Kamala Harris recently scored one of her strongest survey results in 2023.
The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll, carried out by Selzer & Co., revealed Donald Trump leading with 47%, closely followed by the vice president's 43% – within the margin of error – in a state that Trump had previously won with ease twice over. (The poll was conducted last week, prior to the apparent assassination attempt against Trump on Sunday.)
Although Iowa likely won't be decisive in November's election, the fact that Selzer found a close contest in a state where Trump has remained dominant could bode well for Harris, both for the reliability of polling and her prospects in neighboring Wisconsin.
What makes the Selzer poll noteworthy is that it's been reliable in an era when other pollsters have struggled. Four years ago, it predicted Trump's win in Iowa by 7 points, while other polls suggested Democratic candidate Joe Biden was in a more favorable position. At the time, I noted that the poll had sparked hope in Trump supporters and anxiety among Democrats.
Democrats had warranted their fear. Not only did Trump win Iowa by 8 points, but he also outperformed his polling in Wisconsin – coming close to winning a state where he trailed by double digits according to pre-election polling. Trump did remarkably well in several other battleground states as well.
A similar trend was observed in 2016. Selzer's final poll had Trump leading in Iowa by 7 points. He went on to win the state and the election over Hillary Clinton, performing better than most swing-state polls predicted.
This year, there have been concerns about another polling blunder. Even as pollsters have endeavored to adjust their methods to prevent what happened in 2016 and 2020, they could still get it wrong.
However, Selzer's latest Iowa poll suggests that pollsters showing a race that is too close to call are not underestimating Trump at the moment.
The result aligns with the numbers coming from Wisconsin, which shares similar demographics and is one of the battleground states where the polling remains tight. Harris has received some of her best polling figures from Wisconsin.
The most recent poll from reputable Marquette University Law School put Harris at 52% to Trump's 48% among likely voters. An average of recent polls from Marquette, CBS News/YouGov, and CNN/SSRS has Harris ahead by 4 points.
While a 4-point advantage isn't substantial and can be easily overcome by Trump, it stands out among other key swing states. Harris and Trump generally maintain a close contest in the other six battleground states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania).
Furthermore, the 4-point Harris edge is better than Biden's winning margin in Wisconsin in 2020 – 0.6 points. This result fell far short of the lead he had in pre-election state polls. Wisconsin polling also significantly underestimated Clinton four years earlier, causing her to lose Wisconsin – the first Democratic loss since 1984.
The fact that the Selzer poll indicates a similar shift in Harris' favor in Iowa makes me think that the Wisconsin polls may be on to something.
Winning Wisconsin by Harris would not guarantee her victory, but it would improve her chances. Instead of the race being virtually 50/50, most models would give her a 75% chance of winning if she won Wisconsin.
However, a 75% chance of victory is not a guarantee. Trump's chance of winning would be approximately the same as the chances of a coin landing on heads in two consecutive tosses.
This Selzer poll could also be an outlier, and a lot could change between now and Election Day. Selzer's September 2020 poll was surprisingly favorable to Biden (showing a tie), while its final survey that year was much more supportive of Trump.
But the current poll is a far better result than the previous Selzer survey from June – when Biden was still in the race. It had Trump leading by 18 points.
In conclusion, you'd rather have the Selzer poll on your side than not. And currently, the survey suggests a better result for Harris than it did for either Clinton or Biden in the end.
The consistent pattern of Selzer's polls accurately predicting election outcomes, despite other pollsters' struggles, is noteworthy, particularly given its 7-point prediction of Trump's win in Iowa four years ago.
The close contest in Iowa, as suggested by the Selzer poll, might foreshadow a tight race in other battleground states, such as Wisconsin, where Harris also enjoys strong polling figures.
