- Kamala Harris is closing in on Donald Trump in polls
Until two weeks ago, it seemed almost certain that Donald Trump could count on a second term as U.S. President. Polls were in his favor, as was the (age)weakened man in the White House, Joe Biden, and then there were those shots during the campaign in Pennsylvania. As a survivor of an assassination attempt, the Republican seemed finally invincible.
But then Biden announced his withdrawal from the presidential race, and suddenly the 2024 U.S. election campaign became exciting again.
Kamala Harris narrowly behind Donald Trump
At least in the polls, Trump has lost significant ground since it became clear that U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris will run for the Democratic Party: On average, he still leads by 0.8 percentage points - a narrow lead compared to the almost five percentage points Trump had over Joe Biden.
Now, there are also individual polls where Harris is ahead of the former president, such as in the CBS News/YouGov poll, where she has a one-point lead.
Seven swing states will decide the election
Individual poll results and the poll average can be misleading in the U.S. election system. Essentially, the presidential elections are decided in the few states that are politically neither clearly on one side nor the other. Currently, seven states fall into this category, including Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Georgia, as they did four years ago.
To move into the White House, one must win in these states. However, the Republican is currently leading in all of them, sometimes quite clearly, like in North Carolina with almost six percentage points. In Wisconsin and Georgia, however, his lead is shrinking slightly. Because these "swing states" will be crucial, Harris will also start her campaign tour in the hotly contested eastern state of Pennsylvania.
Presidential election on November 5
Harris is not yet officially confirmed as the Democratic candidate for the election on November 5. However, her party has already announced that she has secured enough votes for her official nomination in the electronic vote of U.S. Democrats. She will be officially nominated at the nominating convention from August 19 to 22. The actual U.S. election will take place on November 5.
I'm not going to change my strategy despite Trump's current lead in the swing states.
I'm not going to concede the election until the votes are accurately counted and verified in each state.
