammoth task, the future premier has a substantial majority.
Anyone with a nearly insoluble task must climb a mountain in English. "We have a mountain to climb": We must climb a mountain, Keir Starmer has repeatedly emphasized since he took over the British Labour Party. Now, his Social Democrats have not only reached some peak but, as renowned Sky News reporter Beth Rigby puts it, Starmer has "just conquered Everest and set off into space." The keys to the famous black door with the number 10 in Downing Street are set to return to Labour after 14 years of conservative rule. By Friday afternoon, King Charles III is expected to officially commission Starmer with the government formation as head of state. The 61-year-old will have a clear run.
According to the first forecast, 410 of the 650 parliamentarians could be Labour members. This is more than double the number of Conservatives in 2019 under then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Journalist Iain Dale quips, "Labour will have enough seats to form the strongest opposition faction." The tabloid "The Sun" headlines: "Britain is Red." Former Labour frontbencher Peter Mandelson speaks of a "Wahlmeteor" that has struck the country in the BBC.
Tories reduced to a third of the seats
Political conditions in the United Kingdom are in flux. The Conservative Party of former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has been decimated: According to the forecast, the faction will shrink to 131 members - the fewest since never and barely more than a third of the previous mandates. Sunak is expected to lose the leadership post in the party, and several contenders for his position are being discussed.
The exact size of Labour's majority is irrelevant in the parliamentary system of Britain. But of course, it makes governing easier for Starmer. The smaller the advantage, the greater the risk of being blackmailed by backbenchers on contentious issues. For Starmer, the way seems clear to implement his self-proclaimed claim and lead Britain through a "decade of national renewal."
In fact, Labour's vast majority could overshadow the risks for the designated premier. "Labour faces massive political challenges and is being carried by a broad coalition in the electorate, which is certainly wide but also very shallow," says political scientist Anand Menon from the King's College London. "It's easy to see which dangers lie in wait."
Broad currents within the Labour Party
Starmer must first keep all the currents within the party in check. Labour is not to be equated with the German sister party SPD. The spectrum would reach in Germany, if a comparison is attempted, roughly from the Left Party to the rather conservative Seeheimer Kreis in the SPD.
The left wing around former Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn, who lost to Conservative Prime Minister Johnson in 2019 and was subsequently pushed out by Starmer, must object if Labour moves too far into the political middle. The Conservatives have given that space with their strong right-wing course over the past few years.
Starmer now needs to convince the British people who didn't vote for him but Labour, as a means of punishing the Conservatives after 14 years of chaos, scandals, and economic stagnation. According to Professor John Curtice from the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow, the most famous pollster in the country, this was the verdict even before the prediction.
Large Majority Despite Few Votes
In the British first-past-the-post electoral system, only the winner of a constituency can make the leap into parliament. Votes for losing candidates have no effect. In reality, however, it is quite close: Although Labour could have achieved a two-thirds majority in the House of Commons, the party probably received significantly less than 50% of the votes. This is also reflected in the results of smaller parties. The Liberal Democrats are predicted to increase their number of seats fivefold, and Reform UK, the right-wing populists, are expected to go from zero to 13 MPs - significantly more than anticipated. "Labour must work hard in government to win back voters who voted for Starmer in 2024. They didn't vote Labour, they voted to get rid of the Conservatives," comments Sky News reporter Rigby.
Massive Challenges
That could be challenging. The country is facing enormous challenges. The National Health Service (NHS) is struggling, there is a severe housing shortage, prisons are overcrowded, there is a critical shortage of skilled labor, Brexit is still not resolved, and trust in politics is shattered. The list could go on.
However, there is actually no money to finance improvements and necessary investments. Labour wants to scrap tax breaks for private schools, close tax loopholes for wealthy foreigners, and increase the corporate tax rate for energy companies. However, nothing will change for private households, which are already under the highest tax burden in decades. Starmer and Labour face many more mountains after their first summit.
In the forthcoming British House of Commons election, the Conservative Party is predicted to see a significant decrease, with forecasts suggesting they will shrink to just 131 members, the fewest since their existence. Contrastingly, the Labor Party, led by Keir Starmer, is expected to secure a substantial majority of 410 seats, surpassing the number of Conservatives in 2019 by more than double.
