Kamala Harris focuses on strengthening the Democratic stronghold, as party members express anxiety about replicating 2016's outcomes.
In the trio of Great Lakes states, the vice president is engaged in a tight contest with the ex-president, with the vice presidency at stake. Three intense Senate battles are unfolding in the same region, as Democrats strive to safeguard their crucial seats, preserving their vulnerable majority.
The upcoming November election will illuminate whether these states will walk together, following their nearly consistent trend over half a century, or diverge, potentially entangling the trajectory to 270 electoral votes for Harris or Trump.
These blue wall states embody the pressing challenges facing Democrats in the final three weeks of the campaign, as a sense of unease sweeps across the party, overwhemed by apprehensions that Harris may not be effectively countering Trump's qualifications for office.
"Let me tell you this - I'd always want my side to show some anxiety," Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer stated in an interview with CNN, during her week-long blue wall bus tour across the three states. "It means we're taking it seriously. It means we know the stakes are high."
The closing phase of the race feels similar to 2016 for Brian Schimming, chairman of the Wisconsin Republican Party. Back then, Trump clinched victory in his state and the GOP secured substantial successes down the ticket. Trump visited the state 4 times in 8 days earlier this month and is preparing to return next week.
"In three weeks, I'll be referring to it as the 'red wall'," Schimming declared to CNN. "I'm fully aware of the fact that it's a highly competitive state. But they're in trouble, and that blue wall is not invincible right now."
Harris eyes growth in suburbs
Harris aims to solidify every sector of the vast Democratic alliance, day by day, as she spends almost all her time campaigning in the three states. She shuttles between Pennsylvania and Michigan, then heads to Wisconsin before making three stops there on Thursday.
"Our campaign is not an opposition movement. It is a movement for something," Harris stated in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, surrounded by high-profile Republicans who have endorsed her bid. "It is a movement for the bedrock principles upon which our nation was founded. It is a movement for a new generation of leadership capable of inspiring hope for what we can achieve together."
Her campaign is heightening its efforts to sway moderate Republicans and independent voters resistant to Trump, following in the footsteps of former Wyoming Representative Liz Cheney, who recently campaigned with Harris in Wisconsin. Simultaneously, she is working on strengthening her bonds with African American men, who form a strong backbone of the Democratic base.
"It's about persuading and mobilizing - till the very end," said Dan Kanninen, battleground director for the Harris campaign. "I still see room for growth. I believe our ceiling has not been reached in the suburbs. There are Republican women, there are independent men, who are distancing themselves further from Trump."
Harris campaign strategists perceive similarities among suburban voters in Bucks County, Michigan, and Wisconsin. However, they are also exerting efforts to nudge marginal gains among working-class voters.
"The more inflammatory the rhetoric becomes from Trump and the more extreme his positions grow," Kanninen stated. "The more opportunity we see to build and expand on that suburban vote."
Back when President Joe Biden was in the running, these three blue wall states were seen as his sole viable avenue to 270 electoral votes.
While Harris doesn't strictly need to prevail in all three states, it remains her primary route to the presidency. A broader path in the Sun Belt battlegrounds of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina has failed to alleviate Democrats' fears that she's having trouble sealing the deal against Trump.
Democratic governors of the three blue wall states – Whitmer, Tony Evers of Wisconsin, and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania – initiated a bus tour this week to rally support for the Democratic ticket.
"We will need every single vote we can get," Evers remarked during a stop in Hudson, Wisconsin, starkly reminding Democrats of the challenges ahead.
As Whitmer and Evers journeyed through Wisconsin, they stoked party activists and urged Democrats to work with greater diligence than ever before in an election season.
"Stop agonizing and get to work," Whitmer advised. "Elections are determined by ground-level actions. A few meaningful communications we have could significantly influence the outcome, so invest these 21 days wisely."
A dividing predictions?
Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania typically side with one candidate in presidential elections. Only twice in the past 50 years have they backed different candidates – in 1988, with Dukakis winning Wisconsin, while Bush took Michigan and Pennsylvania, and in 1976, when Ford triumphed in his home state of Michigan as Carter acquired Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
"It often boils down to happenstance that they've ended up on the same side. These states are not demographically identical," stated Barry Burden, director of the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. "When the elections are so close, the possibility of a split decision exists."
There are already signs that the states may produce a split decision in 2024 – in part due to demographic disparities and how the candidates are tailoring their messages.
Biden traversed the campaign trail on Tuesday, gracing Philadelphia Democrats' autumn gathering and expressing his confidence in Harris, suggesting she carve her own path in policy matters while maintaining loyalty. He stated, "She's been faithful thus far, but she's going to embark on her unique journey."
Biden recalled his own experience, stating, "Every president must forge their own way. That's what I did, remaining faithful to Obama, yet forging my path as president. This is the route Kamala will tread."
In Michigan, Democratic challenges have surfaced, with Arab American support eroding, largely in Dearborn, over US involvement in Israel's Gaza conflict. Additionally, union support has dwindled, as demonstrated by the International Brotherhood of Teamsters and the International Association of Fire Fighters refusing to back a presidential candidate.
