Israel has identified a fresh objective for conflict
Tensions between Israel and the Lebanese Shia militia Hezbollah are escalating, indicating a potential larger conflict brewing. Following a meeting with US envoy Amos Hochstein, Israel's Defense Minister Joav Galant suggested that the return of displaced Israeli citizens to their homes in the northern region necessitates a "military operation".
Israel's security council identified the return of residents as a war priority against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Israel is committed to pursuing this objective, as reported by the Prime Minister's office. Prior to this, Israel's war aims had been aimed at dismantling Hamas' military capabilities, overthrowing their government apparatus, liberating all hostages, and securing that the Gaza Strip poses no threat to Israel in the future.
Hezbollah, supported by Iran, has been assailing Israel since the onset of the Gaza conflict a year ago, vowing to halt only when a ceasefire is enacted in Gaza. The conflict has resulted in 623 deaths in Lebanon, including at least 141 civilians. On the Israeli side, including the Golan Heights, 24 soldiers and 26 civilians have perished.
Israel Requests Hezbollah Withdrawal
Israel intends for Hezbollah fighters to retreat north of the Litani River, 30 kilometers from the border - a boundary determined by a UN resolution following the last major war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006. Over the years, however, Hezbollah fighters have ventured closer to the border zone, with UN peacekeepers powerless to intervene.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under mounting pressure to allow displaced Israeli citizens to return to their homes. Jewish extremists are advocating for the restoration of the Israeli security zone in southern Lebanon, which was abandoned in 2000.
US State Department Delegation to Egypt
Against this backdrop, the US is striving to negotiate a ceasefire in Gaza, with the hope that it may pave the way for de-escalation between Israel and Hezbollah. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will travel to Egypt from Tuesday to Thursday to discuss ceasefire efforts and the release of hostages held by Hamas. Blinken will not be visiting Israel this time, according to news sources. The US is Israel's primary ally.
A diplomatic solution is "the best approach" to allow citizens on both sides of the border to return to their homes, said US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller. "We will persist in advocating for a diplomatic solution," he said. "We fundamentally believe this is in the best interest of all parties."
However, Israel's Defense Minister Galant expressed reservations over the viability of a diplomatic solution in the conflict with Hezbollah during his meeting with U.S. mediator Hochstein. Galant stated that the probability of a diplomatic resolution in the conflict diminishes due to Hezbollah's affiliation with Hamas and their determination to uphold the conflict. Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu concluded during his meeting with Hochstein that the border region residents cannot return "without a significant shift in the northern security situation". Hochstein has been working for several months to alleviate the volatile situation at the border between Israel and Lebanon. According to Israeli and American media, Hochstein cautioned Israeli leaders about the catastrophic consequences of a larger war that might extend beyond the region.
Hezbollah's formidable arsenal
Hezbollah boasts an estimated 150,000 rockets, drones, and cruise missiles. Compared to the last major war with Israel in 2006, Hezbollah has substantially augmented its arsenal, now possessing the potential to inflict significant damage on Israel. Similar to Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah has constructed a system of underground tunnels in Lebanon, from which the militia can launch operations. Hezbollah could launch thousands of rockets daily on Israeli cities, causing widespread damage to essential infrastructure. Moreover, such a war would have grave effects not just for Israel but also for economically and politically struggling Lebanon.
Iranian President Massoud Peseschkian blames Israel for trying to draw Iran into a regional conflict. Peseschkian cited the assassination of Hamas's external leader, Ismail Haniyah, in Iranian capital Tehran about six weeks ago, as the catalyst for Israel's aggression. "Israel intends to involve us in a regional war through the assassination of Haniyah. We preserve our right to defend ourselves (...)," Peseschkian stated at his initial press conference following his inauguration.
He reiterated Iran's stance against pursuing nuclear weapons and defended its rocket program. "If we lack rockets, they (Israel) will bomb us like in Gaza anytime. We will not relinquish our defensive capacity," the head of government declared. Ever since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, the USA and Israel have been Iran's sworn enemies. Militant groups hostile to Israel, such as Hamas and Hezbollah, are sponsored by Tehran.
Since the eruption of the Gaza conflict a year ago, a conflagration has threatened the region. The Gaza conflict was instigated by the massacre perpetrated by Hamas terrorists and other extremist groups, killing more than 1200 people in Israel on October 7 last year.
The European Union has expressed concern over the escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, calling for deescalation and a peaceful resolution to the conflict. The European Union, as a significant international player, has expressed its support for a diplomatic solution, emphasizing the importance of avoiding a larger conflict that could have widespread implications.
