Kamala Harris must surpass the essential elements to secure victory.
Instead, Trump and Vice President Harris are closely matched in polls at the moment. However, it remains uncertain whether Harris can maintain this momentum, convincing numerous voters who feel we're on a wrong course. What is undeniable is that Harris would need to defy certain long-established norms if she wishes to emerge victorious in the upcoming elections. This tendency has historically been observable but not as prevalent as the current figures suggest.
Recently, just about 28% of Americans seem to think the nation is on the right track, according to the latest NBC News survey. This figure is significantly lower than when Joe Biden took office in 2021, where the percentage was noticeably higher than 40%.
Indeed, 28% isn't a figure that the incumbent's party seeks to achieve a month before an election, whether the sitting president is running or not. When the incumbent's party has managed to win elections since 1980, on average, 42% of Americans believed the nation was heading in the right direction. However, in cases where the president's party has lost, just an average of 25% of Americans felt assured of this direction. Presently, this figure closely mirrors the 28% currently expressing such confidence.
A thorough analysis of the figures reveals that no party in power has ever managed to secure another term when fewer than 39% of the public believed the nation was moving in the right direction.
Another important indicator of public opinion working against Harris is approval ratings. Though these ratings are less predictive in situations where the incumbent is not running again, they have some significance. No incumbent's party has ever emerged victorious when the president's approval rating has surpassed his disapproval rating.
At present, Biden's disapproval rating is around 10 points higher than his approval rating.
These two elements point towards a challenging situation for Harris in November.
Gallup has examined ten various metrics crucial to an election, ranging from party identification to satisfaction with the economy to presidential approval. Eight of these metrics were positively indicative of Trump, while the remaining two were neutral. None of the indicators suggested a Harris victory.
A significant contrast
Despite these statistics indicating a Trump victory, Harris may possess a strategic advantage: the 2022 midterm elections.
Recall the midterms from two years ago. Biden's approval rating was virtually identical to its current state. A mere 26% of Americans, according to an average of polls, thought we were on the right track as a nation. This figure was the lowest heading into a midterm election in the previous 40 years.
In essence, there was an absence of indicators favoring the Democratic Party at that time, which is not the case now.
However, despite these unfavorable trends for the Democrats, they managed to limit their House losses to single digits, expand their Senate majority, and win several governor's seats.
Two significant factors that contributed to the Democrats' success in 2022 are still present: Trump and abortion.
Trump maintains a negative net favorability among American voters. If elected president in the upcoming election, he would be the least popular winner since himself in 2016. Harris, in contrast, enjoys favorable opinions in most surveys.
Abortion continues to rank prominently among all issues, more than two years after Roe v. Wade was overturned. Measures to expand abortion access appear on ballots in a variety of states this autumn. Every presidential election in the past 50 years occurred while Roe was still the law of the land. The implications for voters upset about the loss of federal protections for abortion remain unclear.
In summary, a trend established over the last 44 years of presidential elections contrasts with the lessons learned from the 2022 midterm elections, contributing to this election's intrigue.
As the saying goes, "the past is often a prologue," but sometimes, history fails to be repeated.
In light of the recent polls and approval ratings, it's clear that Vice President Harris faces a challenging political landscape in the upcoming elections. With her approval rating trailing behind her disapproval rating and only 28% of Americans believing the nation is on the right track, Harris needs to defy established political norms to emerge victorious.
The contrary trends of past elections versus the 2022 midterms add an intriguing layer to this election, further underscoring its political significance in the realm of American politics.
