ISW: Vladimir Putin is in political crisis
To repel the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region, conscripts are likely to be deployed as well. According to the ISW, this could put President Vladimir Putin in a bind due to past promises. Complaints are already starting to surface.
The Russian forces, according to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), are now better able to defend against Ukrainian attacks in the Kursk region. However, geolocated footage and Russian reports suggest that Ukrainian forces have largely maintained their positions and have recently made some gains. Russia is deploying experienced soldiers from other fronts in Ukraine and conscripts, the ISW reports.
However, the use of conscripts could still cause problems, according to the assessment of the US think tank. Russian opposition and social media channels have begun to distribute complaints from family members of Russian conscripts involved in border defense operations.
The Kremlin faced "significant societal backlash" in the spring of 2022 for illegally sending conscripts to the front. There is "great concern" in the Russian government about public reactions to the deployment of conscripts, the ISW says.
There have been repeated protests by women and mothers against the Kremlin in recent years over the treatment of their sons at the front. Authorities have sometimes cracked down hard on protests. In Russia, there was a strong movement of soldiers' mothers in the late 80s and 90s who protested against the treatment of their sons in the army.
Kremlin could adjust rhetoric
Past promises could once again come back to haunt Vladimir Putin. As late as March 2022, he tried to reassure the mothers of Russian conscripts by emphasizing that Russia would not send them into combat.
Later, the Kremlin leader was criticized for relying on conscripts to repel border incursions by pro-Ukrainian forces and to respond to the mutiny of the Wagner Group in the summer of 2023, the ISW says. The purpose of deploying conscripts to the border was likely to free up conventional combat forces previously responsible for border security for deployment in Ukraine.
"The Kremlin may be forced to justify its controversial reliance on conscripts in border security operations to calm the Russian society, as Putin had done after controversies in 2022 and 2023," the Institute for the Study of War writes.
Russian State Duma deputy and former deputy commander of the Southern Military District, Lieutenant General Andrei Gurulev, has already recently explained on Russian state television that the participation of conscripts in combat operations is normal. Gurulev justified this by citing the use of conscripts in the Soviet-Afghan War and the Chechen Wars.
Several Russian conscripts have already been captured in the course of the Ukrainian offensive, which began on August 6. In Russia, conscripts are typically drafted in two waves each year, with approximately 250,000 conscripts being called up annually.
The attack on Ukraine has placed President Vladimir Putin in a challenging position due to past assurances that Russian conscripts would not be sent into combat. Following the use of conscripts in border defense operations, there have been growing protests and criticisms from Russian society, echoing historical movements of soldiers' mothers.