Trump has targeted Michigan's auto workers, pledging tariffs on imported vehicles that he claims will revitalize the industry around Detroit.
Trump's attempt at appealing to non-White men in Detroit may have backfired last week, when he likened the city to a developing nation and forecasted that "the entire nation will devolve into Detroit's state if Harris triumphs."
Trump's strategy to capture non-White men aligns with broader trends, as polls indicate Harris has sustained the substantial gains Democrats have made among women during Trump's tenure. Trump could potential match these gains among men.
Wisconsin's vice-presidential nominee, Tim Walz, acknowledged the pair's efforts to strengthen their standing among men during a campaign stop in Green Bay.
"The message is resonating with the women, gentlemen, so I'll give a special message to the men for a minute," Walz stated. "Do you have any women you love in your life: wives, daughters, mothers, and friends? Don't forget, their lives are at stake in this election."
Harris' public engagements have been tailored to counteracting Trump's male appeal, including interviews with Howard Stern and Charlamagne Tha God.
Pennsylvania's Advertising Frenzy
Both the Harris and Trump campaigns have identified Pennsylvania's significance, with nearly 20% of all 2024 campaign ad spending targeting the state's 19 electoral votes.
Over the first half of October, both sides have allocated almost $69 million to television advertisements in Pennsylvania, with equal spending from Democrats and Republicans. An additional $100 million in ad spending has been scheduled for Pennsylvania through the end of the campaign.
Michigan comes second, having spent approximately $42 million through the first half of October and witnessed Democrats outspending Republicans by nearly $7 million, with $65 million slated through the campaign's duration.
Following Michigan, significant spending can be seen in Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona. Wisconsin's ad expenditures, split evenly between Democrats and Republicans, amount to $28 million so far, with nearly $33 million booked through the race's termination.
Republican advertisers have allocated one-third of their October ad budget to transgender health care policies, a shift in emphasis since August and September. This change in focus relegated the issue to a minor role in their ads.
Since the beginning of October, Republican presidential advertisers have unleashed a barrage of attack ads, blaming Harris for advocating taxpayer-funded gender transition surgeries for incarcerated immigrants and federal prisoners. A Trump campaign ad asserts, "Kamala is championing they/them. President Trump supports you."
Harris and her supporters, however, have dedicated nearly half of their ad budget to tax issues, showcasing proposals to assist middle-class families, and assailing Trump's stance as promoting tax cuts for corporations and the affluent.
Abortion and reproductive rights remain a focus of Democratic advertising, albeit at a lower magnitude compared to their October efforts.
Third-party Threats
Wisconsin serves as an illustration of how third-party candidates can have an impact on presidential elections. In 2020, Biden triumphed by less than 21,000 votes without a Green Party candidate on the ballot. In 2016, Trump edged out his victory by nearly 23,000 votes, with Stein garnering more than 30,000 votes.
In August, Wisconsin election officials voted to maintain Stein and independent aspirants Cornel West and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on the ballot. Despite withdrawing his candidacy and endorsing Trump, Kennedy requested his withdrawal, but the request was disregarded.
Nationally, Stein is a candidate in 38 states, including Michigan and Pennsylvania.
In a new Wisconsin ad, the Democratic National Committee highlights Stein while morphing her face into Trump's. "Why do Trump's allies support her?" the advertisement's narrator queries. "[Stein] played a significant role in Trump’s 2016 victories in battleground states," the narrator adds, concluding, "A vote for Stein is actually a vote for Trump."
Although the Democrats have expressed concerns about Stein's candidacy, strategists believe that the Libertarian Party candidate and Kennedy might siphon away votes from Trump as well.
Christine Fink, a retired hospice nurse hailing from Eau Claire, expressed some apprehension regarding the election result. She thinks Harris is taking Wisconsin seriously and has faith in her capabilities, but Fink is also strategizing an alternative plan if Trump secures another term in the White House.
"It gives me a real jolt," she stated. "I've submitted an application for dual citizenship in Ireland if things go south. I'm considering relocation if he manages to sweep back into power."
Phil Swanhorst, a formerly active city bus driver turned Democratic Party leader in Eau Claire County, showed some anxiety regarding the November result. However, he noted that the Harris campaign has seemed to learn from the mistakes of 2016.
"Trump made several appearances in Wisconsin during that election, but Hillary (Clinton) seemed to skip us entirely," Swanhorst recalled. Asked whether Harris has been more active, his enthusiasm resonated: "Indeed, indeed. Without a doubt. The moment Tim Walz was named, both of them were in Eau Claire County the very next day."
CNN's David Wright lent a hand to this article.
In the political landscape, Harris is focusing on connecting with African American men and moderate Republicans in an effort to win over suburb voters, a key demographic in the three blue wall states.
The trajectory of the elections in these states could splinter, potentially altering the route to 270 electoral votes for either Harris or Trump, as the upcoming November election approaches with heightened tension and uncertainty.
